ECONOMY MINISTER BABACAN: NEED FOR DEMOCRACY,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001195 SIPDIS SIPDIS TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS - JROSE E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2012 TAGS: EFIN PGOV TU SUBJECT: ECONOMY MINISTER BABACAN: NEED FOR DEMOCRACY, FREEDOM, AND STABILITY REF: ANKARA 1173 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Minister of Economy and EU negotiator Ali Babacan told Ambassador May 16 that the AKP government takes a strong economic record into the upcoming elections, but worried that the credibility the AKP Government had worked so hard to build for Turkey could be quickly destroyed. He thought recent events would strengthen both CHP and AKP, but not MHP. He attributed investors' mild reactions to deepened Turkish democracy, the likelihood the next government will have to continue orthodox policies, improved economic fundamentals and abundant global liquidity. He said he followed U.S. statements closely and thanked the U.S. for its support for Turkish democracy and Turkey's EU accession. He was hoping Sarkozy would not derail existing EU commitments to Turkey. A test will come June 26 when the EU Council may open two or three chapters with Turkey. End Summary. -------------- -------------- Importance of Democracy and Institutional Credibility: -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Babacan said he was one of the small group of AK Party officials who helped draft the Government's April 28 reply to the military's April 27 statement. He said one recent event (the military statement) had raised questions about the functioning of Turkish democracy; another (the Constitutional Court decision requiring a two-thirds quorum be present to start the presidential election process) raised questions about rule of law. A clearly frustrated Babacan said the Government had worked hard over the past 4--plus years on reforms, emphasizing rule of law and freedoms. It takes years to build up credibility, he stressed, but it can be destroyed very quickly. ¶3. (C) The Government had decided that the best course was to move quickly to resolve the situation via elections. EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn told Babacan that the EU believes the GOT has taken the correct approach. If the Government's proposed constitutional reforms for direct election of the president are not allowed to go to a referendum, Babacan worries about what will happen in the next parliament. He said the Constitutional Court decision would mean that election of the President of the National Assembly would also require a two-thirds vote, opening the way for smaller opposition parties "to threaten us." ¶4. (C) Ambassador emphasized U.S. support for Turkish democracy, constitutional processes and the secular republic but explained that we could not become enmeshed in partisan domestic politics. He suggested that it was a time for Turkish political actors to be pragmatic and to find a way to avoid damaging confrontation. Babacan said he was following U.S. statements very closely. He thanked the U.S. for its support for Turkish "democracy and secularism" and for its support for Turkey's EU accession. -------------- Babacan's Political Analysis: -------------- ¶5. (C) Babacan was accepting of the recent large-scale, multi-city demonstrations by supporters of Turkish secularism, but he suggested they would have been more influential had they taken place in the absence of the military's statement. He emphasized how much freer and open Turkey had become in recent years, with hundreds of TV channels and people speaking about sensitive subjects unlike in the 1980's or 1990's. ¶6. (C) Saying it was too early to put much faith in polls, he suggested that recent events had helped the People's Republican Party (CHP) to the detriment of the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) because the CHP has shifted over to occupy the nationalists' niche. Babacan wondered how long CHP could go on pretending to be a social democratic party without getting kicked out of the Socialist International. He also saw recent events as strengthening the AKP, because the large undecided vote was shrinking as people formed opinions. In terms of the business and financial community, he was of the opinion their first preference would be a single-party AKP Government, and their last preference a coalition without AKP. ¶7. (C) Babacan doubted economic issues would figure prominently in the electoral campaign: opposition parties had yet to articulate clear platforms and the issue was unlikely to work in their favor. He expected the AKP to focus more on stability, freedom and democracy. -------------- Why Investors Have Not Reacted: -------------- ¶8. (C) Babacan attributed investors' mild reaction to political developments to three main factors. First, he believes investors see the deepening in Turkish democracy and believe Turkey will work its way through to a solution -- a point the Ambassador said he had been making to American business people. Babacan said investors recognize that the next government is likely to continue orthodox policies. The Government's Ninth Development Plan provides a road map that the next government will deviate from at their peril. The fact that Turkey has become more open, in Babacan's view, limits the next Government's options. Fiscal discipline, an independent central bank, a floating exchange rate regime and open capital markets will have to remain core policies. He said Turkey had presented its three-year program to rave reviews from the European Central Bank and European Finance Ministers. Babacan said some CHP deputies have called for 25% increases in civil servant salaries and tax cuts without mention of fiscal targets. Perhaps they would be more pragmatic in office, but if the next government tried to do this market reaction would be swift. ¶9. (C) Another reason investors have taken things in stride is Turkey's improved fundamentals. Net public sector debt to GDP was 45% versus 90% post-crisis; the structure of public debt had improved with less foreign exchange and interest rate risk; banks are far better capitalized with well-managed interest rate and foreign exchange risk; inflation has come down; and reserves are strong at the Central Bank, Treasury and private banks. Babacan recognized that Turkey had benefited from abundant global liquidity. ¶10. (C) Babacan did note the risk that if political problems persist or worsen, investor appetite may diminish, especially that of direct investors who take a long-term view and prize rule of law and predictability. Even the mix of portfolio investors has evolved over the past two years to include a larger proportion of investors, such as pension funds, with a long-term perspective. He said FDI has held up well so far in 2007 because of continued flows from transactions announced last year and that the time-lag involved in FDI decisions means any impact from political problems will not be noticeable for several months. -------------- AKP Takes a Chance on Free Markets and Reform -------------- ¶11. (C) The Ambassador asked about the risk of a political cost from certain aspects of the economic situation, such as unemployment and uneven prospects for small businesses. Babacan realized that small retailers needed to adapt to compete with expanding supermarket chains. The Government had nevertheless opted to persevere with its free-market philosophy and had shelved legislation to constrain the growth of large supermarkets. ¶12. (C) Babacan noted that there had been strong growth in non-farm employment: 2.5 million jobs created in the past two years. There was also a mismatch between the qualifications of the workforce and employers' needs. Turkey's vocational schools needed to be reformed as did universities, but that these reforms were controversial. The World Bank was helping the Government devise a package of labor market and educational reforms although the IMF wanted to be careful about the fiscal impact. Once elections were over, Babacan expected the next government to move forward on this package and that microeconomic reforms will become increasingly important. -------------- EU, Sarkozy -------------- ¶13. (C) Regarding the election of Sarkozy, Babacan said Turkey worried about Sarkozy's being on the record with statements opposing Turkey's EU candidacy. Babacan expects Barroso, other European leaders, and the U.S. to urge Sarkozy not to derail the existing EU process and prior EU commitments. Given that French voters will ultimately have the opportunity to decide, and that Turkey is not asking to become a member tomorrow, Babacan hoped Sarkozy would be reasonable. ¶14. (C) A key test will come in June 26 at a European Council meeting at which the EU may open as many as three chapters. Babacan said the Commission believes three can be opened but that Germany believes only two are ready. -------------- - International Implications of Turkish Politics: -------------- - ¶15. (C) Babacan repeated his assertion that Turkey's relations with the EU and Turkish politics are being closely watched throughout the Muslim world, and that reformers in other Muslim countries will be discouraged if there are setbacks to Turkish democracy or EU accession. He said the Solana-Larijani talks and the Karzai-Musharraf talks took place in Turkey in the midst of the political problems because other countries' leaders look to Turkey as a country they can trust. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON