TURKEY: GOVERNING AKP MOVES TO CENTER, PURGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001437 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2017 TAGS: PGOV ECON PREL TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: GOVERNING AKP MOVES TO CENTER, PURGES ISLAMISTS IN ELECTION LISTS Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary and comment: The biggest story of Turkey's just published election lists is the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) overhaul of its roster, boosting the party's centrist bona fides and purging much of the specifically Islamist wing and those who voted "no" on March 1, 2003. Through this and by reaching out to life-long social democrats, Alevis and technocrats, PM Erdogan -- the lists' primary architect -- has sent a series of messages, primarily to domestic, but also to foreign audiences. Among them: (1) party discipline matters; (2) AKP will walk the centrist walk; (3) Erdogan wants to expand the brain trust that can further inform AKP's policy platform, and (4) bring in figures who can build bridges with other parties and existing state institutions (sorely lacking until now); and finally, (5) relations with the US matter (in both directions). The PM may also hope that it would be harder for the military to object to a visibly more centrist AKP. In purging many of his own, Erdogan has taken a leadership risk and created instant enemies -- in some cases, estranging friends of two decades -- and making almost any vote in parliament from now on difficult, if not impossible. End summary and comment. -------------- AKP dumps traditional Islamists ... -------------- ¶2. (C) PM Erdogan, the architect of AKP's parliamentary election list, spoke loudly when he dropped some 160 of AK's current 352 MPs members and brought in new faces to give the party a more solidly centrist image. Many of the outgoing deputies come from the party's Islamist National View wing. Those to whom Erdogan gave the boot include, AKP MP Egemen Bagis confirmed to us, most of those who voted "no" on March 1, 2003. Bagis expressed surprise at the broad scope of the purge. The PM also expunged all those of whom he was personally aware who may have been involved in corruption or other scandals. In so doing, the PM has made himself 160 instant enemies, many of whom were long-time friends. According to Bagis, the PM's sweeping changes were intended to send a number of messages, among them: party discipline and a clean image matter; and relations with the US matter. ¶3. (U) Media commentators see this shift as both Erdogan's attempt to bring AKP to the center and to isolate parliamentary speaker Bulent Arinc, closely associated with the party's National View wing. While some commentators are skeptical that the change is more than skin deep, Sabah's Asli Aydintasbas claims that the lists prove Erdogan "took off his National View shirt" and should be regarded as a serious manifesto of change. ¶4. (C) AKP fell short on its promises to women and youth. Having touted the slogan, "81 women from 81 provinces," AKP nominated just 63, and only 12 hold "safe" slots likely to result in parliamentary seats. Even this number is a significant improvement, however. AKP included 54 candidates between the ages of 30-35, but most are far down on the lists. -------------- ... and reaches out -------------- ¶5. (C) Among AK's new faces are: --Environmentalist and social democrat Ertugrul Gunay, who takes the number two slot in Erdogan's district and has been included with party top dogs in the election declaration committee; being in Erdogan's district will multiply his effect, as the two will be seen together in Istanbul campaign speeches. --Academic Nazmi Haluk Ozdalga, a former theoretician for the opposition People's Republic Party, who has been given a safe slot in Ankara. --London investment banker Mehmet Simsek, a former Embassy economic FSN, who takes the top position in Gaziantep and may ANKARA 00001437 002 OF 002 end up a minister, if AK is involved in the next government (septel). --Long-time Embassy contact and Turkey's German Marshall Fund director Suat Kiniklioglu, who holds the number two slot in Cankiri (all three of which went to AKP in 2002). --Independent Businessmen's Association (MUSIAD) former chairman Bayram Ali Bayramoglu takes the front row in Rize (a direct competitor to former PM Mesut Yilmaz, tarred with corruption scandals, running there as an independent). --Prominent Alevis, including close Embassy contact Reha Camuroglu and Ibrahim Yigit, will work to tap the previously incompatible Alevi vote; Camuroglu has a safe place on the Istanbul list; Yigit is just three slots behind. In strongly Alevi Tunceli province, Alevi Haydar Dogan tops AKP's list. -------------- Not on the lists ... -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Notably absent from the lists are Ertugrul Yalcinbayir, an MP of National View heritage known for telling truth to power, parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Mehmet Dulger (whose wife is running on the DP ticket),and controversial parliamentary Human Rights Committee Chairman Mehmet Elkatmis. Deputy Prime Minister Abdullatif Sener did not apply for candidacy, reportedly because he was upset at his lack of influence on the party list in his home province of Sivas (however, he Erdogan included him in the election declaration committee). Also absent is Kurdish former deputy Hashim Hashimi, whose candidacy -- proposed by Abdullah Gul -- ran aground on Erdogan's objections. -------------- Why did they do it? -------------- ¶7. (C) Erdogan appears to have designed his party's list based on his push to turn AK into "Muslim Democrats" -- a conservative, centrist party, in the mold of Europe's Christian Democrats. In so doing, the party has drawn in traditional rivals like Alevis and social democrats. AKP's move to the center has sufficient credibility that a high level center-right Democrat Party (DP) official bemoaned AKP's now-solid grasp of two typically Turkish characteristics: mainstream Islam and center-right conservatism. Erdogan's list also confirms that he will brook no dissent from within. The depth of the changes leaves a large body of disgruntled MPs. Adana deputy Abdullah Caliskan indicated after a meeting of about 100 MPs -- some of whom, once they lose their parliamentary immunity, may find themselves subject to prosecution on a variety of charges -- that they would even look to postpone elections. Another long-time Erdogan friend and Gaziantep MP, now among the ousted, groused to Bagis that Erdogan had accomplished what the Turkish General Staff had failed to do: dividing AK from within. That is perhaps the best indication that the PM made tough decisions to cut where it hurts. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON