TAIWAN VICE PREMIER ON THE CABINET CHANGE

S E C R E T AIT TAIPEI 001203 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR STATE FOR EAP/TC, USTR FOR STRATFORD AND ALTBACH AND GRIER, USDOC FOR 4431/ITA/MAC/AP/OPB/TAIWAN/JDUTTON USDA/FAS FOR SHEIKH/MIRELES TREASURY FOR OASIA/LMOGHTADER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2017 TAGS: ETRD ECON PREL WTRO TW SUBJECT: TAIWAN VICE PREMIER ON THE CABINET CHANGE REF: TAIPEI 822 Classified By: AIT DIRECTOR STEPHEN YOUNG FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) CLASSIFIED BY: AIT DIRECTOR STEPHEN M. YOUNG FOR REASONS 1.5 (b),(c) ¶1. (C) Summary: AIT Director Young called on newly installed Vice Premier Chiou Yi-jen. Chiou reiterated Taiwan's desire for quick and successful trade negotiations under TIFA and noted Taiwan's business community remains concerned about the potential impact of the South Korean-US Free Trade Agreement. Taiwan will forge ahead with financial-sector reform. Chiou was pessimistic about prospects over the next few months for passage of the annual budget, including defense spending, or for finalization of cross-Strait flights or tourism during the Chen Administration. End Summary. ¶2. (U) On May 30, AIT Director Young paid a courtesy call on newly installed Vice Premier Chiou Yi-jen to discuss policy under Taiwan's latest cabinet. Chiou had no aides in the room. AIT ECON Chief accompanied the Director. ¶3. (C) When asked why he had been selected to be the new Vice Premier, Chiou cited two reasons. First, and probably foremost, Chiou believed that President Chen Shui-bian wanted Chiou to be in a position to support DPP candidate Frank Hsieh's campaign for the presidency in 2008. Second, Chiou suggested that some tension had developed between Taiwan's business community, and former Premier Su Tseng-chang and his Vice Premier Tsai Ing-wen. Later in the conversation Chiou specifically referred to the failed bid by Carlyle Group to buy Taiwan's Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE) as an example of the tension between the former cabinet leadership and the business community. Financial Sector Reform -------------- ¶4. (C) Chiou intends to pursue further financial sector reform and seemed to be chiding Su/Tsai for not having advanced this agenda item during their watch. Echoing the policy followed while Frank Hsieh was premier (January 2005 - January 2006),he said he has urged Finance Minister Ho Chih-ching to sell off a large state-owned commercial bank to a foreign bank. Chiou succinctly said the need for this policy is to inject competitive rigor into Taiwan's banking sector. He complained that leadership positions in Taiwan state-run banks are filled by a very small group of people who rotate around and don't want to make any changes. (Comment: Ironically enough, the foreign business community in Taiwan says precisely the same thing about the Chen Administration's practice in filling leadership positions in the Cabinet.) End comment. TIFA -------------- ¶5. (C) The Director briefed Chiou on TIFA arrangements, including the upcoming DVCs on investment, taxation and pharmaceutical issues and the TIFA Council meeting scheduled for July in Washington. The Director emphasized that Washington Agencies are fully energized on the TIFA process and working hard to have real progress to show at for the July meeting. He noted that reaching agreements like those under discussion is a complex processes that will take time. He noted that AUSTR Stratford may visit Taiwan in June and would look forward to meeting Chiou. The Vice Premier said Taiwan takes the TIFA process very seriously and is making every effort to make the meetings successful. Indicating he was already familiar with the TIFA process, Chiou noted that Taiwan has already passed its proposed agenda to AIT. Interestingly enough, Chiou did not emphasize the immediate need for rapid progress on TIFA negotiations that former Vice Premier Tsai had focused on in her last two meetings with the Director. KORUS FTA -------------- ¶6. (C) The Director related that Tsai Ing-wen and Minister of Economic Affairs Steve Chen (Ruey-long) had told us of Taiwan's serious concern over the possible impact of the U.S.-South Korea FTA on Taiwan's exports. Chiou agreed that Taiwan's business community is nervous about the potential impact and said Taiwan would appreciate any detailed information that AIT could supply on the agreement. The Director advised Chiou that AIT will be approaching Taiwan in the near future to seek market access for bone-in beef exports from the U.S. Chiou nodded that he understood, but made no further comment. Export Controls -------------- ¶7. (S) The Director expressed appreciation for Taiwan's efforts to date on enhancing export controls. In particular, he noted that a Taiwan firm is under investigation for illegally exporting machine tools. Clearly familiar with the issue and the details, Chiou asked if the Director was referring to the Ching Hwee case. The Director confirmed he was talking about Ching Hwee (reftel) and urged Taiwan to continue its investigations. DPP vs. KMT -------------- ¶8. (C) Asked about the prospects for approval of the annual budget, Chiou said it is not likely to pass anytime soon. He said the DPP and the KMT have come closer together on resolving the Central Election Commission (CEC) issue, but now the KMT has raised two other controversial bills. These bills cover the presidential and vice presidential elections and the referendum law. The DPP, according to Chiou seeks to deal with all three bills as a package and while progress has been made on the CEC, the two sides remain far apart on the two new bills. (Note: The news on May 31 suggests that the DPP and KMT have come to an agreement on the CEC issue, which may lead quickly to the passage of the budget and other spending bills. End Note.) Presidential Race -------------- ¶9. (C) Chiou was fairly coy in his response on the outlook for the presidential race. He said the DPP chances of winning are good when compared to its position a year ago. He added that the gap in the polls between Frank Hsieh and KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou is steadily narrowing. Regarding campaign issues, Chiou noted that he is not close to Hsieh, but expects Taiwan identify will remain an important issue. Further, he expects Hsieh to push the notion he can solve the standoff between the DPP executive and pan-Blue-controlled legislative branches. Cross-Strait -------------- ¶10. (C) Chiou thought progress in the next few months on cross-Strait issues was not likely. He said discussions on the three major areas of cargo flights, passenger flights and tourism are almost complete. But he believes Beijing is not willing to give any sort of success to Chen Shui-bian before he steps down as President and so will not allow any agreements to proceed. Chiou believes the new Mainland Affairs Council Chair, Chen Ming-tong holds the same view and that his recent public comments are designed to highlight that Beijing is to blame for the lack of progress. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Though Chiou lacks the extensive economic background of his predecessor as Vice Premier, Tsai Ing-wen, he more than makes up for that with his close and on-going ties to President Chen. We expect more substantive oversight on TIFA and trade issues generally will devolve under Chiou to MOEA's Steve Chen. YOUNG