FFS: THE SECULAR OPPOSITION STIRS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ALGIERS 001323 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV AG SUBJECT: FFS: THE SECULAR OPPOSITION STIRS Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Thomas F. Daughton; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Algerian media has been buzzing with the return from Switzerland of liberation hero Hocine Ait Ahmed, founder of the opposition Front des Forces Socialistes (FFS), and his alliance with former FLN Secretary General Abdelhamid Mehri and former Prime Minister Mouloud Hamrouche. Front-page articles have hailed the troika as the secular "alternative" to lift Algeria out of its current crisis. The three men represent a carefully planned alliance beyond strict party lines, designed to re-energize the FFS and transform it from a largely regional party to a national one, with the support and credibility to match. Although the FFS clearly has the November 29 local elections in its immediate sights, the current level of activity is unusual and highly significant -- a quantum leap from the usual clamorous fumbling of Algeria's opposition parties. END SUMMARY. A HERO RETURNS -------------- ¶2. (U) The FFS held its fourth party congress on September 6 at a conference hall near the beach in Zeralda, some 20km east of Algiers. Billed as "the Congress of the Millenium," it featured the triumphant return of FFS founder Hocine Ait Ahmed, a national hero from the Algerian war of independence against the French. The FFS, founded in 1963, is Algeria's oldest opposition party and was originally a Berber party. Recent internal divisions and weakness within the FFS drove Ait Ahmed, now over 80 years old, to return from self-imposed exile in Switzerland to unite his party and acknowledge the need to give the FFS a future that did not depend exclusively on him. Ait Ahmed's shadow is huge, and his credibility make for big shoes to fill. After two days, the FFS elected Karim Tabbou as first national secretary. Tabbou is young, ambitious and well-educated, but he lacks Ait Ahmed's charisma and hallowed nationalist credentials. A SECULAR TRINITY EMERGES -------------- ¶3. (U) After receiving a rock star's welcome from a throng of journalists and thousands of supporters, Ait Ahmed gave a speech that revealed his eloquence but also his age. He occasionally lost track of the pages in his hand, as well as the position of the microphone. Nevertheless, standing ovations greeted his criticism of President Bouteflika's regime and his appeal for more social justice, democracy and greater transparency in Algerian society. His speech, given mostly in French with brief turns of halting Arabic, seemed designed to rally the party faithful more than anything else, as he paved the way for the two more blatantly political speeches that followed. (Note: No Tamazight, the main Algerian Berber language, was used in any of the three speeches. The presenters used French and Arabic, to appeal to a national rather than a regional base. End note.) ¶4. (U) The second speaker was Abdelhamid Mehri, who carries a great deal of current political credibility as the former secretary general of the ruling FLN. Mehri spoke exclusively SIPDIS in Arabic, delving in greater detail into the current political stagnation gripping Algeria. Although not historically part of the FFS, Mehri praised the party faithful for persevering during the 1990s and for overcoming their internal divisions. Despite losing many intellectuals during those years, Mehri proclaimed, the FFS was alive and well and "still had a captain on board" in Ait Ahmed. Mehri ratcheted criticism of the regime up a notch, denouncing the recurring rumors of imminent constitutional change to provide President Bouteflika with a third term and increase the powers of the cabinet. The problem, he said, was not changing the constitution but rather "getting the politicians to respect the constitution they have." ¶5. (U) The crescendo continued with the "guest of honor" of the party congress, Mouloud Hamrouche, a former FLN prime minister. With an impassioned delivery and rhetorical style, Hamrouche gave a speech that whipped the crowd of thousands into a frenzy. He had to pause repeatedly to calm down a crowd that threatened to go beyond the message he intended to deliver. His statement that "the government has no national identity and offers nothing to its citizens" was followed by an emotional account of the current socioeconomic tragedy: at ALGIERS 00001323 002 OF 002 a time of unprecedented wealth, young people (the "harraga") risk their lives daily to escape in tiny boats to Europe because a frozen and stagnant government "failed to offer them any alternative." The crowd's response of "pouvoir assassin" (murderous regime) resembled a soccer match more than a political event. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: This troika is without a doubt the best hope for the Algerian secular opposition we have seen. Their alliance is carefully calculated to unite the past nationalist appeal of Ait Ahmed and the present political credibility of Mehri with Hamrouche's potential as a future national leader. Together they make for a powerful and balanced team, and although their appeal transcends narrow FFS party lines, their coming out at the FFS party congress was electric. Clearly Algerians are hungry for an alternative, and it is reasonable to assume that the Presidency and/or the military find some limited comfort in a popular secular opposition that can help drain support from the fragmented Islamist opposition parties as well as present the appearance of genuine democracy. These events also seem to have been successful in rejuvenating the FFS, although this new political force will not face its first real test until the November local elections. FORD