A/F FRAZER AND EC DEVELOPMENT COMMISSIONER MICHEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000326 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/E, AND AF/SPG LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM SO SU EUN AU SUBJECT: A/F FRAZER AND EC DEVELOPMENT COMMISSIONER MICHEL DISCUSS SOMALIA AND SUDAN REF: ADDIS ABABA 311 (NOTAL) Classified By: ERIC WONG, DEPUTY POL-ECON COUNSELOR. REASON: 1.4 (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. In a January 30 meeting with AF A/S Frazer on the margins of the African Union Summit, EC Development Commissioner Louis Michel said that he would recommend the release of EU peacekeeping funds earmarked for Somalia, as soon as the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia (TFG) announced the convening of a national reconciliation conference, which President Yusuf planned to hold within two to three weeks. Reporting on recent meetings with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles and President Yusuf, Michel noted disagreement between the two leaders on how to resolve the issue of providing either compensation or restitution to Somalis whose land had been confiscated by the Ayr sub-clan. As the principal backers of the ousted Council of Islamic Courts, addressing this concern of the Ayr will be key to promoting political reconciliation in Somalia. On Sudan, Michel said President Bashir required further "guarantees" from the international community: despite U.S. overtures, Bashir was concerned that he had placed himself at risk in accepting the Darfur Peace Agreement, and sought greater international pressure on non-signatories. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) On January 30, on the margins of the African Union Summit, AF A/S Frazer met with European Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid Louis Michel, who was accompanied by Head of the EC's Delegation to Ethiopia Ambassador Tim Clarke, EC Delegation POLAD Dietmar Krissler, and other EC staff. U.S. PermRep to the AU (USAU) Ambassador Courville, AF/SPG Director Lauren Landis, AF/RSA Desk Officer John Kelley, and deputy pol-econ counselor (note-taker) accompanied A/S Frazer. -------------- -------------- SOMALI RECONCILIATION CONGRESS FULFILLS EU CONDITIONALITY -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Commissioner Michel noted that he had recently conducted consultations on Somalia with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, Sudanese President Omar Bashir, and Somali TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf. Michel reported that TFG President Yusuf had stated that he would hold a national reconciliation congress within two to three weeks, to include representatives of Somalia's religious authorities, clans, the diaspora, and civil society. Yusuf had also invited some 21 dissident members of the TFG Parliament, who had exiled themselves in Djibouti, to return to Baidoa. "That's good news for me," Michel said, adding that "as soon as the invitations are sent," the "EU Commission's conditions are fulfilled." Michel said he would therefore recommend the release of funds to Somalia. (NOTE: Since early 2006, at least some 15 million Euros have been earmarked by the EU's African Peace Facility to support a possible AU peace-keeping operation in Somalia. END NOTE.) ¶4. (C) Michel said that President Yusuf had also highlighted the problem of how to address restitution for land taken by Hawiye/Habr-Gedir/Ayr sub-clan members from "mostly Yusuf constituents." (NOTE: A likely reference to Darod and Rahanweyne supporters of the TFG. END NOTE.) According to Michel, TFG President Yusuf had proposed a restitution commission, whereas Ethiopian PM Meles had advised the EU to provide compensation, in lieu of restitution. Michel noted Yusuf's opposition to providing compensation, but suggested that it could be addressed. Continued disagreement on how to resolve this issue could be "a potential negative," Michel added. ¶5. (C) A/S Frazer responded that she hoped the EU would release funds for Somalia and deployment of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) sooner, rather than later. She noted ongoing political efforts to reach out to both the Hawiye/Habr- Gedir/Ayr sub-clan and other groups, and urged that the EU not hold AMISOM hostage to efforts by the TFG. -------------- SUDAN'S PRESIDENT BASHIR NEEDS "GUARANTEES" -------------- ADDIS ABAB 00000326 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Discussing his recent meeting with President Bashir, Michel said Bashir had recounted "a long history of frustrations." Bashir had said that while he had taken risks and "delivered" on accepting the May 2006 Darfur Peace Agreement, the international community had not, by failing to pressure non-signatory rebel groups. As a result, Michel said, Bashir's "goodwill doesn't go far." Michel said he had informed Bashir of Sudanese attacks on humanitarian groups in Darfur, and the resulting withdrawal of some NGOs from Darfur, but that Bashir simply "denied this reality." ¶7. (C) Bashir would remain "reluctant" to support progress in Darfur, and would continue to exhibit "bad will," Michel said, unless "substantial guarantees" were made to him. Michel underscored Bashir's negative outlook on Darfur. (NOTE: Michel observed that he had met Bashir on January 29, immediately after AU Summit participants had rejected Bashir's candidacy for AU Assembly Chairman in favor of Ghanaian President Kufuor. END NOTE.) Michel appealed for the international community to be "open" on substantive elements, otherwise Bashir would exert "negative influence" throughout the region, and in areas such as Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Such guarantees could include stronger international pressure on DPA non-signatories, and lifting the commercial embargo on Sudan, Michel said. Bashir also feared international prosecution, he added. ¶8. (C) A/S Frazer responded that Bashir had been given explicit guarantees "across all those elements"--including normalization of diplomatic relations by raising charge to ambassadorial representation, and an offer to meet President Bush on the margins of the UN General Assembly--but that continued killings in Darfur had frustrated better relations. Bashir was in denial about the crisis in Darfur, she added; Bashir was engaging in a military build-up and had bombed the site where SLM commanders were to meet just prior to a planned peace conference. Frazer highlighted the USG view that it was necessary to continue pushing Bashir: in order to implement the November 2006 Addis Ababa agreement on establishing a hybrid UN-AU force in Darfur; to achieve better cooperation with the UN and the AU; and to implement the UN SYG's three-phase approach (on establishing a hybrid force) simultaneously, rather than wait for the sequential implementation of light and heavy support packages to enable AU Mission in Sudan (AMIS) forces. UNSCR 1706 did not require Government of Sudan consent to establish a UN peacekeeping force, Frazer noted, but, pragmatically, lack of consent impeded implementation. African Union leaders were frustrated with Bashir's intransigence, Frazer concluded. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: A/S Frazer's bilateral meetings with other European leaders on the margins of the AU Summit (septel) underscored that Commissioner Louis Michel is increasingly becoming isolated in his insistence on conditionality for the release of EU funds to support AMISOM. Separately, British Embassy officials confirmed on the margins of the AU Summit that the UK had decided to contribute 4 million pounds to the AU to support AMISOM; AU Commission Conflict Management head El-Ghassim Wane reported that the AU now had USD 40 million in financial support for AMISOM. The issue of whether to provide compensation or restitution to Somalis who have had land confiscated by the Ayr sub-clan, the chief supporters of the ousted Council of Islamic Courts, was discussed at length by Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles in his separate meeting with A/S Frazer (reftel). Michel's remarks do not suggest that the EU is considering providing additional funds to meet this request, although both Ethiopia and Somalia's TFG highlight it as a major issue that must be addressed in order promote political reconciliation with the Ayr. END COMMENT. ¶10. (U) A/S Frazer cleared this cable YAMAMOTO