TURKEY STILL UNDECIDED ON AMMUNITION CONTRIBUTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001703 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2017 TAGS: MARR MOPS PTER PREL PGOV TU LE SUBJECT: TURKEY STILL UNDECIDED ON AMMUNITION CONTRIBUTION TO LEBANESE ARMED FORCES REF: ANKARA 1331 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Political-Military Counselor Carl Siebentritt, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: We followed up with MFA Head of Department for Middle East Affairs Sedat Onal on July 2 to press for a contribution of 105MM and 155MM ammunition to the Lebanese Armed Forces to assist in their continuing battle against Fatah al-Islam. Onal said that, with national elections two weeks away, the government fears opposition criticism for providing support to far-off Lebanon while PKK terrorists coming from northern Iraq are killing Turkish citizens at home in the southeast. He said that, to his knowledge, the military has not yet responded on the availability of the ammunition. We reminded him that the situation remains urgent and the LAF needs help now. End summary ¶2. (C) From a political perspective, Onal said, the government is concerned that, two weeks before the July 22 general elections, the opposition will use a contribution of ammunition to Lebanon to criticize the Justice and Development (AKP) government for caring more about problems in countries with which Turkey does not share a border than it does about PKK terrorism emanating from neighboring Iraq. According to Onal, the government fears a repeat of the negative opposition backlash to its decision a year ago to contribute troops to UNIFIL for this reason. ¶3. (C) With respect to technical considerations, Onal stated that he had not yet received information from the Turkish General Staff (TGS) regarding the military's perspective on whether, and how much, ammunition could be donated. We noted our understanding from contacts in TGS J-4 Logistics division that TGS had notified the MFA of its opposition to a contribution but was subsequently requested by the MFA to reconsider this decision. Onal claimed no knowledge of such an exchange with the military but stated that it could have been conducted at a higher level without his awareness. 4.(C) Aside from these considerations, Onal stated Turkey's perception that the ammunition shortage is not as serious as it is being portrayed. The MFA is under the impression that the situation has stabilized somewhat and that the two sides may have come to some type of accommodation. We noted our sharply contrasting understanding that intense fighting continues and that the LAF is in real danger of running out of ammunition. If that were to happen, Fatah al-Islam could roll back the LAF gains and the situation could worsen. Onal pledged to disseminate this information within the MFA and to TGS and to work for a decision soon. Referring to the impending elections, he emphasized, however, that we are at a time when "quick decisions are hard." Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON