FROM THE TRIBES TO THE STREET: THE ANATOMY OF A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 004430 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017 TAGS: JO PGOV KDEM SUBJECT: FROM THE TRIBES TO THE STREET: THE ANATOMY OF A JORDANIAN PARLIAMENTARY CAMPAIGN REF: AMMAN 4320 Classified By: Classified by Ambassador David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Jordan's campaign season is in full swing. Many candidates start their campaigns on the tribal level, where they compete for endorsements and the support of a unified tribe. Not all receive a unanimous verdict, but most can count on some form of tribal base. Campaign teams (both volunteer and paid) then organize activities through the candidate's professional connections and by reaching out to other tribes. Candidates court voters through personal meetings, door-to-door campaigning, and election tents, all the while trying to balance their schedules to reach the most people. As the methods of Jordanian campaigns become more sophisticated, raising barriers to entry are changing the nature of politics. End Summary. Stage One: The Tribal Caucus -------------- ¶2. (C) For most candidates in Jordan, a declaration of candidacy starts at the tribal level. Since tribal affiliation is central in the minds of many voters, it is key for most candidates to obtain the tacit or explicit endorsement of their tribes before running. Note: Tribal/family affiliation is equally important for both Palestinian-origin candidates and East Bankers - both demographics see their tribes and families as voting blocs. The situation of Palestinian-origin candidates will be reported in more detail septel. End Note. ¶3. (C) Increasingly, candidates are given tribal endorsement through a process that resembles a caucus. Well before the start of the campaign period, tribal leaders (or sometimes the candidates themselves) will call for a tribal meeting to determine who will run. Depending on the size of the tribe, the meeting could encompass all members of the tribe, a small group of elders or well-respected personalities, or even just heads of household. A candidate in the Madaba district, for example, whose tribe numbers upwards of 800,000 members, was selected by a group of 400 senior sheikhs and notables. Another candidate in Balqa was selected by a general meeting of all of the people from his tribe - about 3,000 members - who voted with actual ballots in a staged primary election. These tribal caucuses are almost always attended by men only, as it is assumed that women will vote with their male heads of household. ¶4. (C) Some candidates offer to fund these "caucuses," on the assumption that they will be selected. Since many tribes are scattered across several of Jordan's central districts, it can be logistically difficult to set up these meetings. (One candidate in Balqa issued an email invitation to a caucus, cleverly disguised as an Eid al Fitr message.) During the meetings, candidates talk about their stature within the tribe, as well as the tribe's stature in Jordan as a whole. One tribe filmed the debates, endorsements, and voting for later inclusion on a website - documentary proof of the candidate's tribal credentials that its scattered members could see for themselves. ¶5. (C) Such caucuses do not always result in the selection of a single candidate. Salem Ali Al Nusour, a candidate in the Balqa district, put himself forward at a caucus called by the leadership of his tribe. He and a competitor decided jointly on a method to decide who would win: each candidate would select a representative, and those representatives in turn would select a neutral third party. This committee of three would then decide which candidate was most suitable. After being selected by this three person committee, Al Nusour became, in his words, "the unanimous candidate of the tribe". However, after the tribal caucus the other candidate reneged on the deal and decided to declare his candidacy at any rate, potentially splitting the vote. Another candidate warned of the fickle nature of the tribal caucuses: "Just because you have a tribal endorsement, it doesn't mean that jealousy or apathy won't scuttle things." ¶6. (C) Sufficient opposition to a candidate running for re-election can also produce multiple candidates from a single tribe. An MP running for re-election in Madaba was accused of corruption, so members of his own tribe decided to scuttle his candidacy by announcing their intention to run against him. Unable to secure his own base of supporters, we hear that the candidate is now pursuing a two-pronged strategy of dirty tricks against his opponents and a broader campaign that depends less on tribal affiliation. ¶7. (C) In rare cases, tribes will refrain from nominating a candidate. One tribe in Madaba won the mayoralty in the AMMAN 00004430 002 OF 003 municipal elections, and decided not to put forward a candidate for parliament, hoping to win favor and accrue connections with other tribes who would in turn seek the first tribe's approval for their candidate. Contacts indicate that this situation is increasingly common, as a tribe with too many politicians in its pocket would be seen as greedy, while backing another tribe's candidate can build potentially useful alliances. Stage Two: Building A Base -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Once they have obtained the endorsement of their tribes, candidates go about putting together a base of supporters. This process starts with hiring a campaign team. Due to Jordan's high unemployment and political culture, campaigns are rarely staffed with volunteers. Family members and members of one's tribe can be counted on to pitch in, but they usually expect some form of payment or at least reimbursement for expenses. (One candidate we visited had a special part of his budget set aside for sweets and other "gifts" to his campaign staff.) ¶9. (SBU) The campaign team is in charge of building a list of supporters from the candidate's tribal roots and then expanding it. The tribal caucus is the base of this list - those who attend the ceremony give their contact information, and are counted as key supporters. As candidates hit the campaign trail, their staff is never far behind, gathering email addresses and phone numbers so they can contact supporters on election day. Some of the more sophisticated candidates also have the equivalent of district "captains" who are responsible for getting voters to the polls. ¶10. (C) Most first-time candidates rely on their professional and personal connections to build a base of supporters beyond those in their tribe. One candidate in Salt, a former engineering professor, pressed his former students into service as campaign workers and liaisons to their tribes. Another used his legal office to cut through red tape for job-seeking constituents - "wasta" or "connections" being a key job qualification in the eyes of many voters. Still another candidate essentially campaigned through his position as a family doctor - treating patients and meanwhile engaging them on a personal level about the issues. ¶11. (C) A more controversial tactic involves bolstering the voter rolls through the transfer of tribal members into certain districts (to be reported septel). Whether organized by tribes or individual candidates, this process involves changing a voter's national identification card to reflect the desired district, regardless of whether they live there or not. While the candidates and tribes that sponsor this practice can benefit from it, there are costs and risks involved. The members of many tribes are scattered throughout Jordan, and busing voters in from far away districts can become a considerable logistical headache and financial drain on a campaign. ¶12. (SBU) Tribal loyalties in Jordan mean that many candidates have a built-in base they can count on. This is positive in the sense that everyone standing for office is usually guaranteed a certain number of votes and some semblance of a campaign staff. The negative side is that, save for candidates from the largest tribes, the base of most candidates is similar, effectively canceling out the benefit of having a base in the first place. Beyond the few candidates whose tribes are large enough for them to win outright, most candidates in Jordan are forced to compete for the precious few swing voters who will cross tribal lines, especially in cases where tribal caucuses fail to produce a sole candidate. Stage Three: Hitting The Campaign Trail -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Most candidates in Jordan cannot win solely on the basis of their tribal affiliations. Vote splits within tribes, apathy among voters (reftel),and small tribal numbers usually necessitate some sort of public campaign. The most visible manifestation of this is the massive outpouring of posters and banners. Note: After the municipal elections in July, the Amman municipality decided to levy a hefty 2000 JD (USD 2800) fee for all candidates. The fee is to be used to defray the costs of disposing of campaign signs and banners after the election. End Note. The posters and banners are simple - most simply display the candidate's name, the district they are running in, and a picture. Slogans and other indications of ideological leanings are rare. Female candidates sometimes appear covered in their election propaganda - an attempt to lure AMMAN 00004430 003 OF 003 more conservative supporters. In Balqa, the IAF candidate appeared over pictures of Jerusalem's Dome of the Rock and Al Aqsa mosques. ¶14. (SBU) Pressing the flesh in Jordan is generally not done on a mass scale. While there are occasional mass rallies, candidates prefer not to speak in front of large crowds, where they fear hecklers and doubt that their messages are getting through. Instead, going door to door is seen as a far more effective way of reaching out to voters. All candidates we spoke to emphasized the importance of establishing a personal connection to voters, which is almost impossible to do in a large meeting. "I try to stop in to every house on the block - even for just five minutes," one candidate said. "I do it to show respect." Another candidate went around to local businesses: "When you get a business owner on your side, he brings his whole family with him." Once word of mouth begins to spread, candidates are often invited to small gatherings in people's homes to discuss the issues. Usually these are organized by voters themselves, but occasionally they are organized by a candidate's campaign team. ¶15. (SBU) Another traditional method of campaigning is the election tent. These range from simple shelters to lavish affairs, complete with carpets, beverage service, and comfortable chairs. Tents are set up in empty lots or on the outskirts of cities, and are designed as forums where candidates can make themselves available to voters. These meetings often turn into mini-debates, in which candidates and their constituents hold forth on the social issues of the day. Some candidates organize larger kick-off celebrations for the opening of their tents and invite members of their tribe or supporters from prepared lists. Mansaf, the national dish of lamb, rice, and ghee or yogurt, is often served. Since tent meetings often cater to more conservative tribal voters, one candidate donned traditional dress. "I wear the dishdash here in the tent, but when I go on vacation to Lebanon, I wear shorts," he explained. ¶16. (SBU) Campaigns in Jordan are top heavy, and candidates complain about the stress of being constantly available. One campaigned deep into the night in an effort to find younger voters at a time that was convenient for them. "I start in the early evening with the older people," he says. "By the time they go to bed, the youngsters are just starting their night." Another candidate emphasized the burden of running a top-heavy campaign on a personal level. "I can't delegate anything. All of my staff and the voters themselves want decisions to come directly from me," she remarked. Describing the campaign schedule as "hectic," a candidate in Madaba went door-to-door during the day and spent most of the night in his election tent on the outskirts of town. Stage Four: Get Out The Vote -------------- ¶17. (SBU) On election day, campaign teams have an organized system that alerts voters to the task at hand and often physically transports them to the polls. Based on the list of supporters gathered during the campaign, neighborhood captains will call, email, text message, or visit the people for whom they are responsible. Where candidates have arranged for constituency transfers, they are usually obligated to provide transportation for those voters via rented cars and busses to cast their ballots in the new district. Some candidates even provide gas money to voters to entice them into making the trip to the polls. Comment -------------- ¶18. (C) Despite their often traditional appearance, campaigns in Jordan are increasingly sophisticated machines. From the tribal caucuses to election day, campaigns require large budgets, long-term planning, a considerable staff, and the energy to see it all through. All of this amounts to higher barriers to entry in Jordanian politics, a situation that has positive and negative implications. As the burden of campaigning rises, fewer "everyday people" can be relied upon to run, potentially creating a disconnect between increasingly richer candidates and their constituents. Yet the flip side is also true: sophisticated campaigns are increasingly run by more sophisticated candidates, who have the organizational wherewithal and focus to visualize the start and finish of a successful effort. While the overall campaign system remains simplistic, based on tribal loyalties, and likely to produce a backwoodsman majority in the parliament, the seeds of issue-based, mass campaigns are being sown. Hale