MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS; CROSS-STRAIT

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001523 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - BROOKE SPELLMAN DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS; CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news coverage July 4-5 on the Executive Yuan's decision on Wednesday to revoke the National Communication Commission's (NCC) approval of the sale of the Broadcasting Corporation of China to former [pan-Blue] Legislator Jaw Shaw-kang. The other focus is a seven-year high that TAIEX reached on Wednesday by passing the 9000-point mark. In terms of editorials and commentaries, Commentator Frank Ching said in the pro-status quo, English-language "China Post" that President Chen Shui-bian's intention to push for holding a referendum on joining the United Nations under the name Taiwan has anything to do with the upcoming legislative election and presidential election in early 2008. Commentator Michael Lin opined in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" that cross-Strait economic integration is not an inevitable trend, because a majority of Taiwanese believe that Taiwan's economy has already been hurt by overheated cross-Strait trade, and because China's economy is not as good as it seems. End summary. ¶1. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations "China and U.S. Close Ranks on Taiwan" Commentator Frank Ching said in the pro-status quo, English-language "China Post" [circulation: 30,000] (07/04): "China and the United States have closed ranks in opposing the latest antic by Taiwan's leader Chen Shui-bian: to hold a referendum on whether the people of the island agree that it should apply to join the United Nations using the name Taiwan. "On the surface, this does not seem like much of an issue since Taiwan is not going to be admitted into the United Nations anyway, regardless of what name it decides to use. "... The fact that any application is doomed to failure is irrelevant since Chen's purpose is not to join the United Nations but rather to work up the Taiwan population in the months leading up to parliamentary and presidential elections early next year. "... Past performance has shown that Mr. Chen, whenever facing an election, would take action to energize his political base of pro-independence supporters. The real significance of this referendum is the laying of the groundwork for a formal change in name from 'Republic of China' to 'Taiwan.' "... Even if the referendum does not pass, it is likely to draw pro-independence voters to the ballot box and thus increase the number of seats won by the DPP in the parliamentary elections and, possibly, spell the difference between victory by Frank Hsieh, the DPP candidate, and Ma Ying-jeou, candidate of the opposition Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang (KMT). "Thus, President Chen has much to gain and little to lose. Even if Washington is upset by his defiance, it is not in a position to do much in terms of penalizing him, other than by denying - or more likely restricting - his travel plans when he applies for a transit visa next month. "The reality is that Mr. Chen knows that he has the United States over a barrel. In spite of its official position of having no preference over whether Taiwan becomes independent or opts for unification with mainland China, it is widely assumed that Washington does not want to see Taiwan taken over by mainland China, thus increasing the power and influence of Beijing. "Besides, Chen can keep playing the democracy card and say that it is the right of the people of Taiwan to hold a referendum. In fact, he has already said that the American people, if not the State Department, are on his side. "... In the end, therefore, all this posturing about the United Nations is only meant to influence the outcome of the elections next year. The United States knows this too, but does not want Taiwan to hold the referendum simply because it knows China will be angered. And China is opposed because it fears not only the short-term electoral impact of such a move but also the long-term effect such a referendum will have on the sense of Taiwan identity and the preference of Taiwan's 23 million people for separateness rather than unification with the mainland." ¶2. Cross-Strait Relations "China not as Good as Future Trend Guru Claims" Commentator Michael Lin opined in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] (7/4): RELATIONS "In a lecture in Taiwan, future trend guru John Naisbitt one-sidedly praised China's economic boom, saying that cross-strait economic integration was an inevitable trend. However, he ignored two major problems. "First, more than 60 percent of Taiwanese believe that the economy has already been hurt by overheated cross-strait trade and will suffer even more severely if the trend continues. Therefore, unless Taiwanese are willing to be unified with China, it is practically impossible to integrate the two economies. "Second, China's economy is not as good as Naisbitt says. The book Fault Lines in China's Economic Terrain, published by RAND Corp, lists eight major problems with the Chinese economy that will continue to crop up over the next ten years and which will affect its development. Naisbitt made a point of ignoring these faults. "... Naisbitt just happened to avoid these major problems during his lecture and question-and-answer session. I don't know if he truly doesn't understand the fragile side of China's economic development, or if he simply chose to ignore it. But it is certain that he lacks a clear understanding of Taiwanese society. One must already have a certain 'Mind Set,' which also is the title of his latest book, to keep emphasizing the importance of cross-strait economic integration, and to so seriously misunderstand Taiwan's future economic 'trends.'" YOUNG