TURKISH GENERAL STAFF BELIEVES PKK CEASEFIRE WILL

S E C R E T ANKARA 001190 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2022 TAGS: PGOV PTER MOPS PREL IZ TU SUBJECT: TURKISH GENERAL STAFF BELIEVES PKK CEASEFIRE WILL END MAY 18 REF: A. ANKARA 1179 ¶B. IIR 6 898 0266 07 Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (S) Turkish General Staff J-2 (Intelligence) LTGEN Guner told us May 17 that the Turkish military believes the PKK will end its self-declared ceasefire on May 18 and it has ordered its terrorist cadres to commence attacks on Turkish soil. Guner claimed the TGS has information that the PKK has ordered its units to blame large attacks with civilian casualties on the Kurdish Freedom Falcons (TAK),a PKK splinter group, in order to deflect responsibility from the PKK. ¶2. (S) Guner added that a mass casualty attack or a series of smaller attacks with significant casualties will increase public pressure on the government and military to conduct a cross border operation (CBO) to interdict PKK fighters and destroy their bases in northern Iraq. He added that, if the Turkish parliament is not in session when the need for a CBO becomes urgent, the Prime Minister could authorize the operation and seek parliamentary approval at a later date. ¶3. (S) Comment. The TGS may have gotten some information from jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan's May 16 meeting with his lawyers, through whom Ocalan is reported to pass messages to the PKK in the field. End Comment. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON