TURKEY: LONG ODDS IN SUNDAY'S ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001820

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: LONG ODDS IN SUNDAY'S ELECTION

REF: ANKARA 1797

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, for Reasons 1.4 (b
,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Opinion polls appear to have coalesced
around the idea that only three parties will enter parliament
in the wake of Turkey's July 22 general election. However,
given the notorious unreliability of opinion polls here,
several long-shot parties taking a "hail Mary" pass could do
better than predicted and cross the 10 percent threshold,
while shoo-ins could do unexpectedly worse. END SUMMARY

Democrat Party In?
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2. (C) As the undecideds start to make up their minds,
Democrat Party (DP) chairman Mehmet Agar could be proven
right that his party can still cross the 10 percent threshold
into parliament (reftel). Currently stuck at around 6-7
percent in the polls, DP may tap its traditional reserves in
rural areas ignored by pollsters. DP may benefit from some of
the "I can't stand Baykal" vote abandoning the Republican
People's Party (CHP). The more pious portion of the stalwart
center-right Anavatan/Motherland voters (whose party has
withdrawn from the election) might go to the ruling Justice
and Development Party (AKP),but some who pay heed to the
moderate tone of DP's election manifesto will likely go to
DP, as may some fed up with polarization of the parties in
parliament. DP's entering parliament also depends on Agar
successfully getting out the message, "Don't NOT vote for DP
because you fear your vote may be wasted." In the event of a
four-party parliament, depending on the seat distribution,
AKP could potentially just retain single-party government,
but DP could also be a potential coalition partner.

Genc (Youth) Party In?
--------------


3. (C) An Istanbul economist recently told us that his driver
claimed he would vote for Genc because party chairman Cem
Uzan, who bilked Motorola for $2 billion, had succeeded in
"sticking it" to an American company. When we recounted this
anecdote to several contacts, all said they had heard similar
stories. We have also heard rumors from several sources that
through the wealthy, pious confectioner family Ulker, AKP is
directing some support in Genc's direction to help split the
opposition; Asli Aydintasbas tells us that AKP was
deliberately leaving Genc alone until this week to allow it
to sap MHP strength. Genc is competing with Nationalist
Action Party (MHP) and CHP for the populist nationalist vote;
but for voters fed up with all parties in parliament and
specifically with CHP leader Baykal for leading an
ineffective opposition, populist Genc may be a last-minute,
at-the-ballot-box choice. Its presence in parliament would
not be a constructive one (GP is the only party to not
publish an election platform but instead to run on the
sloganeering of its leader Uzan and reflected glow of
superstar candidate Ibrahim Tatlises),but could give an edge
to an anti-AKP coalition.

MHP out?
--------------


4. (C) Conventional wisdom holds that MHP is a safe bet on
Sunday -- they have played this up themselves -- but a few
polls still show the ossified party with the uninspiring
leader below the election threshold. In such a case, a
renewed two-party parliament (AKP and CHP) is conceivable,
probably with each claiming an enhanced mandate
percentage-wise, and AKP potentially holding a majority large
enough to change the constitution. Right-wing nationalist
votes not cast for MHP might be redirected to GP or possibly
even the more moderate DP.


5. (C) COMMENT. In an election where minuscule margins may
have large impact, fairness of voting and accuracy of
counting -- for which there is a high degree of confidence in
Turkey, although minor, isolated problems have occurred in
the past -- will be all the more important. Seat
distribution will depend somewhat on the independents, whose

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success will eat into the tallies of both AKP and CHP.
However, the main factor affecting seat distribution is the
number of parties entering parliament; if a party achieves 10
percent of the national vote, it might get 40-80 seats, but
if it gets 9.99 percent, the number of seats is zero. Past
election outcomes like 2002's stunning failure of all but two
parties to cross the 10 percent threshold, or 1999's surprise
success for MHP catching the "Hang Ocalan" wave at the edge
of legislative oblivion are an important reminder that in
Turkey, polling is poor and voting is volatile. END COMMENT.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON