ETHIOPIA ON SOMALIA: GEDI SHOULD GO AND TFG SHOULD

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003153 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV SO ET SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA ON SOMALIA: GEDI SHOULD GO AND TFG SHOULD FOCUS ON GOVERNING Classified By: Political/Economic Chief Michael Gonzales. Reasons 1.4 ( B) and (D) ¶1. (S) Summary. In an October 18 meeting State Minister for Foreign Affairs Tekeda Alemu told Charge that Ethiopia was delivering a very frank and tough message to visiting Somali Prime Minister Gedi, but due to Gedi's support against terrorism could not overtly press him to stand down. While the Ethiopian Government (GoE) recognizes that Gedi should leave, if he chooses not to wins a vote of confidence from the Somali transitional parliament, Ethiopia and the international community must accept it. Regardless of the leadership, Tekeda stressed that the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) must move beyond personal politics and get on with governing and Ethiopia is prepared to become substantively engaged in pressing for forward movement in that area. End Summary. Delicate Issue, but GoE Prefers if Gedi Leaves -------------- - ¶2. (S) Prime Minister Meles and Dr. Tekeda met with Gedi for over three hours during the evening of October 17 and Foreign Minister Seyoum was actively meeting with Gedi while Charge met with Tekeda. Tekeda noted that in light of Gedi's support for counter-terrorist and counter-extremist activities, it is difficult for the GoE to urge Gedi to resign. Since the GoE recognizes that the TFG cannot go on with both Yusuf and Gedi, Seyoum was being &brutally frank8 expressing the GoE's concerns to Gedi. Tekeda noted that the GoE would prefer if Gedi resigned and made a magnanimous statement, but barring that, the GoE would prefer if the TFG Parliament voted Gedi out of office. He argued that it is not clear if Gedi is ready to leave, but believes that the GoE would know in the coming days whether Gedi is willing to take the gentleman's way out. Tekeda claimed that over the course of the October 17 discussions it was clear that &Gedi was climbing down.8 If he does not, and Parliament votes to keep him on, Tekeda stressed that Ethiopia would have to "swallow a bitter pill8 and respect that decision, but engage the TFG to substantively alter the way they have been operating. Tekeda noted that GoE information suggests that Gedi does not have sufficient votes to survive a vote of confidence. Where Should Gedi Go? 
 -------------- ¶3. (S) Tekeda argued that the GoE would be "happy" to have Gedi stay in Addis, but would also have no problem if he were to go to the U.S. or elsewhere. He was clear that it would be best if Gedi did not/not stay in Somalia. Ethiopia's concern is that Gedi be treated well, lest his ill-treatment deter other problematic leaders in the future from standing down. Tekeda argued that if Gedi were planning to run in the 2009 elections, it would not make sense for him to be outside of the region. (Tekeda noted that Gedi would have poor chances of winning election in 2009.) Tekeda agreed that however, or wherever, Gedi goes, it is critical that he do so magnanimously and not undermine the TFG or support the Asmara group or others. Tekeda does not believe that Gedi would be antagonistic, but stressed that Gedi loves money and the opposition groups could come up with enough to attract him if there is no adequate alternative. While the GoE is adamant that Somali President Yusuf would never turn to support the &Islamist8 opposition, it is less confident about Gedi. Gedi's Replacement -------------- ¶4. (S) The GoE has no individuals in mind for a replacement for Gedi, but stressed that whomever is ultimately selected must be a Hawiye (preferably an Abgal),must be completely independent of Yusuf, and must have credibility with the ADDIS ABAB 00003153 002 OF 002 Hawiye community. He said that the USG "has a funny idea" about a possible candidate (presumably a reference to Ali Mahdi),but that "won't work." Tekeda did not give further details about why, but he did stress that the individual is a friend of the GoE. The new Prime Minister must have the necessary capacity and integrity, and be ready to embrace other clans. Phase Two Needed -------------- ¶5. (S) While dealing with the Yusuf-Gedi split and tensions is key and &Phase One,8 Tekeda stressed the need for close and intense discussions on how to alter how the TFG has been operating ) "Phase Two." He cited the management and operations of the Office of the President and Office of the Prime Minister as well as diversion of money to support political backing rather than to govern. He noted that the TFG had had 16,000 troops, but now has only 7,000 troops because Yusuf is giving money to MPs for their support instead of paying the soldiers. He noted that Ethiopia cannot want success in Somalia more than the Somalis themselves, asking why Ethiopian troops should die if the people directly concerned are not willing to discharge their responsibilities and the international community is not adequately and substantively engaged. Tekeda argued that: 1) we must do whatever possible for the TFIs to function and to strengthen them, 2) Yusuf must &shape up,8 3) those who are around Yusuf who are not being helpful must leave, 4) we must build institutions in Somalia, and 5) the TFG must share some of the responsibility. Tekeda suggested that senior GoE officials will be consulting soon among themselves, and with Yusuf, to establish a clear road map for Somalia. While the GoE has maintained a &laid back8 approach with the TFG until now, it must have a much more active say in how Somali political developments are handled from now forward. Tekeda stressed that Ethiopia and the US must work closely together on Phase Two. YAMAMOTO