GOJ REPUDIATES FEDERATION PROPOSALS

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 002267

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2017
TAGS: PREL KPAL PBTS KWBG IS JO
SUBJECT: GOJ REPUDIATES FEDERATION PROPOSALS

REF: TEL AVIV 1331

CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR DAVID HALE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: KING ABDULLAH AND JORDANIAN OFFICIALS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO DISTANCE THE GOJ FROM A JORDANIAN SENATOR'S
SUGGESTION TO ISRAELI POLITICIANS THAT IT IS WORTH EXPLORING
A JORDANIAN-PALESTINIAN FEDERATION BEFORE PALESTINIAN
STATEHOOD. HOWEVER, THE KING'S RECENT ENGAGEMENT WITH
PROMINENT ISRAELIS AND PALESTINIANS HAS INADVERTENTLY FED THE
SUSPICIONS OF CONSPIRACY-MINDED PALESTINIANS IN JORDAN (AND
LIKELY BEYOND) THAT THE HASHEMITES ARE READYING SOME NEW
INITIATIVE THAT WILL UNDERCUT ARAB CONSENSUS IN SUPPORT OF A
SOVEREIGN PALESTINIAN STATE. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) JORDANIAN SENATOR (AND FORMER PM) ABDUL SALAM
AL-MAJALI RECENTLY VISITED ISRAEL (REFTEL) AND SUGGESTED TO A
NUMBER OF ISRAELI POLITICIANS A NEW LOOK AT THE CONCEPT OF A
FEDERATION OF SOME KIND BETWEEN JORDAN AND PALESTINIAN AREAS.
THIS WAS NOT THE FIRST TIME MAJALI HAS FLOATED THE CONCEPT;
HE HAS DONE SO PREVIOUSLY IN ISRAEL AND IN WASHINGTON. KING
ABDULLAH AND OTHER GOJ SPOKESMEN HAVE MADE A POINT OF
REPUDIATING THE IDEA BOTH PUBLICLY AND PRIVATELY.


3. (C) UPON HIS RETURN FROM ISRAEL, MAJALI WAS INSTRUCTED
BY THE KING'S TOP AIDES TO RETRACT HIS SUPPORT OF THE
PROPOSAL.


4. (U) MAJALI APPEARED ON JORDANIAN STATE TELEVISION SHORTLY
AFTER HIS RETURN AND REITERATED THE OFFICIAL GOJ POSITION AT
SOME LENGTH.


5. (U) IN A MAY 10 INTERVIEW WITH EGYPTS'S AL-AHRAM WEEKLY,
KING ABDULLAH, WHEN ASKED ABOUT REVIVED TALK OF A FEDERATION,
REPLIED "ANY DISCUSSION OF FEDERATION OR CONFEDERATION IS
PREMATURE . . . THE FORM OF THE FUTURE OFFICIAL
JORDANIAN-PALESTINIAN RELATIONSHIP IS SOMETHING TO BE DECIDED
BY BOTH AFTER THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN INDEPENDENT PALESTINIAN
STATE."


6. (U) IN PART AS A FURTHER EFFORT TO DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM
MAJALI'S SUGGESTION, KING ABDULLAH'S INDEPENDENCE DAY SPEECH
ON MAY 26 PUT MORE EMPHASIS THAN USUAL ON JORDAN'S SUPPORT
FOR A FULLY SOVEREIGN PALESTINIAN STATE.


7. (U) HOWEVER, THE RECENT FLURRY OF HIGH-PROFILE
JORDANIAN-ISRAELI AND JORDANIAN-PALESTINIAN CONTACTS (WHICH
ARE AIMED AT SUPPORTING THE SECRETARY'S PEACE EFFORTS AND ARE
UNCONNECTED TO THE FEDERATION IDEA) HAVE INADVERTENTLY FED
SPECULATION AMONG SOME JORDANIANS OF PALESTINIAN ORIGIN THAT
THE GOJ IS PREPARING TO SHIFT ITS POSITION ON PALESTINIAN
STATEHOOD, IN PART BECAUSE THOSE ACTIVITIES ARE UNCOORDINATED
WITH THE PA. OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS, THE KING HAS RECEIVED
IN JORDAN THE PRESIDENT OF THE KNESSET (WHO WAS ACTING STATE
PRESIDENT AT THE TIME),OTHER KNESSET MEMBERS, LEADERS OF
JEWISH-AMERICAN GROUPS, AND PALESTINIAN AND ISRAELI PEACE
ACTIVISTS, IN ADDITION TO PM OLMERT AT THE PETRA NOBEL
LAUREATE GATHERING.


8. (C) WHATEVER DAMAGE CONTROL THE GOJ MAY CARRY OUT, THE
HARM FROM MAJALI'S INITIATIVE HAS ALREADY BEEN DONE, FROM A
JORDANIAN PERSPECTIVE. LIKUD LEADER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, IN A
MAY 24 FINANCIAL TIMES INTERVIEW, ENDORSED "SOME KIND OF
FEDERATION OR CONFEDERATION BETWEEN JORDAN AND THE
PALESTINIANS." AN MFA CONTACT TOLD POLCOUNS GLUMLY THAT HE
NOW EXPECTED THOSE WHO SOUGHT AN ALTERNATIVE TO PALESTINIAN
STATEHOOD TO RAISE THE FEDERATION IDEA REGULARLY. PERHAPS
MORE IMPORTANTLY, THOSE IN THE ARAB CAMP WHO ALWAYS CRITICIZE
GOJ ENGAGEMENT WITH ISRAELIS WILL FOOL MANY ON THE JORDANIAN
STREET INTO BELIEVING THAT THE KING'S EFFORTS TO REVIVE THE
PEACE PROCESS ARE REALLY AIMED AT REGAINING FOR THE GOJ A
ROLE IN THE PALESTINIAN AREAS, A PROSPECT AS UNATTRACTIVE AND
UNFEASIBLE TO PALESTINIAN-JORDANIANS AS IT IS TO EAST BANK
JORDANIANS.


VISIT AMMAN'S CLASSIFIED WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.STATE.SGOV.GOV/P/NEA/AMMAN/


HALE