TURKEY: ONE OF THE NEW BREED OF AKP CANDIDATES -

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001451 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2022 TAGS: PGOV ECON PINR TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: ONE OF THE NEW BREED OF AKP CANDIDATES - ITS HIS KNOWLEDGE, NOT HIS POLITICS REF: ANKARA 1437 Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Mehmet Simsek is an unknown in Turkish politics. But he now has the #1 slot on the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) election list in Gaziantep, virtually ensuring him entry to parliament after the July 22 election - and his possible elevation as minister. Who is Simsek and why did AKP snap him up? Simsek is an economist who has worked for the past 8-9 years for Merrill Lynch in London; he is also a former Embassy Ankara Econ FSN. He is smart, likes what he has seen of AKP's economic policies and reforms to date, and wants to help make them better. He is also just one of a number of newcomers on AKP's lists designed to either help in specific policy areas, show a more moderate face, and/or help with the outreach to other parties and existing institutions that AKP has largely ignored to date. Simsek was one of the AKP's nominees for Governor or Vice-Governor of the Central Bank last year, but President Sezer rejected Simsek apparently because of his closeness to the AKP, his Kurdish ethnicity, or his American wife and previous employment at the U.S. Embassy. ¶2. (C) What convinced Simsek to make the leap from finance to politics? Apparently, a combination of AKP policies and PM Erdogan himself. Simsek first met Erdogan in London two years ago, when the PM called on him to talk banks, specifically state versus private. At the time, Simsek told us, Erdogan was convinced that he needed to retain one or two state-owned banks to carry out government business. The PM listened so long to Simsek's explanation of why private banks could do the job just as well, that he delayed his flight back to Ankara for an hour to continue the conversation. And the PM indeed changed his mind. Simsek's conclusion: this is someone who listens, learns, is open to new ideas, and gets it on economic policy. ¶3. (C) According to Simsek, his more recent experience talking to the AKP decision-makers in Ankara has been similar. He's been explaining the microeconomics of how to improve productivity/increase employment without increasing inflationary pressures, and advising them how to improve their economic program overall. His sense was that not just Erdogan, but the AKP leadership cadre as a whole, understand the importance of the right economic policies and are prepared to further refine their current, already good course. Simsek's previous meetings with other parties indicated they did not understand basic economic theory. If AKP buys what Simsek is selling, he expects to see the roll-out post-election. ¶4. (C) Simsek also pointed to privatization -- which, he noted, helps reduce corruption by taking away tools government officials and MPs could use to provide jobs to constituents -- and comprehensive social security reform (currently derailed by the Constitutional Court) as moves that the GOT had made that were designed to improve the economy, not please voters. He singled out FinMin Unakitan's implementation of tight fiscal policies as another considerable achievement. ¶5. (C) What disturbed Simsek the most, he said, was what he termed the military's apparent lack of regard for any of these achievements and their willingness to place it all at risk. In Simsek's view, the extent of Turkey's integration with the global economy, combined with reforms already enacted and increased investments in education make Turkey's direction irreversible. He told he us cannot imagine an "Iran scenario" in Turkey -- maybe in the 1970s, when the country was in chaos and closed in on itself; not now. He also expressed concern with what he termed the "dark war" already at work against him: unsourced, libelous news pieces that appeared about him in the weeks and months before he resigned from Merrill Lynch to run with AKP. All the accusations, he stated, were patently untrue, but no one bothered to check them; it appeared to him to be a smear campaign aimed at either preventing him from running or tarnishing his name before he could get on a ballot list. ANKARA 00001451 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Simsek obviously made a good impression on the PM as well. When submitting his application to be an AKP candidate, per Simsek, the PM told Simsek just to use him as a reference. The PM also made it clear that he does not expect Simsek to be a "politician" and advised him not to try. Simsek's ultimate slot on the list was clearly more than the "within the top eight on one of the Istanbul lists" that the PM told Simsek to expect. ¶7. (C) Simsek noted to us one thing that has changed markedly in certain echelons of Turkish society: education. Simsek is a Kurd, born and raised in a poor village in the Southeast, the youngest of nine siblings. His mother died when he was five. His sisters did not attend school -- it just wasn't done. He was fortunate enough, as he described it, to get a good education, a scholarship and opportunity that allowed him to move up in the world, rather than moving up into the mountains (i.e., joining the PKK). His nieces and nephews, however, now all have university degrees. It is a different generation with different expectations. (Comment: Not only are villagers moving into the big and medium-sized cities across Turkey, but as universities and educational opportunities expand, they are being educated in greater numbers -- and both they and the newer generation of entrepreneurs want a bigger piece of the pie. End comment.) Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON