CHP'S PLATFORM - FEARMONGERING AND HANDOUTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001714

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: CHP'S PLATFORM - FEARMONGERING AND HANDOUTS


Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for Reasons 1.4 (b,
d)


1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Combining fear-mongering and
saber-rattling with promises of handouts, the nominally
center-left Republican People's Party (CHP) has crafted a
platform so audacious it might actually work. The party
devotes most of the platform to condemning the ruling Justice
and Development Party (AKP) for undermining the secular
nature of the Turkish Republic, subordinating Turkey's
interests to those of the US, ineffectively fighting the PKK,
and failing to bring prosperity to the masses. Its
indictment of AKP is elaborate, but CHP offers few
substantive counterproposals outside the social and economic
spheres. It has put together an incentive package that
promises universal health care, an end to poverty, and a 250
YTL scholarship for every university student, and much
more--all without a plan to raise revenues. In the
politically uneasy environment following the emotional
"Republic Rallies," in support of secularism and against
terrorism, CHP's platform--stoking public outrage while
promising fool's gold--presents a potent, populist challenge
to the AKP. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

Pro-Secularism: Preserving Ataturk,s Legacy
--------------


2. (SBU) CHP's platform concentrates on defending the secular
nature of the Turkish state. Likening the danger posed by
AKP to an "incubus" attempting to infiltrate the state, CHP
praises the millions who rallied against FM Gul's
presidential candidacy for their vigilance. CHP stresses
that AKP -- having sparred with the military, presidency,
judiciary and educational system -- is a repeat offender in
picking fights with the state. CHP's alarmist tone appears
aimed at shocking the secular electorate into voting. CHP's
manifesto also condemns AKP "merchant politicians" for
corruption, calls for an end to parliamentary immunity, and
rails against AKP's privatizations.

Foreign Policy: An End to "Surrenderism"
--------------


3. (SBU) In an unsubstantiated rant, CHP accuses AKP of
repeatedly bending to the will of the United States in
exchange for US support for AKP's domestic agenda. CHP is
particularly critical of AKP over its initial support for the
US in the 2003 invasion of Iraq and promises to base Turkey's
relations with the United States purely on "mutual interests
and respect." It also condemns the additional protocol on
Cyprus and explicitly vows to offer no further concessions on
the issue. CHP declares its intention to move forward with
EU accession negotiations but vows not to kowtow as much as
AKP has.

Terrorism: You,re either with us or the PKK!
--------------


4. (C) Repeatedly invoking images of "martyrs" (i.e., fallen
soldiers) slain by the PKK, CHP condemns AKP for not showing
enough grit in the fight against terrorism and for leaving
Turkey to the "mercy and initiative" of the US and EU. CHP
lambastes the Iraqi government for failing to comply with its
international obligations to pursue PKK terrorists, undermine
their support network, and secure the border. CHP even
accuses Iraq of directly supporting the PKK. While CHP's
manifesto does not outline any plans explicitly, it promises
to end terrorism and force the United States and Iraqi
government to choose between Turkey and the PKK. (In recent
days, CHP leader Deniz Baykal has repeatedly accused AKP of
committing not to intervene in northern Iraq in return for
U.S. financial assistance in 2003. Baykal's accusation has a
kernel of truth: the U.S.-Turkish Financial Agreement signed
-- but never brought into effect -- required the U.S. to
determine that Turkey had not intervened unilaterally in
northern Iraq before each disbursement.)


Economic and Social Reform: Dangling Carrots for Everyone
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ANKARA 00001714 002 OF 002



5. (SBU) CHP criticizes the ruling party for neglecting
unemployment and social welfare and proposes a series of
reform and relief measures. While aspects of the platform
seem promising, most appear to be populist tricks intended to
win votes rather than encourage sustainable growth. CHP
promises to reduce unemployment, NOW officially at 11%, by
50% within five years, primarily by funding "Work for Youth"
projects and implementing a fast growth economic policy
promoting exports. It further promises to double
agricultural subsidies, reduce fuel oil prices, and relieve
farmers of rising debt. On the welfare front, CHP proposes
universal health coverage and plans to implement a
"zero-hunger" project, entailing transfer payments to poor
families. CHP claims it will overhaul the educational system
by increasing the basic education requirement to ten years,
eliminating the university entrance exam, and channeling more
students to vocational schools. Finally, CHP will provide a
250 YTL scholarship to all university students. None of
these proposals will be cheap but CHP's platform is
conspicuously lean on details of how the party will increase
revenues. CHP is not alone in its outrageously populistic
economic proposals. The opposition parties are leading the
charge in a bidding war to promise unaffordable but
vote-getting economic policies.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON