TURKISH ALARM ABOUT AFGHANISTAN ABATES; PRESSING

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001398 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS AF TU SUBJECT: TURKISH ALARM ABOUT AFGHANISTAN ABATES; PRESSING FOR POLITICAL PROCESS TO EASE OUT DOSTUM REF: ANKARA 1344 CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR ROSS WILSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE GOT BELIEVES THE JUNE 3 FIRING OF JOWZJAN PROVINCIAL GOVERNOR JUMA KHAN HAMDARD HAS TEMPORARILY ALLEVIATED TURKEY'S MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN THAT TENSIONS BETWEEN AFGHANI PRESIDENT KARZAI AND WARLORD GENERAL ABDUL RASHID DOSTUM WOULD BUBBLE OVER. ACCORDING TO MFA OFFICIALS, KARZAI'S NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR RASOUL HAS AGREED WITH THE GOT VIEW THAT FORCIBLY REMOVING DOSTUM AS LEADER OF JUNBESH-E-MILLI AND EITHER ARRESTING HIM AND/OR EXILING HIM WOULD CREATE AN UNACCEPTABLE LEVEL OF INSTABILITY IN NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN. THE TURKS HAVE SPOKEN TO DOSTUM AND BELIEVE THEY HAVE HIS AGREEMENT TO A POLITICAL PROCESS THAT WOULD LEAD TO A SUCCESSOR ACCEPTABLE TO DOSTUM TAKING THE REINS OF HIS PARTY. DOSTUM MIGHT THEREAFTER AGREE TO DEPART FOR TURKEY FOR AN INDETERMINATE PERIOD OF TIME, ALLOWING TENSIONS TO EASE. HOWEVER, THE GOT KNOWS DOSTUM WELL ENOUGH TO KNOW THAT NO DEAL IS FINAL UNTIL IT HAS OCCURRED. THE TURKS ALSO INFORMED US THEY HAVE GOTTEN AGREEMENT FROM THE AFGHANIS AND PAKISTANIS FOR AN INITIAL MEETING ON JULY 6 IN ANKARA OF A TRILATERAL WORKING GROUP, ATTENDED AT THE UNDER SECRETARY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS LEVEL, WHICH WAS AGREED TO DURING THE KARZAI-MUSHARRAF SUMMIT IN ANKARA IN APRIL. END SUMMARY LET DOSTUM LEAVE ON HIS OWN TERMS -------------- ¶2. (C) DURING A JUNE 5 MEETING THAT TOUCHED BRIEFLY ON TANK ROUNDS FOR LEBANON, IRANIAN ARMS TRANSFERS TO HEZBOLLAH DISCOVERED DURING A PKK BOMBING OF A TRAIN IN EASTERN TURKEY, AND GOT IMPLEMENTATION OF UNSC RESOLUTIONS ON IRAN (ALL REPORTED SEPTELS),MFA DEPUTY UNDER SECRETARY FOR MIDDLE EAST AND SOUTH ASIA FERIDUN SINIRLIOGLU TOLD AMBASSADOR THAT THE JUNE 3 FIRING OF JOWZJAN PROVINCIAL GOVERNOR JUMA KHAN HAMDARD HAD DEFUSED, AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING, THE CRISIS SITUATION THAT WAS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN. SINIRLIOGLU NOTED HAMDARD HAD BEEN FIRED FROM ANOTHER PROVINCIAL GOVERNORSHIP PREVIOUSLY AFTER SIMMERING TENSIONS WITH LOCAL RESIDENTS THERE HAD BOILED OVER. HAMDARD, A PUSHTUN FORMER ALLY OF GULBUDDIN HEKMATYAR AND HIZB ISLAMI MEMBER, HAD BEEN APPOINTED BY KARZAI WITHOUT OBJECTION BY DOSTUM. ¶3. (C) SINIRLIOGLU INDICATED THE TURKS KNOW DOSTUM WELL AND ARE UNDER NO ILLUSIONS REGARDING THE ROLE HE PLAYS. NONETHELESS, THE GOT PLACES GREAT EMPHASIS ON STABILITY IN AFGHANISTAN AND WAS GREATLY CONCERNED BY REPORTS FROM RASOUL THAT KARZAI INTENDED EITHER TO ARREST AND/OR EXILE DOSTUM IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE DEMONSTRATIONS IN SHIBERGHAN THAT TURNED VIOLENT LAST WEEK. THE TURKS FEARED KARZAI, BY ATTEMPTING TO ARREST DOSTUM, WOULD UNLEASH FORCES OF INSTABILITY THAT HE WOULD BE UNABLE TO CONTAIN. GOT OFFICIALS ALSO FEARED THE NEGATIVE PUBLIC REACTION IN TURKEY HAD AFGHANI GOVERNMENT FORCES, POTENTIALLY BACKED BY THE U.S., ENTERED INTO ARMED CONFLICT WITH DOSTUM'S TURKIC FORCES, FURTHER UNDERMINING WHAT LITTLE PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. REMAINS HERE. ¶4. (C) THE GOT APPROACHED DOSTUM, ASKED HIM TO STOP THE DEMONSTRATIONS, AND REITERATED PREVIOUS ENCOURAGEMENT FOR HIM TO CONTINUE A POLITICAL PROCESS THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR A PEACEFUL SUCCESSION OF POWER WITHIN JUNBESH-E-MILLI. SINIRLIOGLU INDICATED TURKEY IS WILLING TO HOST DOSTUM FOR AN INDETERMINATE PERIOD FOLLOWING THIS TRANSITION, NOTING DOSTUM OWNS AN APARTMENT IN ANKARA AND HIS DAUGHTER IS STUDYING AT UNIVERSITY HERE. DOSTUM REPORTEDLY HAD AGREED TO THIS PROCESS THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIS OUSTER, BUT DID NOT WANT TO MAKE IT PUBLIC. RECOGNIZING THAT DOSTUM IS DIFFICULT TO MANAGE, SINIRLIOGLU SAID THE GOT HAD ITS EYES WIDE OPEN IN DEALING WITH DOSTUM, IMPLYING THAT IT WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN PRESSURE ON HIM TO CARRY THROUGH WITH THIS PLAN. ¶5. (C) AMBASSADOR ASKED ABOUT THE TIMING OF SUCH A TRANSITION, TO WHICH MFA DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL FOR SOUTH ASIA BABUR HIZLAN RESPONDED THAT THE PROCESS HAS ALREADY BEGUN. LOCAL PARTY CAUCUSES HAD ALREADY OCCURRED AND A NATIONAL PARTY CONGRESS WAS DUE TO TAKE PLACE SOON, HOPEFULLY THIS MONTH, IN KABUL. THE CONGRESS WOULD MAKE THE DECISION ON A CHANGE IN PARTY LEADERSHIP. SINIRLIOGLU ASKED FOR SUPPORT TO ALLOW THIS POLITICAL PROCESS TO PLAY OUT, ALLOWING DOSTUM TO DEPART THE SCENE ON WHAT APPEARED TO BE HIS OWN TERMS. HE ADDED THAT PUSHTUN PRESSURE ON DOSTUM WOULD ONLY SERVE TO STRENGTHEN SUPPORT AMONG HIS BACKERS IN THE NORTH GIVEN HIS "HERO STATUS" THERE AND HIS STRONG RECORD OF FIGHTING THE TALIBAN, MAKING HIS DEPARTURE MORE UNLIKELY. SINIRLIOGLU ALSO NOTED THAT SHOULD THE FIGHT AGAINST THE TALIBAN IN THE SOUTH GO WRONG, WE ALL (ISAF) MAY NEED HIS HELP AGAIN IN THE FUTURE. TRILATERAL WORKING GROUP PROCESS MOVES AHEAD -------------- ¶6. (C) SINIRLIOGLU INFORMED AMBASSADOR THE GOT HAD GAINED AGREEMENT FROM BOTH KABUL AND ISLAMABAD TO HOLD THE FIRST MEETING OF A JOINT WORKING GROUP, TO BE HELD AT THE MFA UNDER SECRETARY LEVEL, JULY 6 IN ANKARA. THE CONCEPT HAD BEEN SIPDIS AGREED TO BY PRESIDENTS KARZAI AND MUSHARRAF DURING THEIR SUMMIT MEETING IN LATE APRIL IN ANKARA AND THE GOT HAD PRESSED TO MAINTAIN THE MOMENTUM BEHIND ITS INITIATIVE TO FOSTER DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES. VISIT ANKARAS CLASSIFIED WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.STATE.SGOV.GOV/P/EUR/ANKARA/ WILSON