TURKEY-EU TROIKA MEETINGS: TURKEY'S EU ACCESSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001515

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2017
TAGS: PREL EU TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY-EU TROIKA MEETINGS: TURKEY'S EU ACCESSION
PROCESS SPUTTERS ONWARD

REF: ANKARA 1454

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice Weiner for reasons 1.4(b) and
(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Turkey-EU Troika consultations held June 4 in
Ankara were constructive and served to underscore the
continued mutual commitment to pursuing eventual Turkish EU
membership, according to GOT and EU officials. Turkey's
membership aspirations continue, and the technical process,
though slowed by the EU's December freezing of negotiations
on eight chapters as a result of Turkey's refusal to open its
ports to Cypriot vessels, is moving ahead as well. The
question of how many additional chapters will be opened for
formal negotiation later this month remains. However, the
negotiation process continues, notwithstanding French
President Sarkozy's apparent determination to end it as well
as faltering public support in Turkey. END SUMMARY

CONSULTATIONS SHORT BUT SUBSTANTIVE
--------------


2. (C) Turkey-EU Troika consultations held June 4 in Ankara
were short but substantive, focusing not only on Turkey's
membership aspirations, but on broader international topics.
According to various EU member state embassy officials here,
the meetings lasted only three and a half hours due to German
FM Steinmeier's commitments later in the day in Berlin for
Germany-Canada consultations. In addition to Steinmeier, the
EU delegation was led by EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli
Rehn and Portuguese State Minister Joao Cravinhoas. Turkey's
key representatives included FM Abdullah Gul, State Minister
and Chief Negotiator on EU Accession Ali Babacan, Foreign
Policy Advisor to the PM and FM Ahmet Davutoglu, and MFA
Under Secretary Ertugrul Apakan, among others.

TURKEY'S EU ASPIRATIONS
--------------


3. (C) Ahmet Dogan of Turkey's Secretariat General for EU
Affairs said the EU delegation underscored the Union's
continued commitment to the negotiations and reiterated the
hope that formal talks on an additional three chapters could
be initiated before the end of June. Dogan said the three
chapters under consideration, on Economic and Monetary
Policy, Financial Controls, and Statistics, have no opening
benchmarks which Turkey needs to clear prior to the opening
of negotiations. Should the EU decide to move forward as
planned in these three areas, Turkey would be asked to submit
an opening position paper for each chapter; GOT bureaucrats
are busy preparing those.


4. (C) In contrast to Dogan's optimism about moving ahead
with all three chapters, German Embassy officials here said
that Steinmeier offered no such assurances. The German
presidency objective is to proceed if possible. They see the
process as open, and open-ended; whether or not member states
object to opening all three chapters at the moment, the
process itself will continue. Steinmeier noted that a large
majority of EU countries favor Turkey's candidacy, but it is
no secret that some - and at least two in particular (Cyprus,
France) - are critical. Steinmeier indicated to his Turkish
hosts that Turkey must help turn them around.

Sarkozy and Turkey's EU Accession
--------------


5. (C) Reports of French President Sarkozy's determination to
offer Turkey status short of full membership, perhaps as
early as this December, have received considerable media
attention here and contributed to a backlash among the
Turkish public against EU membership talks. French embassy
officials confirmed press reports that Sarkozy's government
intends to try to block opening of negotiations on the
Economic and Monetary Policy (EMU) chapter. They pointed
out, however, that it may be too late. Dogan noted France
and Cyprus view opening negotiations on three new chapters as
rewarding continued Turkish intransigence on opening its
ports to Cypriot vessels; they are pressing to open just one
new chapter. He said the GOT will be disappointed, but not
surprised, if in the end the EU offers to open two new
chapters. Ironically, Turkey has a good story to tell on the
EMU, as it is already in compliance with two of the
Maastricht criteria only six years after its financial
crisis. Moreover, a Turkish EU Secretariat official pointed
out to us that opening the EMU chapter is purely symbolic in
any case, because nothing really happens on this chapter
until the Eurozone is ready to admit the accession country,

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after the country gains EU membership. The French officials
lamented that French efforts will only worsen soured
bilateral relations over the French parliament's passage of
an Armenian genocide resolution last Fall.

EU Keeping An Eye on Turkey
--------------


6. (C) Turning to domestic politics, FM Gul told the EU
delegation that Turkey-EU relations would play a role in the
July 22 general elections. Gul expressed hope that the
Turkish electorate would decide to re-elect a party committed
to continuing the EU negotiation process. Commissioner Rehn
underscored the EU's hope that Turkey's election would be in
accordance with democratic principles and Turkey's
constitution. Gul reiterated the Justice and Development
Party (AKP)-led government's commitment to pursuing the
reform agenda established earlier in the year in its EU
roadmap. He also indicated the next government, presuming
AKP is again in power, would take up the process of passing a
new Foundations Law and reform of penal code article 301,
both of which have been high priorities for the EU.
According to Dogan, the EU delegation emphasized the
importance the EU gives to Turkey's continued work in
enhancing freedom of expression and freedom of religion, as
well as trade union rights. The Troika also criticized the
military's role in Turkey, pointing to the April 27 "coup-by
memorandum" that many believe influenced the constitutional
court's decision to negate the presidential election process.
At the same time, Dogan said the EU delegation emphasized
its support for Turkey's secular democracy, which many Turks
would read to mean support for AKP's more secular opposition.


7. (C) Steinmeier pointed to the April 18 murders of three
Christians in Malatya as a big concern for the EU, which also
reflected very negatively for Turkey in the European press.
He stressed the need for a change in mentality among Turks
toward religious minorities and recommended that GOT
ministers meet with leaders of these communities. Steinmeier
expressed the EU's continued commitment to Turkey in its
fight against PKK terrorism but appealed for GOT restraint
and no precipitous action in connection with its struggle
against the PKK in northern Iraq. Gul responded that Turkey
has no hidden agenda regarding Iraq; it wants a unified Iraq
that is friendly, democratic, and stable. However, a lack of
sovereignty causes chaos, which breeds terrorism. Gul said
the PKK has gained access to weapons and explosives and the
ability to freely train its cadres in northern Iraq. Turkey
is expecting more urban bombings and the GOT is concerned
about how the Turkish public and media will react in the
current politically-charged environment.

Searching For a Way Forward on Cyprus
--------------


8. (C) On Cyprus, Steinmeier said the German presidency would
continue to put forth its best effort on a new trade
regulation for direct trade with northern Cyprus and opening
ports/airports. State Minister Cravinhoas pledged similar
effort on the part of the Portuguese. However, Steinmeier
said that even if no progress is made on direct trade, Turkey
remains obligated in the EU's eyes to open its ports and
airports to ROC trade. The Turks predictably countered with
the need to end the isolation of Turkish Cypriots and to find
a solution under UN aegis to the continued division of the
island. Gul blamed the Cypriot government for obstructionism.

Cooperation on Central Asia
--------------


9. (C) The Troika and Turkish delegations also discussed
Iran's nuclear ambitions, the Middle East Peace Process and
intra-Palestinian factional fighting, ongoing fighting in
Lebanon, prospects for Turkish-EU cooperation in Central
Asia, and efforts to improve ties between Turkey and Armenia.
On Central Asia, Steinmeier described a change in EU
strategy, now focused not only on energy but in helping push
for positive change in the entire region. The EU wants to
enhance EU-Central Asia cooperation on transport routes and
civil society dialogue, as well as energy projects like
Nabucco. The GOT delegation spoke of the great potential for
Turkish-EU cooperation in this region, especially in energy.
MFA Deputy U/S Cevikoz described the four "D's" of the
Turkish approach: democracy, dialogue, development, and
diversification. The Turks recognized that the Central Asian
states had for too long been under the thumb of big brother;
they were being careful not to appear to be a newer, more
modern version of the same. The Portuguese added that

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EU-Central Asia consultations would take place on the margins
of UNGA later this year. Cravinhoas also appealed for
Turkish pragmatism in its dealings with Armenia, viewing the
lack of bilateral ties as an obstacle to greater regional
cooperation.


10. (C) COMMENT: Despite political forces determined to drive
Turkey and the EU apart, the process continues to sputter
forward. With the AKP government having made EU accession a
centerpiece of its program, it is struggling to resist rising
anti-EU sentiment in Turkey and a more openly hostile
Euroscepticism from the military. Technocrats working
outside the glare of the media spotlight remain fully
committed to ensuring the process lives on. High profile
officials like Olli Rehn continue to warn of the dire
consequences for relations between the West and Islam should
Turkey's aspirations be extinguished. On the Turkish side,
Minister Babacan said the alternative to Turkey's EU
avocation is to be a third world country. The July 22
elections will help clarify whether the Turkish public - now
slightly favoring membership - sees the EU accession process
as an unacceptable national humiliation or a worthwhile
effort. In the meantime, planning for future Turkey-EU
cooperation will continue.


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WILSON