ETHIOPIA/ERITREA: "A SENSITIVE AND DANGEROUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003197 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2027 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PINR PHUM SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA/ERITREA: "A SENSITIVE AND DANGEROUS TIME," TIGRAY PRESIDENT TSEGAY CAUTIONS REF: IIR 6 830 0023 08 Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Ethiopia faces a "sensitive and dangerous time" with Eritrea, Tigray Regional President Tsegay Berhe told Ethiopia Desk Officer John Wysham, Deputy Political Counselor and Political Assistant (collectively, PolOffs) on October 24 in Mekele. Tsegay affirmed that Ethiopia will not attack Eritrea unless provoked, but confirmed that if war resumes, Ethiopia will seek regime change in Eritrea. Eritrean President Isaias grows politically weaker by the day and the Eritrean army is demoralized, according to Tsegay. Should Ethiopia be forced to topple Isaias, Tsegay SIPDIS said, Ethiopia believes that Eritrea will not/not devolve into chaos a la Somalia and that the international community would step in to manage the rebuilding of Eritrea. On October 24, all was quiet in Zela Ambessa. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On October 24-25, Ethiopia Desk Officer John Wysham, Deputy Political Counselor and Political Assistant (collectively, PolOffs) traveled to Mekele, Adigrat and Zela Ambessa (on the border with Eritrea) to assess conditions in light of recent Eritrean posturing over the Ethiopia-Eritrea boundary dispute. In Mekele, PolOffs met with Tigray Regional President Tsegay Berhe, a Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) Executive Committee member. In Adigrat, PolOffs met with the Adigrat Mayor Mesfin Amare and the East Tigray Deputy Zone Administrator Tadele Asseta, who escorted PolOffs to Zela Ambessa and facilitated a town-hall with Zela Ambessa elders. A Sensitive and Dangerous Time -------------- ¶3. (C) On October 24, Tigray Regional President Tsegay reiterated to PolOffs the standard GoE position that Ethiopia accepts the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission's (EEBC's) "bad" decision without preconditions and remains committed to the Algiers Agreements even though Eritrea has violated the Algiers Agreements by moving military units and equipment into the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ). Characterizing Eritrean President Isaias as unpredictable, Tsegay SIPDIS cautioned "this is a very sensitive and dangerous time." Tsagay underscored that the GoE does not want to see the SIPDIS Ethiopia-Eritrea war resume and added that Ethiopia "is prohibited by justice from attacking." However, Tsegay expressed great confidence that Ethiopia would win any renewed conflict with Eritrea expeditiously. If the war does restart, Tsegay said that Ethiopia would be able to mobilize several hundred thousand men, including militia, in a matter of days. Moreover, if attacked, Tsegay intimated that Ethiopia will seek regime change in Eritrea, stressing that "If it starts, we want to conclude it once and for all. We don't want to do this again and again." Tsegay: Isaias Grows Weaker By The Day SIPDIS -------------- ¶4. (C) Tsegay said Ethiopia assessed that politically Isaias grows "weaker by the day." According to Tsegay, "Isaias wants to declare war, but the Eritrean army is demoralized and suffering from daily defections. Around 10-15 Eritrean soldiers and civilians cross the border into Ethiopia every day. Eritrea has imposed a curfew and (summarily) executes defectors." Tsegay said that on October 21 three Eritrean clergymen had crossed into Ethiopia to avoid conscription, which Tsegay took as a sign of Isaias' desperation. Separately, East Tigray Deputy Zone Administrator Tadele said that 370 Eritrean defectors had crossed into the East Tigray Zone since July, 2007, and the rate is increasing. The International Community Will Help... -------------- ¶5. (C) "There will be no chaos in Eritrea after Isaias, Tsegay said flatly, adding that "the Eritreans have great SIPDIS experience managing themselves and it will not be like Mogadishu. The culture is different." As for Ethiopia's vision for a post-Isaias Eritrea, Tsegay said Ethiopia expects that the international community will help Eritrea build a democratic, federal government and assist the Eritreans in drafting a constitution that "accommodates differences" within Eritrea. "The Eritreans are very ADDIS ABAB 00003197 002 OF 002 nationalistic and don't want a weak country," Tsegay said by way of explaining his view that once Isaias is removed, Eritrea will likely stabilize and relations with Ethiopia will be normalized. Ethiopian Soldiers On the Move -------------- ¶6. (C) On October 24, all was quiet in Zela Ambessa. Only several Ethiopian soldiers guarded the border and no military armor, artillery or heavy equipment was visible. Between Zela Ambessa and Mekele, PolOffs also saw uniformed military personnel in every town of note, but none of them were noticeably on alert. On their return from Zela Ambessa to Mekele, PolOffs observed thirty-three sixty-seat country buses filled with Ethiopian soldiers moving north from Mekele toward Adigrat. Earlier, Tsegay had told PolOffs that no Ethiopian units were moving toward the border because Ethiopia already had sufficient troops in place to repel any Eritrean aggression. On October 25, PolOffs spotted General Samora Yonus, Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Armed Forces, together with six prominent Tigrayan-speaking ENDF generals, at Hotel Axum in Mekele. Hotel staff noted that the presence of so many senior military officials at the hotel is unprecedented. YAMAMOTO