MEDIA REACTION: DPP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FRANK HSIEH'S

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001659 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - BROOKE SPELLMAN DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: DPP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FRANK HSIEH'S U.S. TRIP, TAIWAN'S UN BID AND CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS ¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news coverage July 24 on DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh's trip to the United States, on KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou's special mayoral fund case, on Taiwan's planned Double Ten Day parade in October, and on a local associate professor, who was killed Monday by a former prison inmate recently released under a nationwide amnesty. The pro-independence "Liberty Times" ran a banner headline on page four that said "Hsieh Talks about [Taiwan's] UN Bid: the United States Will Not Oppose Taiwan's Democratic Approaches." The centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times," in the meantime, carried a news story on page four with the headline "Hsieh Arrives in Washington D.C.; the United States Has Reportedly Upgraded the Level [of Its Officials] Meeting [with Hsieh]." ¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the pro-unification "United Daily News" criticized DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh's U.S. trip. The article said Hsieh's trip is not to "publicize his own political assertions, but to clarify to the United States Chen Shui-bian's widely-doubted policy, or even to clean up the mess Chen has created." A "China Times" analysis discussed Beijing's view on Taiwan's referendum on its UN bid. The article said the referenda proposed by the DPP and the KMT on joining the United Nations under the name of Taiwan have touched on China's bottom line and forced Beijing to start to defend its regime. An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" said that Taiwan's application to join the United Nations as a full member will be "a milestone in Taiwan's movement for democratization and decolonialization even if it fails to bear fruit in the near term." End summary. ¶3. DPP Presidential Candidate Frank Hsieh's U.S. Trip "Frank Hsieh's Visit to the United States: Throwing a Grenade or Dodging One?" The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] editorialized (7/24): "Frank Hsieh's journey to communicate with the United States is almost akin to a 'mission impossible' because it has in its nature seriously violated political logic and common practices. The major purpose of Hsieh's U.S. trip in the capacity of a presidential candidate is, surprisingly, not to publicize his own political assertions, but to clarify to the United States Chen Shui-bian's widely-doubted policy, or even to clean up the mess Chen has created. Hsieh's hands are tied by at least two issues related to Chen: First, he must support 'the referendum on Taiwan's bid to join the UN under the name Taiwan;' and second, he must deny (or at least not pledge to) the 'Four Nos and One Without.' ... "The matter is that the United States has repeatedly said it opposes to 'the referendum on the island's UN bid under the name Taiwan,' and that it has constantly maintained that the Taiwan authorities must adhere to the "Four Nos and One Without' pledge. Should Hsieh is able to exercise his free will, and given his quick wits and resourceful tactics, surely he will by no means choose to stand on the opposite side of the United States in terms of these two issues, and surely he will hope that Washington will treat him separately from Chen. But since Chen has already put Hsieh on a short leash, and the various scandals that Hsieh was allegedly involved in have made him vulnerable and thus heavily reliant on Chen [to fix the scandals], Hsieh will certainly have to make a choice between 'echoing the U.S. [position]/drawing a line between himself and Chen' and 'echoing Chen's [position]/acting perfunctorily to explain to the United States.' He must choose one of the two options, and there is no way he can please both sides. "Hsieh must prudently address the doubts of the United States. Since U.S. policy is not formed overnight, the chances are slim for him to parry the U.S. questioning in a crafty and perfunctory manner. Also, during the communication process, Hsieh must watch and act carefully so as not to lead Washington to a negative evaluation of his personality and credibility, or he will lose both externally and internally [i.e. his face and the benefit of U.S. trust]. ... But as of now, it seems that Hsieh is still arguing with the United States using the kind of political rhetoric suitable for domestic consumption. He said he must first figure out what it is that the United States is opposed to with regard to Taiwan's 'referendum on its UN bid under the name Taiwan.' ... Hsieh is in reality borrowing the tricks used by Chen, namely, to break down the major proposition into smaller parts in an attempt to create confusion. Such a move may work as a political smoke screen in Taiwan, but if Hsieh is trying to apply such third-class sophistry to deal with the United States shamelessly, Washington will surely feel insulted, [being treated] like a political idiot. ... "Hsieh's journey of 'love and trust' this time is unexpectedly tangled deeply with Chen's issues of 'referendum on Taiwan's UN bid' and the 'Four Nos and One Without' pledge. These are definitely not assets for Hsieh's campaign. As a result, what one sees now in terms of news reports on Hsieh's U.S. trip is the weird contrast of Hsieh 'lashing out at Ma Ying-jeou in the United States but facing an impasse in his communication with Washington.' ... If Hsieh wants to throw grenades at Ma, why did he have to fly all the way to the United States? But even though he is now far away in the United States, it seems obvious that Hsieh has failed to dodge the grenades thrown at him from Chen!" ¶4. Taiwan's UN Bid and Cross-Strait Relations A) "Showdown on the Referendum on Joining the United Nations -- a Battle for Beijing to Defend Its Regime" Journalist Wang Ming-yi said in an analysis in the centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] (7/24): "In terms of the [Taiwan] presidential election, there seems to have four pairs of candidates now! In addition to Frank Hsieh and Ma Ying-jeou who are nominated by political parties, President Chen, whose term of office will end next year but who still expresses radical policy remarks, acts as if he will run in the election. In particular, the Bian-dominated referendum on joining the United Nations has touched on the sensitive nerve across the Taiwan Strait, and has successfully drawn [Chinese President] Hu Jintao into Taiwan's presidential election. The issues of national identity, ethnic differentiation, and debates on unification [with China] or independence [of Taiwan] reflected by the "China factor" during the campaign process remain to be critical for winning the presidential election. ... "In fact, even though the cooperative mechanism established by the KMT-Chinese Communist Party Forum has eased the stalemate across the Taiwan Strait, the political contradiction between the KMT and the CCP, same as the cross-Strait antagonism on the sovereignty issue, are hard to solve. In order to deal with the DPP's tactics, the KMT pushed for another referendum on joining the United Nations. Although this is just a tactical manipulation, which is also a way to dilute the effect of the DPP-proposed referendum on votes (i.e. to use a bogus issue to counter another bogus issue),and since Taiwan still cannot join the United Nations even following the legal procedure to pass a referendum, Beijing still strongly believes that the move is sending a wrong signal of 'touching the bottom line.' ... "The manipulation of the referendum on joining the United Nations is one of the winning tactics for the DPP to remain in power; for the KMT, it is the last fight to become again the ruling party. But for Beijing, the execution of counter-measures against the referenda is to avoid moving to the stage of a showdown, and it is akin to another 'war in defense of the regime'... " B) "Taiwan's UN Bid Marks Maturity" The pro-independence, English language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 20,000] editorialized (7/24): "The application submitted to United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon by President Chen Shui-bian for Taiwan's full membership in the U.N. last Thursday will be a milestone in Taiwan's movement for democratization and decolonialization even if it fails to bear fruit in the near term. It is undeniable that the People's Republic of China, which is intensely opposed to bids by Taiwan to enter any sovereignty-based international organizations, holds a permanent U.N. Security Council seat and can directly veto Taiwan's application as well as rely on a host of allies in the General Assembly to block debate on our application. "However, excessive preoccupation with the short-term prospects for success would overlook the reasons why this initiative is absolutely necessary and why the application for full U.N. membership under the name of 'Taiwan,' regardless of the fact that the anachronistic 'Republic of China' remains our constitutional moniker, has crucial long-term political significance and educational value. ... Taiwan's people only gained a 'voice' through the hard-bought success of the Taiwan democracy movement with the May 1996 assumption of a government fully elected by the Taiwan people, and consolidated their voice with the transfer of power in May 2000 to a government led by Taiwan's home-grown center-left Democratic Progressive Party. ... Instead, a referendum will offer all Taiwan citizens an opportunity to directly participate in their own self-determination and show the U.N. precisely how many Taiwan citizens are knocking on its door." YOUNG