ETHIOPIA: INTER-PARTY TALKS CONTINUE WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003492

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E, DRL FOR SJOSEPH, AND INR/B
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND CENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: INTER-PARTY TALKS CONTINUE WITH
OPPOSITION ON THE OUTSIDE

REF: ADDIS ABAB 2110 AND PREVIOUS

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Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO FOR REASON 1.4 (D).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: More than five months since wrapping up
negotiations on a revised electoral law and election of a new
National Election Board, the ruling Ethiopian People's
Revolutionary Democratic Movement (EPRDF) party has finally
restarted the inter-party dialogue with opposition parties.
However, after the three most significant opposition parties
walked out of the previous round of talks, the EPRDF has
privately and publicly insisted that these parties formally
apologize before being allowed back to the negotiating table.
Leaders of the opposition parties have told Post that they
will not apologize and will forego participation in dialogue
on the final two points of the agreed six-point agenda--press
law reform and political party financing. Indeed, the EPRDF
has gone on without these groups, and on November 19, began
discussions on a revised press law with the remaining two
pseudo-opposition groups. Post will continue working to
encourage both sides to reconsider their stubborn positions
and to reengage with one another. Failing that, we will work
to establish a forum outside the established Parliamentary
inter-party talks in order to address other important issues,
to which both sides have expressed potential willingness.
END SUMMARY.

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AGENDA COMPREHENSIVE, BUT TALKS START STRONG
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2. (SBU) Following the May 2005 elections and subsequent
domestic controversy, the ruling Ethiopian People's
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) party agreed to engage
with major opposition groups to address a number of pertinent
issues, including parliamentary rules of procedure, rule of
law, electoral and press law reform, and political party
financing (reftel). In addition to key EPRDF figures'
participation in these talks, party leaders from the
Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP),the United
Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF),Oromo Federal Democratic
Movement (OFDM) and United Ethiopian Democratic Party )
Medhin (UEDP-Medhin) were invited, representing all major
opposition parties. While an encouraging sign that the EPRDF
was willing to host these talks and address these issues,
progress has been slow. After more than two years, the
inter-party forum has completed work on parliamentary rules
of procedure, rule of law and a new electoral law, which
included nomination of a new National Election Board (NEB),a
flash point from the previous elections.


3. (SBU) Unfortunately, discussions over the electoral law,
perhaps the most controversial of all the agreed agenda
items, proved to be the issue that undid the inter-party
cooperation. The three major opposition parties (CUDP, UEDF,
and OFDM) all had disagreements with EPRDF proposals and felt
that their input was being vetoed out of hand by the EPRDF.
After several frustrating meetings, these parties walked out
of the talks on the electoral law, saying they would rejoin
once the forum began on another topic. Though angered by the
opposition's unwillingness to stay at the negotiating table,
the EPRDF continued discussions with UEDP-Medhin, as well as
a breakaway faction of the CUDP led by Ayele Chamisso.
(NOTE: Chamisso is an Addis Ababa city councilmember-elect
who had been one of the original founders of the CUDP.
However, internal power struggles led to his split with CUDP
leader Temesgen Zewdie. Since that time, Chamissso, who has
neither the support of any sitting MPs nor those leaders
recently released from prison, has drifted closer to the
EPRDF in an seeming attempt to gain political relevance. END
NOTE.) Though the EPRDF claims publicly to be actively
working with "opposition" members, both of these groups are
widely viewed as opposition in name only ) each having
little support among voters and being perceived as too close
to the government. Talks on electoral law concluded with
parliament ratifying the law and approving the PM's
nomination for a new NEB in June, despite opposition MPs
votes against both steps.

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THE SUMMER OF DISCONTENT
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4. (SBU) After June, continuation of the inter-party dialogue
was delayed largely due to the GoE's preliminary work on a
proposed new press law. Post had engaged with the GoE in
2006 to provide an international best practice study
regarding press laws, followed by retention of an
international expert consultant to help draft a proposal
specific for Ethiopia in cooperation with GoE officials.
Following submission of the draft law, negotiations between
the GoE and the expert (monitored by Post) continued
throughout the summer of 2007. Since the discussions ended
in September 2007, the GoE has been working to revise the
expert's final draft into a proposed law. The GoE completed
this work and issued invitations to participating opposition
parties to recommence the inter-party dialogue on November 19.


5. (SBU) Though each of the three major opposition parties
insisted that they would like to rejoin the talks after
walking out of the electoral law negotiations, it NOW appears
that none will be invited. Since the last round of talks
concluded, the EPRDF has demanded that the opposition leaders
apologize for having walked out and to commit to staying
engaged on the final two topics - press law and political
party financing. Though opposition leaders have informally
and formally communicated to the GoE that they regret having
not been part of the end of the electoral law discussions, as
well as committing to remaining part of the process, none are
willing to tell the EPRDF they are "sorry." Despite Post's
repeated efforts to broker a settlement, both sides remain
firm. The GoE insists on a verbal apology to the negotiating
group, while opposition leaders maintain they have more to
lose by apologizing. Opposition leaders (likely rightfully)
fear that the EPRDF will publicize this apology, thus shaming
the leaders in public and in the eyes of their constituents.
EPRDF leaders themselves acknowledged that in Ethiopian
culture apologizing makes one look like a "sissy." In a
meeting with opposition leaders on November 23, they told
Ambassador that they have resigned themselves to the fact
that they will not be part of joint talks and will not seek
any involvement in talks on press law or political party
finance.

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PRIDE TRUMPS PROGRESS - POST SEEKS MIDDLE GROUND
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6. (C) COMMENT: Despite concerted efforts by the Ambassador
and Post, the obstacles to the inter-party talks on issues
critical for Ethiopia's democratization--particularly
following the setbacks after the May 2005 elections--have
been disappointing and frustrating. The agreed-upon agenda
items addressed many of the opposition's primary concerns
before the elections. Though there was some notable progress
on the first agenda items of parliamentary rules of procedure
and rule of law, it would have been very beneficial in
advancing Ethiopia's slow march toward democratization had
both the EPRDF and opposition parties reached agreement on
the key areas of electoral and press law reform.
Unfortunately, the ruling party appears committed to exacting
a political gain at the expense of the opposition, rather
than engaging and working seriously with representatives of
roughly one-third of the electorate on strengthening
democratic practices and institutions. In the face of such
an obstinate interlocutor unwilling to accommodate opposition
considerations, the opposition is left with two options: 1)
remain engaged in processes over which they yield no
substantive influence--effectively giving credibility to the
ruling party's agenda; or 2) leave the process entirely.
Unless the EPRDF (and NEB) demonstrate greater accommodation
of the opposition in the coming campaign season, the
opposition may face a similar dilemma. An opposition boycott
of the local elections would deliver a resounding blow to
Ethiopia's democratization process. Currently, however,
opposition leaders are taking the moral high road and have
stated that they will participate in the local elections.


7. (C) Though some remnants of opposition party
representation remain engaged in talks, these parties are
mostly irrelevant to opposition supporters, and generally do
not represent views counter to the EPRDF's. The GoE
undoubtedly knows that having buy-in from more vocal
opposition groups would have been politically beneficial by

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quieting voter discontent. However, both the EPRDF's and
opposition's horns remain locked, with neither side willing
to budge and face public embarrassment for having given in.
With no apparent chance of convincing either side to relent,
Post is focused on creating an alternative forum in which
both sides can sit down to discuss other critical issues
outside these formal agenda items. Specifically, in the run
up to local elections to be held in April (septel),and the
many controversial issues already surrounding how these will
be held, a forum in which both sides can address concerns
will be essential ) an issue which both sides fortunately
agree upon. END COMMENT
YAMAMOTO