TURKEY: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT PACKAGE GOES BACK

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001346 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT PACKAGE GOES BACK TO SEZER, UNDER A CLOUD REF: ANKARA 1114 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, for Reasons 1.4 (b ,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT. On May 31st, Parliament re-passed the constitutional amendment package that would, i.a., provide for direct popular election of the president, over President Sezer's initial veto. The package now bounces back to Sezer. After 15 days, Sezer can either approve it or send it to referendum, in whole or in part. Unless parliament shortens the existing 120-day waiting period, a referendum could be possible by mid-October. Meanwhile, the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) has indicated it intends to challenge the amendment package in the Constitutional Court, an option President Sezer himself may exploit. Even some in the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) are uneasy with the railroading approach their party has taken on a topic most feel would have been better achieved with a new parliament after public debate and a less hasty course of action. Two things are for sure: no one really knows what will happen, and AKP's insistence (abetted by the Motherland Party ANAVATAN) is helping keep the political temperature high. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. ¶2. (U) Following President Sezer's initial veto of the constitutional amendment package, which would change the presidential election to a popular (rather than parliamentary) vote, convert the presidency to a renewable 5-year term (rather than a single 7-year term),and make general elections every four (rather than five) years, passed as a whole with 370 votes. The first and least controversial article, reducing the parliamentary term to four years, only received 366 votes in the initial break-out vote. ¶3. (C) President Sezer has three options now. The amendment passed with more than a two-thirds majority, compelling him after 15 days to either promulgate the amendment or send it to referendum, according to Article 174 of the Constitution. Article 148 also stipulates that the president or one-fifth of parliament may refer the amendment to the Constitutional Court for verification of form -- in other words, whether parliament followed proper procedures. ¶4. (U) Deputy Chairman of the CHP, Ali Topuz, has already said that CHP may apply to the Court as early as today. Former Chief Prosecutor Sabih Kanadoglu, who has been publicly railing against the package using a variety of procedural and substantive objections, claims the Court will annul the amendments. ¶5. (C) The truth is, no one really knows what will happen. Even AKP contacts worry that continuing to push the package only further ratchets up tensions. They are concerned, too, that time tables could be pushed out of sync. Two high-level party members worried that if the president holds onto the amendment package for 15 days before sending it to referendum, the mid-October referendum date will be awkward for the new parliament, whose first task should be electing the president but who may be forced to wait for the referendum in train. This risks potentially tying up the process for months. (An AKP MP today introduced a draft to change the law on referendums and shorten the waiting period). A strong secularist with whom we spoke believes the Court will annul the package on procedural grounds: namely, that as parliament had been unable to elect a president, it had set an election date and thus had no further business pursuing new legislation. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON