MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD FISSURES SHOW AS ELECTION NEARS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004111 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR NEA/ELA E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV KISL KDEM JO SUBJECT: MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD FISSURES SHOW AS ELECTION NEARS REF: A. AMMAN 3989 ¶B. AMMAN 3311 ¶C. AMMAN 3005 ¶D. AMMAN 2668 Classified By: Ambassador David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (S) As Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood (MB) names its candidates for its party (the Islamic Action Front - IAF) for November parliamentary elections, rifts between hawks and doves in the movement emerged in the media, with the doves appearing to be gaining the upper hand. A moderate-laden party election list was announced on October 7, and reports suggest the hawkish IAF chief will step down in favor of a moderate. In PM Bakhit's view, the Islamic movement is on the defensive. End Summary. MB Candidates Expose Rift -------------- ¶2. (C) Following the September 25 announcement by Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood (MB) that its political party, the Islamic Action Front (IAF),will take part in parliamentary elections scheduled for November 20, the focus of the media and our contacts has turned to fissures within the Islamic movement as it drew up candidate lists. The fissures have pitted the hawks, led by IAF Secretary General Zaki Bani-Irsheid, against the doves, led by MB Controller General Salim al-Falahat (ref A). ¶3. (C) The current round of tension surrounding the Brotherhood has bubbled to the surface with the leaking to the press of names of moderate MB members as likely IAF candidates for the Novembers vote prior to the release of the official list on October 7. One unnamed MB member quoted by Al-Hayat newspaper on September 30 said that the doves and centrists in Jordan's MB were "advancing in a noticeable way towards controlling most of the cake of the movement's candidates...accompanied by clear retreat by the candidates of the hawks." COMMENT: Tension within the MB has been an ongoing issue, particularly since the IAF's initial support for the Hamas takeover in Gaza (refs C and D). The split mirrors what many consider to be a generational divide within the movement, and generally pits older, more moderate MB members - who still remember the days of closer MB-regime coordination under the late King Hussein - on one side against the younger, more radical and pro-Hamas members on the other. END COMMENT. ¶4. (SBU) The IAF's candidate list as officially released on October 7 included 22 candidates, including one woman, mostly from the "dovish" faction of the MB. The IAF will field candidates in 11 of Jordan's 12 governorates, and the party reportedly continues to consider fielding additional women candidates to run for the six women's quota seats in the new parliament. IAF party chief Bani-Irsheid was excluded from the final party list because he, according to IAF Deputy Chief Irhayel Al-Ghareibeh, "objected to the final list of candidates." The MB is additionally expected to support independent candidates who support the MB in constituencies that are dominated by tribal voting. Note: In the 2003 parliamentary election, the IAF fielded 30 candidates and won 17 seats. End note. Report: Hawkish IAF Chief to Resign? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Indicative of this internal strife, IAF party chief Bani-Irsheid has been missing-in-action for the last two weeks. He has boycotted MB and IAF Executive Council meetings, skipped an MB-hosted Ramadan iftar, and was not present at the press conference announcing the IAF party list. His absence has been noted throughout this party list formation period, beginning with a surprise meeting between PM Bakhit and four MB leaders that excluded Bani-Irsheid on September 19. Pro-government, pro-Palestinian daily Al-Dustour reported on October 4 that sources within the Islamic movement expect that Bani-Irsheid will resign, with the strongest candidate to replace him being Irhayel Al-Ghareibeh, considered a moderate within the movement. ¶6. (SBU) The MB has publicly downplayed reports of a rift amongst its members, calling disagreements within the movement and party "natural" and part of the democratic process. The sources have been quoted in the media saying that the election list would be voted on and decided democratically within the party. AMMAN 00004111 002 OF 002 PM Tells Ambassador: MB on the Defensive -------------- ¶7. (S) During an October 1 meeting, Prime Minister Bakhit described to the Ambassador the circumstances of his September 19 meeting, ostensibly held to cool the rhetorical clashes between the GOJ and the MB (refs A and B). According to Bakhit, the MB initiated the contact, reaching out to the PM through a casual interaction with Bakhit's cousin at an iftar. The PM then agreed to an off-the-record meeting at his residence midwifed by Minister of Public Sector Reform Mohammad Thuneibat, the brother of an MB leader. The PM told the Ambassador that he was firm with the MB leadership, accusing them of acting irresponsibly in targeting the government and regime out of defensiveness over their flagging popular support. Bakhit attributed the IAF's floating its potential, moderate candidates to a recognition of its own weakness, and the fact that the MB knows that its hawks would lose in the elections. Comment -------------- ¶8. (S) The PM's meeting with MB leaders was a freelance venture, and not reflective of any coordinated GOJ or Royal Court overture to the Islamic movement nor of any deal between the government and the MB (contrary to much of the media commentary, which posits a deal between the two sides for 15 or so parliamentary seats). At the senior levels of the GOJ, the current internal machinations are seen as tactical moves intended to strengthen the IAF's hand before the elections, but do not portend any lessening in the challenge posed by the Islamists. Thus government sources continue to use the press to emphasize links between the MB and Hamas, Iran, and Syria, and to portray the MB's pre-election planning as designed to secure a parliamentary majority by generating support for IAF candidates and non-IAF candidates that would include undeclared IAF candidates and independent tribal candidates. A resignation by Bani-Irsheid would be a dramatic signal of disarray within the famously unified IAF, but with the GOJ seemingly still on the warpath, it's not clear how much farther the MB is prepared to go to cool the rhetoric. Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/ Hale