CENTER-RIGHT MERGER STILL A WILD CARD IN TURKISH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001138 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2017 TAGS: PGOV TU SUBJECT: CENTER-RIGHT MERGER STILL A WILD CARD IN TURKISH ELECTIONS REF: ANKARA 1108 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b), (d) ¶1. (C) Summary and comment. The recent center-right merger throws a wild card into the line-up for Turkey's July 22 parliamentary elections. True Path Party (DYP) and Motherland Party (Anavatan) leaders announced the alliance on May 6, after prolonged negotiations. Supporters will approve the two parties' merger at their June conventions to form the new Democrat Party (DP). Both DYP and Anavatan are established parties, whose fall from grace over corruption and failed economic policies contributed to the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) success in 2002. Contacts tell us the Ankara and Istanbul rallies spurred the parties to regroup as DP to give voters a center-right alternative. Whether the make-over is persuasive enough to hoist DP over the 10 percent election threshold will depend on how they sell DP's tarnished leaders, how they fill in DP's "clean slate" -- and how solid the merger proves to be. End summary and comment. ¶2. (C) Bulent Kusoglu, DYP Ankara Provincial Chairman, described DP as a modern center-right alternative that supports EU membership and Turkey's traditional pro-Western alliances. As secular, conservative Muslims, "DP can be the balance in parliament," Kusoglu said. DP's presence will reassure the military, judiciary and other establishment institutions who are nervous about AKP's religious foundations. Kusoglu optimistically predicted the new party's support will reach 25 percent or more by the election, winning back the 15 percent Kusoglu claims AKP stole from DYP in 2002. DP plans to reach out to youth with a new vision to get them more politically involved and offer a positive alternative to the Nationalist Movement Party's (MHP) ultranationalism. Kusoglu expects at least three parties to cross the 10 percent threshold in July, bringing stability without one view dominating. ¶3. (C) While he supports direct presidential elections, Kusoglu sees AKP's efforts to push such a change through as purely a vote-getting strategy. "This is a fundamental change that will affect the power balances; it should not be done hastily," he said. AKP's recent actions show that they doesn't understand Turkey's particular balances; by bringing religion into the public sphere, AKP created suspicions and instability that are hard to correct. AKP didn't take the time to create a new, modern understanding of Islam's role, Kusoglu said. DP will respect Turkey's secular-religious balances while taking the country forward. ¶4. (C) Kusoglu blames recent events largely on Turkey's weak civil society; the military does not want to have to intervene but will if it must. "We don't yet have the intellectual and civil society needed to protect democracy," he said. "Once we have that, we won't need the military to step in. Now society must take action so the military won't have to intervene again." DYP and Anavatan members heard the public's call for unity at the massive rallies; that, not the military's April 27 warning, is what led to the parties' merger after weeks (some say years) of discussion and behind-the-scenes pushes from former president Demirel. The people are looking for a political solution not a coup, and DP is that solution. Kusoglu claims the rallies stoked civil society's confidence by showing the people can make a difference. The military could have reacted more forcefully against AKP but is coaxing civil society to redress the imbalance through the political process. ¶5. (C) Mahmut Bilgic, DYP's Election Affairs Chair, echoed Kusoglu's confidence in DP's performance. If party leaders can lure Genc Party into the fold, DP will move into first place, the populist Bilgic said. He agreed that DP will regain votes from AKP and attract some from MHP by representing the secular, conservative values of Turks. "Our policy is not to pull mosques or the military into politics," he explained. "We want to correct the economic and social imbalances that have developed." Bilgic stressed that DP promotes tolerance and democracy, adding that party members would not accept even indirect military intervention. "We love our military but we don't accept the military's interference." Responsible politicians would never create ANKARA 00001138 002 OF 002 the conditions that would force the military to intervene, he said, blaming current tensions on what he termed AKP leaders' arrogant, uncompromising approach. ¶6. (C) Others are not as optimistic about DP's future. DYP leader Mehmet Agar's violent past and law-enforcement background put many off, and Anavatan's Erkan Mumcu strikes some as lacking the confidence needed to establish a credible new image for DP. Most contacts felt the two leaders' clumsy handling of the presidential voting process made them look undemocratic, subject to manipulation and weak. Metropoll's Ozer Sencar said the merger's potential isn't yet clear, although the new party -- particularly if Genc Party joins -- is likely to drive MHP's support below the threshold. AKP MP Hakki Koylu, along with others, view the move as nothing more than an alliance of convenience. If the merger generates genuine synergy, Sencar predicted DP may cross the threshold. Poll results in late May will indicate what impact the DYP-Anavatan merger will have on the election line-up. Between now and July 22, DYP and Anavatan, in the new DP guise, will need to work hard to persuade Turks to give them another chance to lead. 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