TURKEY: PARTIES ON THE "LEFT" AT LOOSE ENDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001173 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: PARTIES ON THE "LEFT" AT LOOSE ENDS REF: ANKARA 1072 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, for Reasons 1.4 (b ,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. A cloud of pessimism hangs over the proposed electoral alliance between the center-left Republican People's Party (CHP) and Democratic Left Party (DSP). Tiny, impotent DSP has already squandered much of its waning political capital, while CHP leader Baykal, playing to a public crying out for a united center-left, may convince voters that CHP has drawn in the leftists even without DSP cooperation. At the same time, populist Genc (Youth) Party is actively courting DSP. Meanwhile, individual politicians are both fleeing from and embracing the so-called left in the scramble to find the best foothold for ideology and personal gain. END SUMMARY. DSP fears fox in charge of the henhouse -------------- ¶2. (C) Despite intensified public pressure to unite CHP and DSP, bland DSP leader Zeki Sezer has played his cards poorly, failing first to defend the party's honor when Baykal derided the one percent that DSP won in 2002 and then to ride the wave of public enthusiasm for a merger. Several CHP MPs have told us DSP simply overreached in its demand for 0-50 top slots (CHP reportedly offered 10-20),but observers closer to DSP claim the party is paralyzed by its leadership's fear of being marginalized within DSP itself. While top members pursue parliamentary seats under the CHP roof, residual DSP leadership might reorganize them out of a job. Sezer, who took fire from his party assembly last week for negotiating without party authorization, promptly announced he would not stand as a candidate from CHP. Other would-be candidates Ahmet Tan and Emrehan Halici reportedly share his fears. ¶3. (C) In the face of public demand, pressure is still on: Rahsan Ecevit, the formidable widow of the late Bulent Ecevit (DSP was essentially the Ecevits' party) yesterday urged the party to make the alliance work and asserted that in parliament, they should operate as two separate groups (implying that DSP required no less than 20 seats -- enough to form a parliamentary group). As social democratic intellectual and former parliamentary vice speaker Uluc Gurkhan described DSP's position, "If this alliance doesn't happen, DSP will be committing suicide. If this alliance happens, DSP will be beginning a hunger strike. Neither is good for its health." CHP stakes out unusual territory: the high ground -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) In contrast, the usually autocratic CHP leader Baykal is making lemonade from this wobbly negotiation. Starting from a position of strength -- there is little doubt that CHP can cross the 10 percent electoral threshold by itself -- Baykal has played the magnanimous advocate of unity, softening the terms by setting aside his earlier demand that DSP close down upon the merger. Contacts suggest that Baykal is working to draw in a few big names of the old left, such as former DSP ministers Sukru Sina Gurel and Zekeriya Temizel -- names more meaningful to the public than DSP itself. If he succeeds, Baykal may create the illusion of having met the public's demand and united the left, even if DSP remains outside. Anything goes -------------- ¶5. (C) Right-wing populist Genc Party, which offered to join with CHP (reftel) but this week bragged that it would run alone, is using its ties to DSP to offer an alternative more balanced in terms of power. Former DSP MP Gonul Saray, now a vice chair of Genc, is quietly working toward an alliance and reportedly offered Uluc Gurkhan a good spot on a joint list. Gurkhan perceives that Genc is "seriously working on DSP." ¶6. (C) The picture is further complicated by the flight in all directions of politicians looking for their next home. ANKARA 00001173 002 OF 002 Staunch social democrat and environmentalist Ertugrul Gunay believes parties on the so-called political left have now moved to the right of ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). No party represents social democracy, he claims; for his future, he looks for the party best placed to work toward the values he espouses, like social justice and reducing income disparity. He implies he will cast his lot with AKP. On the nominal opposite end of the spectrum, former Nationalist Action Party (MHP) member and founder of the Hur Party, Yasar Okuyan, urges all to support the CHP against AKP. Center-right politician Mehmet Ali Bayar flirted heavily with CHP before finally agreeing to stay with the newly formed Democrat Party. DSP's Istemihal Talay will run with the right-wing MHP. ¶7. (C) Comment: Political realignment may be the norm before elections, but this degree of upheaval emphasizes the twin factors of dramatic polarization along the perceived secular/anti-secular divide, and the continuing absence of genuine leadership on the so-called left. Even if Baykal succeeds in his shell game with DSP, that will guarantee neither a stronger CHP vote, nor the practical, forward-looking vision the Turkish left needs now. End comment. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON