JORDAN: WHY VOTE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 AMMAN 004320 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR NEA/ELA E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2017 TAGS: JO KDEM PGOV SUBJECT: JORDAN: WHY VOTE? REF: A. AMMAN 3284 ¶B. AMMAN 3240 ¶C. AMMAN 3311 ¶D. AMMAN 4294 ¶E. AMMAN 4111 Classified By: Classified by Ambassador David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Contacts across the political spectrum are showing apathy towards the November 20 parliamentary elections in Jordan. Reasons include: mistrust of the government following claims of improprieties during July's municipal elections, a perception that the parliament has no power to generate change given the role of the Government and Royal Court in ruling the country, frustration over the slow pace of reform, a general trend towards low voter turnout, and anticipation of a possible Islamist boycott following internal disputes over the party list. As the government and civil society encourage voters to show up to the polls, some voices in the media are implying that they might as well stay home. End Summary. Low Voter Turnout Typical -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Voter participation in Jordan is often low. The 58% turnout rate from the 2003 parliamentary elections represents a twenty year high. Parliamentary elections in 1997 (47% turnout),1993 (54% turnout),and 1989 (53% turnout) all had lower totals. Amman is typically the district with the lowest turnout, while rural areas often experience turnout in the eighty percent range. This is primarily due to bloc voting by tribes, in which local sheikhs and families sponsor extensive get-out-the-vote drives. While July's municipal elections were a different kind of poll, turnout numbers were just barely over the required fifty percent in several urban areas. ¶3. (SBU) An International Republican Institute (IRI) poll conducted in August indicated that 75% of those polled were planning to vote. IRI pollsters have told Emboffs, however, that they are suspicious of this result, and assume that this answer is largely a result of perceived social pressure to be positive about the elections. The Shadow of the Municipal Elections -------------- ¶4. (SBU) During the run-up to municipal elections in July (REF A),the perception was that the Jordanian public was eager to express its views on local affairs. This excitement was somewhat tempered in Amman (where only half of the municipal council was up for election). In order for municipal results to be valid, over fifty percent of voters had to show up to the polls, and to reach this level, several urban polling stations were kept open on election day or in some cases the day after. Note: There is no turnout requirement for the parliamentary elections. End Note. ¶5. (C) While turnout in the municipal elections was high enough to make the results valid, accusations of government interference in the polls tarnished the results in the minds of some Jordanians. On election day, the Muslim Brotherhood's political party in Jordan, the Islamic Action Front (IAF),alleged that the government was transporting soldiers to certain districts so they could vote en masse and tip the balance in favor of certain candidates (REF B). The IAF decided to boycott the elections in the middle of the day, causing confusion among voters and sowing doubt about the legitimacy of the outcome. The government, seeking to recover some of the public confidence it had garnered before the polls, attempted to discredit the IAF's claims. Prime Minister Marouf Bakhit described the IAF's pull-out as pre-planned, and part of an "unpatriotic, conspiratorial, opportunistic and anti-democratic mentality" (REF C). ¶6. (SBU) The IAF was not the only group with complaints about how the municipal elections were handled. The largely foreign-funded Amman Center for Human Rights Studies released a report on August 28 which stated that the government "failed to run the electoral process in the required transparency and fairness which it promised." The National Center for Human Rights, asked by the government to follow up on the accusations, released a report calling into question the procedural validity of the elections. The NCHR report noted that "the center has received several complaints and witnesses to violations that constitute contravention of international standards and legislation linked to free and fair elections." Note: The NCHR was also recently asked by the government to lead the effort to "follow up" on the AMMAN 00004320 002 OF 004 parliamentary elections as well (REF D). End Note. The government counters that no one, including the IAF, took their complaints to the special court set up to adjudicate such charges. "Nothing Will Change" -------------- ¶7. (C) During a recent visit to the Marka Palestinian refugee camp in northeastern Amman, Poloff briefly discussed the upcoming elections with teachers at a local school for girls run by UNRWA. In the 2003 elections, the district that includes the Marka camp was the subject of a hard-fought race between an elite East Banker and a former teacher from the camp. The East Banker was elected by a thin margin. In the upcoming November race, all of the teachers stated their intention to stay away from the polls. "Nothing will change," noted one head teacher. "It doesn't matter who we elect, they are all the same." The teachers predicted that the Islamic Action Front (IAF) would win the majority of votes in the camp. The teachers were unsure about the IAF's policy positions, but were certain that "where poverty is, religion will follow." ¶8. (C) A Palestinian-origin taxi driver expressed his disgust with the whole system. "All the candidates are the same," he said. "There aren't any options for real change. The government will just do what it wants anyway. Why should I vote if nothing will be any different?" At an iftar, a businessman from Irbid whose cousin is a member of parliament predicted that he would be elected despite the lack of any accomplishments: "He's a former doctor who met a lot of people through his practice. He goes to a lot of events and shakes a lot of hands. He'll probably win, even though he doesn't do anything at all in parliament and nobody knows what he stands for." The businessman doubted that he himself would vote, citing the lack of qualified candidates. ¶9. (C) A resident of Suweileh, a lower-income district of Amman, was concerned about haughty nature of parliamentarians, and their lack of respect for the people who elect them. He said about the candidates, "why should we pick people up so they can step on us?" Several contacts have also noted that the parliament has few statutory powers, and that individual parliamentarians almost never introduce legislation, but simply serve as a proxy for the government. An English language editorial in the Jordan Times from October 23 echoed this sentiment, saying that "most important is to ensure that participation (in the elections) can indeed chart the course of the country on major policy issues." Government And Civil Society Encouragement -------------- ¶10. (U) On October 1, Interior Minister Eid al Fayez stressed the duty of Jordanian citizens to vote in an interview with the semi-official Petra news agency. While assuring voters that the polls would be free, fair, and "conducted in a manner that ensures broad participation," Fayez also noted that the government would do all that it could to convince skeptical voters to exercise their franchise. ¶11. (SBU) Civil society organizations (often with USAID funding) are also encouraging people to vote. One NGO is holding three "Rock the Vote" concerts that will feature a special song written to stir up the sense of voting as a duty for younger people. Another group is running ads in newspapers about the importance of the elections - a complement to its website, t-shirts, and baseball caps that promote voting. Media Discouragement -------------- ¶12. (U) Popular apathy towards the election is both reflected in and perhaps helped along by the media. On October 4, managing editor of the opposition daily Al Arab Al Yawm Fahed Khitan wrote a response to a recent government request that the media encourage voters to go to the polls. Khitan declared, "we in the independent media are facing a problem of conscience in this regard. Whoever is monitoring the election scene, the quality of the competitors in most districts, and the low level of election campaigns and rhetoric, not to mention the rising spirit of narrow-minded tribalism, regionalism, and sectarianism, would hesitate a thousand times before advising a citizen to take part in the elections." ¶13. (U) On October 11, Khitan wrote another article in which he "understands the government's intentions in wishing to AMMAN 00004320 003 OF 004 raise voter turnout" as proof that "people are participating in the democratic process and in decision-making." Still, "focusing on this is an attempt to mislead in order to avoid...the commitment to the internal and external calls for reform." Khitan noted that while tribal voters can be counted on to keep the turnout rate at an acceptable level, that is mainly due to "social traditions" rather than confidence in the outcome. Khitan said that "the elections will be held in a political climate that is worse than in the past, and (held) amidst frustration and the absolute hegemony of the traditional forces that are supported by official institutions." ¶14. (U) On October 9, in the pro-government, pro-Palestinian daily ad-Dustour, senior columnist Oraib Rantawi expressed similar views in his column. Looking over the list of relatively moderate candidates put forth by the Islamic Action Front (IAF),Rantawi sees a party keen to "avoid a clash with the government and lean towards compromises and settlements" in spite of the tightening economic and political environment (REF E). The result is a situation where the outcome is pre-determined, and where policy will remain virtually unchanged. Rantawi wrote, "with the Islamic movement's announcement of its candidates for the next elections, we are now able to predict the results of these elections, which we believe will be void of any surprises and which will bring about a new parliament in form but old in content... The situation will remain the same until a new elections law that launches new dynamics into our political and social life is enacted." ¶15. (U) On October 22, Chief Editor Ayman al Safadi wrote in the independent daily al Ghad that "superficiality dominates the parliamentary campaigns. Hundreds of candidates entered the race and most of them will spend next month working day and night to win citizens' votes by depending on personal relationships. They will raise grandiloquent slogans, which most voters will not pay attention to when they cast their votes." Apathy Or Boycott? -------------- ¶16. (C) Another factor in turnout may be internal struggles within the Islamic Action Front (IAF). An internet poll run by the Muslim Brotherhood (subsequently published in mainstream daily Al Arab Al Yawm),indicated that 59% of those who took part in the poll would not vote in the elections as a protest against the mechanism in which the party's candidates were selected. If this sentiment is truly widespread among the IAF grassroots (as opposed to the relatively small number of official IAF party members),it could affect the voter turnout rate substantially. Still, there are several factors that would blunt that impact. The voters who avoid the polls based on internal IAF issues may be some of the same voters who were put off by their perceptions of the municipal elections, meaning that many of the boycotters would not have voted at any rate. The impact of a partial IAF boycott could also be offset by the emergence of several ex-IAF candidates who are now running as independents. The Candidates' View -------------- ¶17. (C) Even candidates worry about voter apathy. Mukhlid al Fa'aouri, a candidate in the Balqa governorate, says that even among members of his tribe (who he counts on to vote him into office),at least half will fail to show up to the polls. Al Fa'aouri posits that if all the eligible members of his tribe turned out to vote, he could easily win a seat outright. Yet because so many will fail to show up to the polls, he will have to campaign heavily amongst the general public and other tribes. His get-out-the-vote effort is impressive - his campaign staff will contact a pre-selected list of voters on election day, and he even offers people gas money so they can drive to the polling station. Still, he is worried that all of this work will amount to nothing. ¶18. (C) Salem Ali an Nusour, another Balqa candidate, says that of the 3,200 eligible voters from his tribe, he only expects 2,000 to actually vote. Describing his door-to-door campaigning, an Nusour says that many people (especially housewives) simply shut the door - they are uninterested in politics and cannot be counted upon to vote at any rate. He is hoping that his business contacts, who he says are more engaged, will turn out on election day. Comment -------------- AMMAN 00004320 004 OF 004 ¶19. (C) Comment: While it is still early on in the election season, there appears to be a trend towards low voter turnout. If turnout is low, there could be a debate as to whether the issues and candidates proved uninspiring or whether the IAF's supporters were responsible. If the latter, the next debate will be over whether the IAF undermined itself by self-exclusion, or weakened the government by calling into question the validity of the results. End Comment. Hale