SOMALIA: HAWIYE CLAN MANEUVERS FOR ASCENDANCY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000953 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV KISL ET ER SO DJ SUBJECT: SOMALIA: HAWIYE CLAN MANEUVERS FOR ASCENDANCY WITHIN TFG REF: ASMARA 316 (NOTAL) Classified By: ANTHONY FISHER, PAO. REASON: 1.4 (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Contacts in Ethiopia remark that Hawiye dissident MPs, led by former Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFG) Speaker of Parliament Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan and journeying through Eritrea and Djibouti, are trying to secure support as a potential alternative leadership to the TFG, by playing on regional animosities to Ethiopia. While Eritrea may give some support, cautious Djibouti will certainly punt in favor of national reconciliation. END SUMMARY. -------------- HAWIYE DISSIDENTS LOOK TO ERITREA FOR SUPPORT -------------- ¶2. (C) Somalia's Hawiye clan in the past month has embarked on a campaign in neighboring countries to improve their chances to emerge more politically powerful after coming reconciliation talks now scheduled for May 16. Col. Mohammed Ibrahim Gober (strictly protect) a former chief of security for Mogadishu during Siad Barre's administration, informed PAO on February 6 that 42 parliamentarians, primarily from the Hawiye clan and led by Somalia's ex-speaker of Parliament Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan, had gone to Asmara for meetings with Eritrea's government (GSE). (NOTE: In November 2006, Hassan traveled to Mogadishu to broker an agreement with the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC),without the approval of the President or Prime Minister of Somalia. END NOTE.) The Hawiye, according to Gober, are angling to eventually assume the presidency of the TFG. -------------- ERITREA, THE ENEMY OF MY ENEMY, IS MY FRIEND -------------- ¶3. (C) Subsequent reports from PAO's Somali contact, Ahmed Ibrahim (strictly protect) and other Somali Internet news agencies, indicate that Adan is trying to establish an opposition camp in Eritrea with the GSE's support. Ahmed opined that the move by the opposition MPs was intended to get Eritrean support, and part of an effort to secure outside support to eventually take over Somalia, as well as to oust African Union peacekeepers and the Ethiopians. On March 15, the TFG in Baidoa condemned any effort to form a second 'Somalia government' in Eritrea, giving the dissident parliamentarians thirty days for all the MPs outside the country to return to Baidoa, or be dismissed from their positions. The MPs earlier had been prohibited from returning to Parliament. So far, none of the dissident MPs, including Adan, have returned. Ahmed added that the dissident MPs will be forming a political organization later this month, whose intent is opposition to Ethiopian occupation of Somalia, and to the Ugandan and other international peacekeepers. According to Ahmed, the group led by Adan is sympathetic to the former CIC, but they do not have the same radical Salafist agenda. -------------- DISSIDENTS LOOK TO SWAY DJIBOUTI -------------- ¶4. (C) According to Ahmed, 19 parliamentarians in the group went to Djibouti as guests of the Djibouti government. Queried by the PAO as to why the dissident MPs were seeking Djiboutian President Guelleh's support, Ahmed replied that although Guelleh was an Issa, Djibouti had improved relations with Eritrea. Since Eritrea opposed Ethiopia, Djibouti may be swayed. Further, Ahmed claimed that given President Guelleh's close ties to all clans in Somalia (including, briefly, some of the Islamic Court representatives such as CIC Consultative Committee Chairman Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys),Guelleh could be receptive to the dissidents approach. -------------- PLAYING ON DJIBOUTIAN FEARS ADDIS ABAB 00000953 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶5. (C) Ahmed said that the dissidents would try to play on fears the Djiboutians may have, about relations with Ethiopia, to gain Djibouti's support. This includes Ethiopia's efforts to dominate Djibouti economically, and any differences between the Issa tribes in Ethiopia and Issa leadership in Djibouti. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: The dissident MPs may be attempting to exploit the historical enmity of Eritrea, and to a lesser extent Djibouti, toward Ethiopia. Eritrea hosts some 13 liberation groups in varying degrees of opposition to Ethiopia, and may want to add these dissident MPs to the list. Swaying the Djiboutians will be difficult, given their support for national reconciliation in Somalia, and opposition to dissident movements which undercut stability and are bad for business. END COMMENT. ¶7. (U) Embassies Asmara, Djibouti, and Nairobi have cleared. YAMAMOTO