JORDAN: PARTIAL SOLUTION EMERGING FOR ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 004294 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2017 TAGS: JO KDEM PGOV SUBJECT: JORDAN: PARTIAL SOLUTION EMERGING FOR ELECTION MONITORING REF: AMMAN 4277 Classified By: Classified by Ambassador David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On October 19, Prime Minister Marouf Bakhit issued a long-awaited statement on the ability of civil society organizations to monitor the upcoming November 20 election. While Bakhit effectively annulled earlier vague Interior Ministry prohibitions, by announcing that some form of "follow-up" would be allowed, he restricted this permission to the National Center for Human Rights, a NGO that is generally (but not always) favorable to the government. Civil society contacts by and large see the decision as better than nothing, but still far from where they would like to be. They are considering their reaction while preparing scaled-down monitoring efforts. Some candidates see the King's hand in the decision to allow some monitoring against the wishes of others in the GOJ. (Comment: In that sense this partial solution is significant. End Comment.) As elections approach, the practical application of the PM's statements needs to be worked out. End Summary. Monitoring Allowed - Within Limits -------------- ¶2. (U) On October 19, Prime Minister Marouf Bakhit appeared on television to discuss the issue of election monitoring by domestic NGOs in the upcoming November 20 parliamentary polls. While praising the POSITIVE role to be played by civil society organizations, Bakhit stressed that in order for monitoring to take place in an "orderly and serious" manner, limitations would be necessary. He indicated that the National Center for Human Rights (NCHR) would be the only accredited body allowed to monitor polls, and suggested that other civil society organizations act "through NCHR as an umbrella". ¶3. (U) Bakhit continued: "Approximately two weeks ago, agreement was reached with the Center to have it assume its role and choose around 100 to 150 representatives from the civil society organizations that wish to participate on condition that they receive training on the mechanisms and bases of the monitoring and follow-up operations...We in turn will follow up the issue with the Center step by step to organize the activities of these representatives and secure their visits to electoral centers and facilitate the measures and procedures to them." ¶4. (U) Responding to a question about the difference between "monitoring" the elections and "following up" on the elections, Bakhit declared that the government "does not need to obtain a certificate of good behavior from anybody," and set a red line around questioning the government's ability to effectively implement its own procedures. Referring to constitutional provisions allowing candidates or their representatives to monitor balloting, he said, "we do not accept supervision that is not from within the boundaries that are set by the law...Simply speaking, this means casting doubts on the elections process in advance, and this does not befit the Jordanian elections experience." IAF Reaction -------------- ¶5. (U) The Muslim Brotherhood's party, the Islamic Action Front (IAF),released a press statement shortly after Bakhit's interview denouncing the move to limit civil society participation. Calling the message "neither POSITIVE nor reassuring", IAF spokesman Ruhayl Ghurabiyah insisted that the government is "required to allow monitoring of the elections in order to prove the sincerity of its intentions in carrying out fair elections." Civil Society Reaction -------------- ¶6. (C) While many civil society organizations see progress in Bakhit's statements, the general reaction is mixed. On the positive side, the previous statements of the Interior Minister, which had categorically ruled out the possibility of civil society monitoring, were effectively annulled. The PM's statements also open the door for civil society organizations to train and equip NCHR in its monitoring effort - something that the National Democratic Institute (NDI) is preparing to do. Some see the fact that only the NCHR will be accredited as an indication of the desire of the government to control the process through a more established group, and are concerned about the lack of a blanket affirmation of civil society's right to monitor. AMMAN 00004294 002 OF 003 ¶7. (C) Hani Hourani, Chairman of the Jordanian NGO "Al Urdun Al Jadid" ("New Jordan"),and head of a coalition of civic groups that is organizing a monitoring effort, indicated that he was willing to work with the NCHR but would still press the issue of wider participation. He is concerned that the NCHR's efforts may amount to nothing more than a "touristic visit" to polling stations on election day rather than an organized campaign. He also expressed concern with the numbers of monitors mentioned by Bakhit in his remarks, saying that "100 to 150" would not be adequate enough to cover the entire country. Note: There will be 4000 polling stations in the election. USAID-funded training on election monitoring was given to over 2000 likely candidates. Between the representatives of these candidates (who are allowed within the polling sites),the official election monitors, and "sidewalk monitors" (non-approved monitors who will seek to observe the elections from outside polling stations), there will likely be significant coverage in any event. End Note. ¶8. (C) NGO contacts expect that NCHR will release a statement in the near future. They indicate that the general tone towards Bakhit's remarks will be positive, as it marks some progress from where they were one month ago. Still, they anticipate that the statement will call for a broader inclusion of civil society organizations in the monitoring process. Contacts indicated that the statement will likely be released after the conclusion of the candidate registration period on October 24, so as to not acquire a tinge of partisanship. Contacts also point out that Bakhit's verbal remarks on television are a general statement of principle, not guidelines. In the absence of any clear government edict, some civil society organizations are moving forward with their plans for "sidewalk monitoring", with the hope that they will be allowed eventually into the polling stations themselves. ¶9. (C) In a training session put on for candidates by the National Democratic Institute, participants claimed they saw evidence of POSITIVE royal intervention in the government's about face. Note: Unlike previous statements by the Interior Minister, PM Bakhit's interview was laced with references to the King. In one typical moment, he noted that "holding fair and accurate elections" was part of a "model that will satisfy His Majesty the King." End Note. The candidates surmised that Bakhit's announcement was "a win for the King" in the face of the government's desire to pursue a more conservative, control-oriented stance. Several posited that they would use the monitoring debate as an issue in their campaigns, claiming that the government's opacity on monitoring is proof that corruption is widespread. Semantics As Politics -------------- ¶10. (C) The fight over election monitoring has included a dispute over semantics. The government prefers "rasd", which can mean simple "observation" or "surveillance", or "mutaba'a", which is closest to "follow-up" or "pursuit". The NCHR used "rasd" to describe its monitoring efforts during the July municipal elections, in which the organization was not allowed inside polling stations. PM Bakhit has used both "rasd" and "mutaba'a" in his statements to imply that civil society does not need to physically observe the procedure in order to "monitor" the situation. Many civil society organizations prefer the term "muraqaba", which also means observation, but with the implication of supervision or control. This term was disputed by PM Bakhit in his television appearance, in which he said that the elections were not "the result of international pressure so that one might say that elections are supervised." Diplomatic "Follow-Up" -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Bakhit also touched on the role of embassies in monitoring the elections during his televised remarks. Using the term "mutaba'a" ("follow-up"),the Prime Minister said that he "welcome(d) all the representatives of the embassies accredited to Jordan...to monitor this manifestation and highlight the democratic, civilized, and respectable image of the Jordanian state." He then invited embassies to coordinate with the Interior Ministry on how that monitoring would work in practice. Post will be following up with the Interior Ministry in the coming days to clarify the role that embassies will be allowed to play in election monitoring. The Embassy is planning to deploy seven teams on election day that will visit diverse polling stations throughout the country. ¶12. (SBU) Through supplemental USAID subgrants to NDI, Post is also planning to cover some of the costs of training and AMMAN 00004294 003 OF 003 deploying monitors. Based on future clarification on the issue of "follow-up" versus "monitoring", these funds will be used by partner organizations towards either monitoring inside the polling stations or "sidewalk monitoring". Unresolved Issues -------------- ¶13. (C) Questions remain about how the monitoring effort will work in practice. PM Bakhit suggested that civil society organizations work with or through NCHR, but he was unclear about how that would happen and in what time frame. For its part, the NCHR has not yet made any statements about how it would incorporate the efforts of other organizations into its own campaign. Note: The director of the NCHR was out of the country when Bakhit made his statement, but returns to Jordan at the end of this week. End Note. ¶14. (C) Also at issue is how the monitors (either from NCHR, other organizations, or the candidates themselves) will be accredited. According to a USAID contractor working with the Interior Ministry, in the municipal elections General Intelligence Directorate (GID) representatives were present at every polling station to check up on the bona fides of monitors. Neither the Interior Ministry nor the Elections Committee has put forward a suggestion on how they will coordinate with NCHR to accredit official monitors. Comment -------------- ¶15. (C) Comment: The statement by the PM opens the door to at least some monitoring - even if the term "follow-up" is being used as a fig leaf - and comes after several opaque and at times contradictory government statements on the role of civil society in the monitoring effort. Bakhit revealed the government's "true" stance on monitoring eight days after Interior Minister Eid al Fayiz announced that election monitoring by any party other than the candidates themselves or their representatives would be "unconstitutional" (reftel). Post's quiet, high-level advocacy with key advisors to the King on the monitoring issue may also be related to the timing of PM Bakhit's partial door-opening. Regardless of the process to date, the time remaining for Jordan's civil society to effectively prepare to monitor the elections is short. However, Post will use its resources, programs, and influence to ensure that the most is made of this opening, and that the monitoring process is real and credible. End Comment. Hale