TURKEY: ALEVI GROUPS WEIGHING ELECTION OPTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001288 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: ALEVI GROUPS WEIGHING ELECTION OPTIONS Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4(b)(d) 1.(C) Summary: Several leftist Alevi organizations failed to agree on an election strategy at a May 19-20 Istanbul conference. Some attendees supported the recently concluded center-left alliance, while others insisted it was not nearly broad enough to represent their interests. The conference reflected the eclectic nature of Alevis and their increasing frustration that no party advances their causes. Our contacts believe that despite this disillusionment, most Alevis will stick to tradition and vote for a mainstream center-left party such as the Republican People's Party (CHP). Overtures from other parties to run Alevi candidates and incorporate some of the issues Alevis support into a party platform are unlikely to do much to change the equation. End summary. -------------- -------------- Alevis Groups Attempt to Combine Forces, Strengthen Influence -------------- -------------- 2.(C) Several leading Alevi organizations, including the Pir Sultan Association, Haci Bektasi Association, and El-i-Beyt Foundation, met May 19-20 in Istanbul to formulate a strategy for the July 22 parliamentary elections. Kazim Genc, President of the Pir Sultan Alevi Association, told us he organized the conference to strengthen the political influence of Turkey's large Alevi population. Until now, according to Genc, Alevi influence has been disproportionately weak -- Alevis make up approximately 20-25 percent of Turkey's population. Genc described Alevis as independent-minded and unwilling to tie themselves to a specific political party. 3.(C) Genc hoped that he could increase the influence of Pir Sultan's 25,000 members by joining with other Alevi groups. Alevis are disappointed with the current parties, none of which sufficiently address Alevi concerns, according to Genc. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is, he claimed, interested in establishing sharia law and is corrupt. CHP is now alarmingly close to the military and has failed to reward Alevis for their support during the 2002 election. By combining forces, Alevis could magnify their influence on parties' platforms, he explained. -------------- Fractured Groups Unable to Unite -------------- 4.(C) Despite high hopes, Alevis were unable to forge consensus, and left the conference almost as divided as they came. Attendees told us that prominent Alevi Veliyettin Ulusoy led a "moderate leftist" camp that declared it would support the CHP-DSP alliance. The "hardcore leftists," such as Genc, rejected the CHP-Democratic Left Party (DSP) alliance unless it significantly broadened its tent. Most individuals criticized Alevis who planned to run with AKP or the new Democrat Party (DP) -- the result of the Motherland Party (ANAVATAN) and True Path Party (DYP) merger. 5.(C) Many participants signed a broad statement released at the conference's conclusion, with three main points: -- No political party had recognized in its platform the plight of Alevis. -- Political Islam, supported by the U.S.'s "moderate Islam project," had been trying to take full control of the government, as evidenced by AKP's attempts to control the Presidency, Speakership, and Prime Ministry. This political Islam promotes racism, backwardness, and sharia. -- The best solution is a broad alliance of leftist parties, unions, and other groups. The alliance of CHP and DSP is not sufficient because it excludes many leftist groups. -------------- Alevi Groups Continue to Weigh Options -------------- 6.(C) Following the conference, most of our Alevi contacts remained unwilling to commit to a party and open to ANKARA 00001288 002 OF 002 overtures. While Genc continued to espouse a broad coalition of leftists parties, one of his Vice Presidents said he would consider supporting AKP or DP if they agreed to address Alevi concerns. 7.(C) Alevi expert Dr. Aykan Erdemir of Middle East Technical University (METU) was not surprised by the lack of unity. "It is impossible to characterize Alevis as supporting one political line -- the community is quite heterogeneous," he told us. Some at the conference largely discouraged the use of military intervention to solve Turkey's Kurdish problems in the southeast, but others pushed for such intervention. Some Alevis practice their religion devoutly, while many are purely secular. Erdemir predicted most Alevis would unite around a common fear that AKP is trying to increase the influence of Sunni Islam in society by consolidating control of government institutions such as the Religious Affairs Directorate (Diyanet). The unifying concern would lead them ultimately to vote for a mainstream leftist political party such as DP. 8.(C) Comment: As the conference showed, the Alevis' heterogeneity makes it difficult for them to form a cohesive bloc in support of one candidate or party. Several parties, including AKP, are courting Alevi voters and seeking Alevis to run as candidates. Center-right parties, however, are unlikely to meet their specific, long-standing demands, and AKP is clearly anathema to many Alevis. In the end, most Alevis will probably stick to tradition and vote for a mainstream center-left party such as CHP. End comment. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON