TURKEY: OPPOSITION LEADER BAYKAL CALLS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001771 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2017 TAGS: PGOV ECON PTER PREL TU US SUBJECT: TURKEY: OPPOSITION LEADER BAYKAL CALLS FOR COMPROMISE IN PRIVATE MEETINGS Classified By: PolCouns Janice G Weiner, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary and comment: In separate meetings with Ambassador and Staffdel Makovsky, main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) chairman Deniz Baykal and CHP vice chair Onur Oymen outlined the party's election platform and plans. In both meetings, Baykal was focused and responsive. He recognizes that CHP has an uphill battle against the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) and has structured its election lists to run strong candidates where the going is toughest. Baykal wants a new approach to combating the terrorist PKK, which he sees as today's most divisive issue between Turkey and the US. Along with terrorism, many voters are voicing strong concern over unemployment and economic issues. Baykal the candidate comes across one-on-one as a man searching for solutions, who is prepared to compromise -- if approached -- on issues such as the presidency. End summary and comment. Presidential sweepstakes -------------- ¶2. (C) On the heels of the July 5 Constitutional Court decision to allow an October referendum on constitutional reforms to move to direct popular election of the president, Ambassador hosted a lunch with Baykal and Oymen. CHP does not see the move to direct presidential elections as positive, Baykal said, since Turkey could end up with all major posts (president, prime minister, speaker of parliament) held by one party. However, as the measure is very popular and it would not be good politics to oppose it, CHP may opt to leave it up to voters. ¶3. (SBU) Baykal expects the presidential election calendar to remain on track, in spite of the pending referendum. After the July 22 election, once the new MPs take their oath and elect a speaker, they will move to presidential elections. This will have to be done in a coordinated fashion, possibly simultaneously, with forming a new government. If the election results are "clear", President Sezer will likely give the mandate to the head of the leading party to form a government while the presidential election proceeds. ¶4. (C) The decision on a presidential candidate must, Baykal stated, be a collective one. He could even accept an AKPer if he is the right one and if selected through consultation. The candidate must be liberal, believe in the Constitution's basic tenets, be honest, willing to collaborate with institutions and other political parties, not partisan, and not religiously militant. Neither FM Gul nor PM Erdogan would have been acceptable, even had AKP consulted with CHP. The question of whether the president's wife can wear a turban (the all-covering headscarf) is not ripe now; the country has more pressing issues to deal with, Baykal said. CHP's stake in the parliamentary race -------------- ¶5. (C) Baykal acknowledged that CHP is fighting an uphill battle against AKP, though they expect AKP's overall seat count to diminish, their own to increase and a third party -- likely the National Action Party (MHP) -- to cross the 10% threshold. For example, when asked about why Oymen's election district was switched from Istanbul to Bursa, Baykal explained the need to have a strong team there, led by someone with excellent credentials who can speak to the many migrants from northeastern Anatolia and Bursa's people of Balkan origin. When asked if CHP is strong in Bursa, both Baykal and Oymen immediately said no -- it is AKP territory where CHP must work hard to get its message across. PKK and Turkish-US Relations -------------- ¶6. (C) Turning to US-Turkish relations, Baykal emphasized that the PKK is the number one issue between our countries and called for a new approach. Everyone sees it is serious but is frozen like a deer in the headlights. Baykal stressed that the PKK is a regional problem, not just Turkey's problem; a neighboring country cannot support a terrorist organization, as Barzani essentially is doing. He understands how difficult eliminating the PKK is, but sincere, candid willingness to solve the problem is needed, such as giving Barzani strong messages. If the US ANKARA 00001771 002 OF 002 acknowledges that, it might lead to positive developments, Baykal said. Ambassador explained that we are taking this very seriously. General Ralston has been working hard to change minds in Washington, he added, an approach Baykal genuinely seemed to appreciate. In his meeting with Staffdel Makovsky, Baykal elaborated on possible new anti-PKK tactics, to include stopping any terrorist movement against Turkey from Northern Iraq and ending the Iraqi Kurds' tolerance of the PKK. These would be positive signs that would help dispel the belief that the US and Iraqi Kurds could do something but won't. ¶7. (C) Baykal told both the Ambassador and Makovsky that Turkey is not the Iraqi Kurds' enemy. However, they appear serious about their greater Kurdistan project that would include part of Turkey. The US should understand this and work against it. Baykal did not want to believe the US also supports a Kurdistan that would annex Turkey's southeast, but could not understand why the US doesn't firmly reject the idea. The Ambassador responded that US and Turkish goals on territorial integrity of both Iraq and Turkey are identical and will remain so. The Economy: Stability Remains Paramount -------------- ¶8. (C) Baykal stressed that CHP wants to maintain the current economic stability, but with increased industrialization to create new jobs. Party leaders would need to convince the international financial community that CHP will continue sound economic policies once in power, including adhering to the IMF program. However, labor costs in Turkey are exorbitant, creating a drag on potential industrial investments; they had just lost out on a Hyundai plant because of this. Turkey needs new industrial production to help solve foreign trade and current account deficit problems as well. CHP will accomplish this through tax incentive policies, Baykal explained. ¶9. (C) Voters' biggest concern is unemployment, according to Baykal. The agricultural sector, among others, is suffering -- it lost some 1.3 million workers in just the past year. While Oymen focused on terrorism as a primary concern, Baykal saw economic issues as key, with terrorism running a close second. Other issues, such as secularism, headscarves, etc., he acknowledged were nowhere near the top of people's agendas. Religion -------------- ¶10. (C) Baykal stated that religion is being used as a political tool. When young girls are forced to wear the headscarf, it is a political statement that eventually becomes a subject of societal pressure. This is dangerous and risks turning Turkey into Iran. Europeans, he said, are finally starting to wake up to this. Secularism versus religion remains one of the major cleavages in Turkey and the world, he told Makovsky. In Turkey, where people have not fully absorbed the necessity of secularism, restrictions in Afghanistan and Iran are finally making it clear why it is vital to preserving Turks' way of life. AKP (and others going back to Adnan Menderes and Suleyman Demirel) started a process of religious-oriented reforms that they will not be able to control, Baykal warned. Retired politicians from the Menderes/Demirel eras now admit that CHP was right to warn them about this years ago. Now they support CHP against AKP efforts to open society to more overt religious expression, he claimed. AKP does not take the long-term view, but CHP looks ahead and sees the danger. Eventually, he stated, there will be no tolerance of those who choose not to fast, wear the headscarf, abstain from alcohol or pray five times a day. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON