TURKISH PARLIAMENT STALLED ON PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001056 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2017 TAGS: PGOV TU SUBJECT: TURKISH PARLIAMENT STALLED ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS REF: ANKARA 1054 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b), (d) ¶1. (C) Summary and comment. On May 6, Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) was unable to muster the 367 quorum required for parliament to repeat the first round of voting on FM Gul's controversial presidential candidacy. While Gul announced before the session began that he would withdraw his name if a quorum failed to show, he has yet to do so officially. Absent a quorum, Speaker Bulent Arinc announced that parliament would try again on May 9. Parliament did not address two constitutional amendment packages (reftel) also set for debate today. Parliament is set to take up the two packages and other business on May 7. Early May 5, two center-right parties agreed to form an election alliance and unite as soon as practicable. Spurred on by peaceful pro-secular rallies in Manisa, Canakkale and Marmaris, center-left parties announced on May 6 an alliance in principle. Opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) is now pushing to move the general election up from July 22 to June 24. Given continuing confusion over quorum requirements and parliament's authority to act while the presidential election process is underway, Speaker Arinc and AKP are playing it safe by formally scheduling another vote on Gul's candidacy. AKP leaders are meeting this afternoon to determine their next moves. End summary and comment. No Quorum in Round One Re-Do -------------- ¶2. (SBU) At the May 6 re-do of round one of the presidential election, Parliament Speaker Arinc made two formal attempts to obtain the 367 quorum for first- and second-round presidential elections required in the wake of the Constitutional Court's May 1 ruling. With only 358 MPs present, Arinc closed the session without a vote on FM Gul's candidacy and set May 9 as the next date to attempt to muster the quorum needed. Gul has yet officially to withdraw his candidacy, as he announced he would before and after the session. To avoid procedural challenges by the opposition, Arinc and AKP leaders may feel obliged to play the presidential election process out a bit further before formally terminating it. Since Gul is the only remaining candidate, his withdrawal would signal the end. AKP's Central Decision-Making Board is meeting this afternoon to decide how to proceed. ¶3. (C) Their next move may also aim to preserve the July 22 parliamentary election date set unanimously on May 3. CHP now wants to move that up to June 24, ostensibly to avoid voting during July's intense heat, but actually to make it easier for their constituents, many of whom head to cooler coastal areas in summer and would have to return to their residences to vote. CHP filed another petition with the Constitutional Court late May 4 to complain about procedural issues in an attempt to invalidate ongoing parliamentary activity and insert its date. Constitutional Amendments Debate Delayed -------------- ¶4. (U) Parliament delayed debate until May 7 on two constitutional amendment packages originally on today's agenda, likely due to procedural issues. At tomorrow's session, MPs may hold the second and final vote on an amendment that would lower from 30 to 25 the minimum age for candidates in parliamentary elections, and force independents to run on the main ballot rather than on separate slips. MPs are also scheduled to hold the first vote on a more controversial package that would move Turkey to direct presidential elections, change parliamentary and presidential terms and clarify quorum requirements. Party Alliances Taking Shape -------------- ¶5. (U) Motivated by the political maneuvering and public calls for unity, opposition parties are finalizing alliances that may offer voters clear alternatives in the upcoming general election. True Path Party (DYP) leader Mehmet Agar and Motherland Party (ANAVATAN) head Erkan Mumcu announced May 5 they would form a new Democratic Party (DP). Party members must approve the merger at their upcoming conventions. If the Supreme Election Board (SEB) determines ANKARA 00001056 002 OF 002 that it is too late to add DP to the ballot, the two would likely run under the DYP banner, then unify post-election. On May 6, CHP and the Democratic Left Party (DSP) announced an election alliance of convenience that would bring DSP under CHP's umbrella without formally dissolving DSP as a party. DSP members will vote on the union this evening. More Peaceful Pro-Secular Rallies -------------- ¶6. (U) Pro-secular NGO's in Manisa, Canakkale and Marmaris staged peaceful rallies on May 5. Despite police closing roads from Ankara and Izmir into Manisa (Arinc's hometown), media estimate hundreds of thousands participated, shouting pro-secular and anti-AKP slogans. Thousands turned out in Marmaris and about 15,000 marched in Canakkale -- one of the bastions of Ataturk's revolution -- where a barrage of leftist banners urged CHP and DSP to unite. Later that evening, the two party leaders announced their alliance to have DSP candidates run on the CHP ticket in the general election. And a PM-CHOD Meeting -------------- ¶7. (U) Finally, the evening of May 4, Chief of the Turkish General Staff, reportedly at PM Erdogan's invitation, met with the PM for over two hours at Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul. Neither side has revealed anything about the content of the lengthy meeting. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON