CODEL ROHRABACHER MEETS WITH JORDANIAN ROYAL COURT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004762 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2017 TAGS: JO PGOV KPAL SENV SUBJECT: CODEL ROHRABACHER MEETS WITH JORDANIAN ROYAL COURT CHIEF, NGO REPRESENTATIVES REF: 06 AMMAN 8959 Classified By: Ambassador David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. In November 29 meetings with Chief of the Royal Court Bassem Awadallah and NGOs who work with Iraqi refugees, Codel Rohrabacher heard about Jordan's struggle to cope with increased demands on its overburdened infrastructure. While describing Jordan's economic direction as positive overall, Awadallah noted that an inadequate water supply and the political constraints of the Palestinian issue are hampering forward movement. He indicated that the new government is a strong force for change in Jordan, and has the King's ear. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On November 29, Codel Rohrabacher, accompanied by the Ambassador, met with newly-appointed Chief of the Royal Court Bassem Awadallah (formerly director of the King's office). Awadallah began by outlining Jordan's "very rapid transition" of recent years, resulting in an economy growing at an average of seven percent annually, booming exports, and a decreasing debt-to-GDP ratio. Jordan is making a transition into middle income status, thanks to the "strategic thinking and visionary leadership" of the King, who is keen to follow through on Jordan's development needs in the areas of poverty, political development, and training for youth. Awadallah said that assistance from USAID and other American government resources is having lasting impact, especially in education and water management. The ultimate idea is to make Jordan a "hub of talent" that promotes skill-based education and upward economic mobility. ¶3. (C) The group discussed water issues in the context of the influx of Iraqi refugees. Awadallah said that water is a major constraint on Jordan's development. With a 2.4 percent annual population growth rate for Jordanians alone, the additional burden of Iraqi refugees adds additional strain to an already overburdened system. Congressman Rohrabacher indicated his support for the construction of the Red Sea-Dead Sea water conveyance project, which would bring electricity and water resources to Jordan while helping to dampen the environmental problems of a shrinking Dead Sea (Ref A). Awadallah said that while the World Bank's feasibility and environmental impact studies are currently under tender, both Israelis and Jordanians agree that the process is taking too long. Jordan is looking into ways of self-financing the project, which would in the end pay for itself. Grant money or loan guarantees would speed up the process regardless of the eventual path taken for the completion of the project. ¶4. (C) Turning to domestic matters, Awadallah praised the new government, saying that he expected it to have a stronger connection to the King than its predecessor. As part of efforts to build a modern, reformist cabinet, attempts were made to get two expatriate Jordanians now in Dubai to join, but those did not succeed - a failure Awadallah chalked up to the "brain drain" of human capital leaving Jordan for better opportunities in the Gulf countries and elsewhere. Still, he averred that the presence of seven women each in Jordan's new lower house and Senate means that the country's internal governance is going in the right direction. ¶5. (C) On the Palestinian issue, Awadallah said that he hoped for the creation of a Palestinian state in 2008. He praised the "good result" of the Annapolis conference, and saw it as the potential first step in countering the rise in extremism that has taken place over the past seven years. Saying "we moderates suffered greatly during this period", Awadallah warned that deepening Palestinian divisions were causing a rise in support for Iran in the region. He noted that extremists had made inroads in Jordanian mosques in recent years, and that the government could only effectively combat extremist Islam's message when solutions to such issues as the Israel-Palestine conflict emerged to steal the extremists' thunder. ¶6. (C) Awadallah asserted that the Palestinian cause is the number one issue on the mind of the King, and noted that it was the only issue he addressed in his address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress. A solution to the Palestinian issue is the key to hearts and minds throughout the Muslim world, and will release many constraints on political development in Jordan. Awadallah indicated that if it was not for the Palestinian issue, a proportional representation system would likely replace the current "one man, one vote" electoral law in Jordan. Comment: Jordan's electoral system over-represents East Bankers and under-represents Palestinian-Jordanians. East Bankers - the base of the regime - argue that this system is necessary until questions of Palestinian statehood and loyalty are resolved, and AMMAN 00004762 002 OF 002 Palestinians in Jordan choose definitively to be Jordanian or to be nationals of a Palestinian state. Until then, East Bankers argue, citizens who have "divided loyalties" cannot be fully integrated into Jordanian politics. End Comment. ¶7. (C) Rohrabacher asked about the realities of the right of return, and foresaw a system whereby Palestinians gained Palestinian nationality but could be given "green cards" in surrounding countries. Awadallah said that the right of return is more an issue of symbolism than one of practicality. Internal surveys conducted by Jordan's government indicate that fewer than ten percent of Palestinian refugees currently residing in Jordan would return to a Palestinian state. In addition, Awadallah said that there are political costs for Palestinians looking to reclaim their homeland, including army service and increased taxation. The success or failure of the right of return will ultimately be judged by the ability of Arab countries to "treat the Palestinians like human beings." Iraqi Refugees -------------- ¶8. (C) In an NGO roundtable on Iraqi refugees, Codel Rohrabacher heard from all participants that refugee populations were an additional strain on Jordan's already inadequate infrastructure. Refugee demands in the areas of water, education, and employment infrastructure disrupts Jordan's larger development path. For the refugees themselves, the situation is becoming more dire as families without access to formal employment begin to reach the end of their savings. For the vast majority of refugees, their goal is not to stay in Jordan, but merely to make their way in a foreign country before returning home. Jordan's government has welcomed them as "guests" or "expatriates" rather than refugees in order to avoid a repeat of the Palestinian refugee situation. It has generously extended services and support, but cannot be expected to continue at current levels without increased assistance. ¶9. (U) Codel Rohrabacher was unable to clear this cable before departing Jordan. Hale