TURKEY: ESKISEHIR AMBIVALENT TOWARD AKP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001833

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: ESKISEHIR AMBIVALENT TOWARD AKP

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, for Reasons 1.4 (b
,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Two and a half hours west of Ankara, the
prosperous industrial city of Eskisehir, population 750,000,
is preparing for elections with mixed feelings for the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP). The home of dwindling
reserves of soft Meerschaum mineral used for carving pipes
and jewelry, Eskisehir is a comfortable and modern place,
known as a Balkan and Crimean migrant town of earlier
generations. END SUMMARY.

A City on the Move
--------------


2. (U) Eskisehir (literally "Old City") is a small but
wealthy city, with a striking diversity of modern
architectural styles but a place of honor for the traditions
of the past. Ottoman wooden houses downtown have been
refurbished, painted bright colors, and will serve as
guesthouses. Eskisehir's prosperity is evident from the
flower beds and iron fence work along the Porsuk river, the
city's brand-new tram, and pedestrian zones. Even the
newspaper kiosk is a handsome iron grille-work structure that
would be at home in Salzburg or Munich. Four theater stages,
a symphony orchestra, an opera house, and numerous parks
speak to the growing sophistication of Eskisehir's
inhabitants. Eighty percent of the population of Eskisehir
lives within the city boundaries.


3. (U) The city is the industrial heart of an agricultural
province. Hundreds of companies -- producing everything from
high-end clothing and biscuits to engines for F-16s -- are
already thriving, and industrial leaders are trying to
attract high-tech and software companies. The Chamber of
Industry (one of only a handful in Turkey) chairman is keen
on his chamber's independence from the Chamber of Commerce,
and its political independence. A two-university town,
students bring liveliness and tolerance to Eskisehir,
according to the vice rector of Anatolia University. His
institution's reach penetrates the entire country; through
its "Open University," Anatolia takes advantage of internet
technology to expand a distance learning program it began
over 30 years ago and make it available to huge numbers
(current enrollment is over one million). Osman Gazi
University, meanwhile, emphasizes high-tech subjects
well-suited to the future aspirations of Eskisehir.


4. (SBU) The outlying regions of the province are
agriculturally-oriented and make Eskisehir the sixth largest
wheat-growing province in the country, according to the
chairman of the Chamber of Agriculture. Sugar beets are also
a top product. However, government-imposed quotas have
reduced capacity to one-fifth, and producers are struggling
to make ends meet. Twenty-five percent of farmland is
irrigated in Eskisehir.

Election Preparations: Mixed Feelings for AKP
--------------


5. (C) Governor Kadir Calisici observed that active election
campaigns are very civilized this time. He noted that most
parties upheld a gentlemen's agreement that the governor
designates areas for public propaganda. There has been no
violence or vandalism associated with the campaigns.
Currently 3 AKP deputies and 3 opposition Republican People's
Party (CHP) deputies represent Eskisehir at the national
level, but most contacts agreed that AKP is likely to lose a
seat to the Nationalist Action Party (MHP). Mayor Yilmaz
Buyukersen, a rare Democratic Left Party (DSP) member --
widely credited with dramatic improvements in Eskisehir's
infrastructure and appearance while squared off against an
AKP-dominated municipal council -- asserted that the CHP-DSP
merger had created a good synergy. He also decried AKP
obstructionism and tricks. He claimed that Prime Minister
Erdogan recently wanted to be the hero of the hour at the
ribbon-cutting of a new industrial park in Eskisehir, but the
site wasn't completed; AKP organized a ribbon-cutting just
the same, and it looked good on television -- but Eskisehir
residents knew that it was the old industrial park being
"opened."

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6. (C) We repeatedly heard (from non-AKP sources) that
Eskisehir son AKP deputy Murat Mercan is intensely disliked
for his role in obstructing development projects and
investment. Mercan is AKP's second-row candidate, behind the
imported Finance Minister Unakitan. Chamber of Industry
chairman, Savas Ozaydemir, fresh from his meeting with
Democrat Party (DP) chairman Mehmet Agar, boasted that he had
demanded that Eskisehir be represented by a minister, and
three parties -- AKP, CHP, and Genc -- had produced ministers
or former ministers as their first-row candidates, a signal
of the importance they attach to the province.


7. (C) AKP does not appear as popular in Eskisehir as in
2002, when it won 29 percent of the vote, but the problems
seem locally-focused; some community leaders were sanguine
about the alleged threat the party poses. The vice rector of
Anatolia University was "not concerned at all" about AKP;
"they couldn't change the High Education Council (YOK),so
could they really change Turkey?" (The vice rector reserved
his stronger criticism for YOK, which cherry-picks political
issues on which to take a stand.) Chamber of Industry
complained about the failure of AKP to revise its economic
policy in the past year, but acknowledged that they had done
a good job overall and that, despite the chairman's own
unspecified political preferences, the best thing for
Eskisehir's industry would be an AKP single-party government.
He also claimed to be utterly unconcerned about an
independent Kurdistan, "unless they demand Turkish lands,"
and then "every single Eskisehir resident would head to the
southeast" to put an end to such pursuits.


8. (SBU) The Chamber of Agriculture chairman, Ibrahim
Cetinkaya, criticized the fact that there are no
farmer-parliamentarians, and said NOW 30 farmers nationwide
were included on the party lists of AKP, CHP, and DP. He was
not optimistic that any would find a seat in parliament on
July 22; "maybe next time." He criticized the AKP for acting
"like the government of the EU, not Turkey."

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON