ETHIOPIA: ALL IS QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT, FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003376 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E , AND INR/AA LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2017 TAGS: PBTS KPKO MOPS PREF PREL ET ER SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: ALL IS QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT, FOR NOW Classified By: Political/Economic Chief Michael C. Gonzales for Reasons 1.4 (b)(d). ¶1. (C//NF) SUMMARY. On November 18-19, PolOff and RefCoord traveled to Shire/Inda Silase in northwest Tigray to meet with United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) military observers (milobs) and separately with Ethiopian Administration of Refugees and Returnee Affairs (ARRA) officials at the Eritrean refugee registration center in Inda Baguna. UNMEE milobs said they had seen little Ethiopian military activity since the end of October, but assessed the army would need only 2-3 days to transition to an offensive military posture. At the Inda Baguna refugee center, the number of Eritrean refugees during October had increased to 670, more than twice the previous month's average--probably because of increased border tensions and the end of the rainy season which made cross-border movement easier as young men were attempting to escape Eritrean military service. Embassy officers traveling between Axum, Inda Silase, and Inda Baguna--the only east-west road in northern Tigray--observed minimal military activity. END SUMMARY. -------------- SECTOR WEST QUIET... -------------- ¶2. (C//NF) The military observers at UNMEE Team Site Inda Silase reported that they had seen minimal Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) activity since late October when the ENDF rotated the 31st infantry division off of the front lines near Badme--where it had been deployed for several years--and replaced it with the 22nd division previously located outside of the Adjacent Area. With the Team Site situated directly on the main road, the milobs noted they were able to observe all traffic, day and night, moving towards Badme coming from either ENDF Central Command HQs--the HQs for Sector West--in Inda Silase, Adigrat to the East, or Gonder to the south. UNMEE milobs said they patrolled Central Command HQs and ENDF regimental garrisons in the area 2-3 times a day. The milobs stated they had good freedom of movement in the sector and that the ENDF was generally cooperative. -------------- - ...BUT ETHIOPIAN MILITARY READINESS LEVEL HIGH -------------- - �00A; ¶3. (C//NF) Despite the lack of recent military activity, the milobs assessed that the ENDF would need only 2-3 days to transition into an offensive posture if Ethiopia was preparing to initiate war, although they questioned whether the military had sufficient logistic stockpiles to sustain a long operation. One milob commented that he had not seen a large buildup of supplies. The milobs reported that several batteries of the ENDF's new Chinese 155mm towed artillery pieces were kept inside shelters in travel mode hitched to trucks ready to be deployed on short notice. ¶4. (C//NF) The milobs said they would be among the first to detect any change in the ENDF's military posture because the milobs would see the activity at Central Command HQ including from the truck transportation unit based there. They also reported that the large ENDF military hospital at Adi Hageray remained in caretaker status. The milobs noted the activation of this hospital would be a key indicator of impending conflict. They also reported that UNMEE had been invited to observe some parts of the ENDF's annual dry season training cycle scheduled to begin in the coming weeks. -------------- ERITREAN REFUGEE INFLOW ON THE RISE -------------- ¶5. (C//NF) At the Eritrean refugee registration center in Inda Baguna, an ARRA official noted that during October they had registered 670 new Eritrean refugees, more than double the previous monthly average. The official speculated that the increase may be a result of the recent political problems between Ethiopia and Eritrea--most of the refugees were young men who appeared to be escaping military service--but also ADDIS ABAB 00003376 002 OF 002 noted that the end of the rainy season typically results in an increase as movement across the border becomes easier. ¶6. (C//NF) Embassy officers observed approximately 30 young Eritrean men at the center who had come across the border in the previous week, many of whom were still wearing their Eritrean army uniforms and the iconic "shida" black plastic sandals. The refugees insisted they were all civilians, despite being in uniform, and declined to answer questions about their experiences because, according to a local NGO worker, the refugees feared being identified in the media and the effect that would have on their families' safety back in Eritrea. The NGO worker reported that the Eritrean military had recently tightened their control of the border to limit escape and that more Eritreans have been getting killed attempting to leave Eritrea. -------------- THE ROAD LESS TRAVELED -------------- ¶7. (C//NF) In driving from Axum to Inda Silase to Inda Baguna and back--the only east-west road between Sector Central and Sector West in Tigray--Embassy officers observed more camels than soldiers as the visible military presence was minimal and saw no obvious indication of heightened military tensions. Tigray was in peak harvest time as men, women, and children were busy harvesting teff by hand as they have done in the region for centuries. Primarily, the only apparent reminders of war were those of wars past with many abandoned tanks and armored vehicles left to rust in the sun and children playing on 500 lb bomb casings in roadside villages. Embassy officers saw little activity at ENDF Central Command HQ and occasionally passed scattered Tigrean militia, old men with AK-47s, walking along the road at the end of the harvest day. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C//NF) Although the ENDF is clearly at a high state of military readiness, Post would expect to see increased activity along the border area if Ethiopia was considering taking military action prior to the November 30 Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission demarcation by geographic coordinates. The lack of truck movement, day or night, and the empty hospital are strong indicators that Ethiopia remains in a defensive posture. The visit highlighted the prime location of the UNMEE Team Site and the utility of sustaining UNMEE, for its potential early-warning role, after its current mandate expires. END COMMENT. YAMAMOTO