TURKEY HEADED TO EARLY GENERAL ELECTIONS

UNCLAS ANKARA 001025 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON TU SUBJECT: TURKEY HEADED TO EARLY GENERAL ELECTIONS REF: ANKARA 1006 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (U) Turkey's Constitutional Court announced late Mary 1 that it has accepted the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) petition to annul the first round of presidential voting on the ground that the required quorum was not present. CHP had argued that 367 -- the two-thirds of the members of parliament necessary to actually elect a president in either of the first two rounds -- is also the number required for a quorum. The Court agreed with CHP. It will publish its decision as quickly as possible. ¶2. (U) Minutes later, Justice and Development Party (AKP) spokesman and Justice Minister Cemil Cicek announced at a press conference that the AKP government will abide by the Court's decision as, he added, would any Turkish government. Cicek also indicated that parliament would convene as scheduled tomorrow afternoon, May 2, for what would have been the second round of voting. Tomorrow's round will now instead serve as a second attempt to gather a quorum of 367 for a new first round. If, as seems virtually certain, 367 MPs do not show, this parliament will be unable to elect a president. As a result, its only remaining duties will be to pass an election law and dissolve itself. ¶3. (U) The AKP central executive and decision making board will reportedly convene this evening; the AK party group will meet tomorrow morning. The opposition, whose desire for early elections the Court's decision fulfills, is expected to make statements soon. Cicek told the assembled press that not only was AKP prepared to go to early elections, but it was the party best prepared to do so. ¶4. (SBU) Comment: The Court's decision ensures early elections, taking Turkey down the road that seemed almost inevitable following the Turkish General Staff's April 27 statement. It also allows AKP to take the high road, make another attempt to gather a quorum of 367 and when that fails, proceed with immediate elections. This development will likely calm financial markets. The Court's decision accomplishes one more thing as well: it guarantees that it will be enormously difficult for any sitting parliament to elect a president, unless (1) one party manages to amass at least 367 MPs; or (2) a candidate is found who commands such consensus that this new quorum requirement can be met. End comment. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON