TURKEY: ONE VOICE FROM VAN - WE ARE AT THE TIPPING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001590 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2017 TAGS: PGOV PTER TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: ONE VOICE FROM VAN - WE ARE AT THE TIPPING POINT BUT THERE IS A WAY BACK REF: A. ANKARA 1581 ¶B. ANKARA 1560 Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary and comment: Lamenting that he had to focus on politics instead of economics, the Chamber of Commerce president in the eastern city of Van expressed serious concern over Turkey's current political-military conjuncture, predicting that if all parties do not engage in dialogue, the results could be disastrous. He keyed off of dialogue between Ankara and the KRG in northern Iraq as potentially pivotal for the whole region. He hoped that if the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) gains a foothold in parliament after the July 22 elections, it will attempt to use politics to attain its goals. His voice of moderation -- recognizing the costs of violence, calling on all to lay down arms and pursue political options -- is one that needs to gain greater currency, volume and listenership in Turkey today. End summary and comment. ¶2. (C) Van Chamber of Commerce president Zahir Kandasoglu opened his July 11 meeting with Adana PO and Ankara PolCouns by saying he wished he could talk about economic prospects in Van, but the recent up-tick in clashes between the terrorist PKK and the Turkish military made that impossible. He abhorred recent events and found both sides unjust. The PKK had declared a unilateral cease-fire in October 2006; it should not have broken it to return to arms. Turkish General Staff (TGS) actions and announcements had contributed to increased violence and -- now renewed economic ills -- in Turkey's southeast. Every day, he lamented, people are dying -- both Turkish soldiers and "other young people". "We warned the government earlier that they should do something about the problem before it grew. If the US had really gotten involved, it would not have come to this," he lamented. In his view, the US should have gotten down to brass tacks with Chief of the General Staff (CHOD) Buyukanit when he was in Washington in February since, in Kandasoglu's opinion, after Buyukanit's Washington visit, his attitude "changed completely". Like it or not, the US, he emphasized, has a significant role to play. ¶3. (C) In Kandasoglu's view, the heart of the matter is not the PKK, but that the military and the Turkish state establishment feel threatened by the KRG and the notion of Kurdish autonomy next door. Some sort of deal is needed. Asking the KRG to somehow handcuff the PKK is unrealistic. "If the powerful Turkish military can't rout the PKK in Tunceli province," he asked, "how can we expect the KRG to deal with them?" ¶4. (C) Kandasoglu's main pitch was that the US should undertake a serious mediation role between Turkish and KRG officials; talks could focus on economics and then, as a by-product, more sensitive issues. Otherwise, the trend line would continue to be bad, with the current reciprocal mud-slinging and threats continuing. Turkey needs to establish honest, straightforward cooperation and dialogue with the KRG. By the same token, it would be a mistake for the KRG to bully Turkey. Turkey, he stated, is already fully engaged in a fight against terrorism at home, cannot afford to open up a second front in a neighboring country. Not only Turkey, but others would suffer as well. ¶5. (C) Democrat Party (DP) leader Mehmet Agar has said the PKK should lay down its weapons and solve the country's problems in the political arena, Kandasoglu continued. If that happened, support for the PKK would evaporate. After 30,000 deaths and 2700 village evacuations, he hopes the PKK will abandon its weapons for politics and that the Democratic Society Party (DTP) will pursue rational policies. They should have their say in parliament, not in the mountains. ¶6. (C) In the current polarized, nationalistic atmosphere, millions of Turks have turned anti-US and anti-EU -- and ongoing events would only strengthen them, Kandasoglu predicted. When GOT officials cannot participate in soldiers' funerals without being booed, the situation is bad and only further empowers those who make politics over dead ANKARA 00001590 002 OF 002 bodies. People have started to doubt the sincerity of the US; many now believe the US is somehow supporting the PKK. The longer the situation in northern Iraq remains unresolved, the more people will dislike the US. Moreover, the greater the build-up of both troops and rhetoric in the southeast, the less people are able to criticize the TGS. And if the military suffer more losses, no one will be able to stop them from going over the border. But, he concluded, if they get into northern Iraq, they won't find it so easy to get out. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON