ERITREAN OPPOSITION LEADER SAYS NOT READY TO RULE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003101 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/E, AND INR/AA LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2017 TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER SU SUBJECT: ERITREAN OPPOSITION LEADER SAYS NOT READY TO RULE REF: ADDIS ABABA 03016 Classified By: Political/Economic Chief Michael Gonzales for Reason 1.4 (b) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On October 18 PolOff met with Chairman of the Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA) Bloc-1 Menghesteab Asmerom to discuss the state of the Eritrean political opposition. Menghesteab is also a member of the Eritrean Liberation Front-Revolutionary Council (ELF-RC) and serves as its head of information and chief representative in Ethiopia. He explained that the Eritrean opposition was divided by differences over the role of religion and ethnic identity in a future Eritrean government. He stressed his group was trying to reconcile the two EDA blocs and that the bloc leaderships would be meeting in late October to discuss their differences. He said Bloc-1 military forces were used primarily to spread propaganda inside Eritrea rather than fight and that his group received only limited support from the Ethiopian government. Menghesteab admitted that the Eritrean opposition was unprepared to assume power in Eritrea and asserted that if Isaias were to fall now, Eritrea would descend into chaos because no one would be able to maintain control. Lastly, he did not think Eritrean President Isaias would initiate war with Ethiopia because Isaias knew he could not win and Menghesteab did not believe the Eritrean army would support the war. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- EDA DIVIDED BY LEADERSHIP, RELIGION, AND ETHNIC IDENTITY -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Menghesteab began by explaining that the Eritrean opposition groups were primarily divided by long-standing differences over the role of religion and ethnic identity in a future Eritrean government, but that the two blocs were officially formed during the February 2007 EDA congress when the groups could not agree on who to elect as EDA chairman. He said Bloc-1 was a grouping of the three largest secular groups including his own Eritrean Liberation Front-Revolutionary Council (ELF-RC),the Eritrean National Salvation Front (ENSF),and the Eritrean Democratic Party (EDP). He asserted Bloc-1 was the most inclusive and enjoyed the most support from the Eritrean diaspora and from within Eritrea. Menghesteab emphasized there were no real political divisions between the Bloc-1 groups and he hoped the three groups would join together as a single party in the future. ¶3. (C) Bloc-2 was a grouping of seven smaller parties including several Islamic and ethnically based factions. EDA Bloc-2 was composed of the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF), the Democratic Movement for the Liberation of Eritrean Kunama (DMLEK),the Democratic Organization of the Red Sea Afar (DORSA),Eritrean Federal Democratic Movement (EFDM), Eritrean Islamic Party for Justice and Development (EIJCDP), Eritrean People's Congress (EPC),and the Eritrean People's Democratic Front (EPDF). -------------- EDA BLOCS TAKING FIRST STEPS TO RECONCILE -------------- ¶4. (C) Menghesteab stressed his group's goal was to see the EDA reformed as a united umbrella organization for all Eritrean opposition parties. The goal of the EDA was to unite all Eritrean opposition for the purpose of replacing President Isaias. Once Isaias was gone, each of the EDA parties would then compete with each other in free and fair elections in a new government. He added that in early October the leadership of each bloc exchanged notes agreeing to meet in late October to discuss possible reconciliation. He noted that as of yet the blocs had no specific plans to hold a new opposition congress, but he said the issue would be a topic of discussion for the upcoming leadership talks in Addis Ababa. -------------- -------------- BLOC-1 MILITARY FORCES USED FOR PROPAGANDA, NOT FIGHTING -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) The ELF-RC military forces were small, operated in conjunction with ENSF forces (Reftel),and were used to ADDIS ABAB 00003101 002 OF 003 spread EDA information inside Eritrea rather than to fight the Eritrean military, according to Menghesteab. EDP, the third Bloc-1 group, did not have military forces because they believed in employing only peaceful means against the Isaias government. ¶6. (C) Menghesteab confirmed ENSF information (Reftel) that the EDA operated out of military camps in Ethiopia after Khartoum closed the Eritrean opposition training camps in Sudan. He noted the EDA could keep their offices in Sudan, and they could hold meetings inside those offices, but they could not conduct any other outside activities like holding public meetings or rallies. He added Sudan was becoming more risky for the Eritrean opposition because the Eritrean government had more freedom to conduct intelligence operations against them in the country. -------------- ETHIOPIA PROVIDES ONLY LIMITED SUPPORT -------------- ¶7. (C) Menghesteab asserted his bloc did not receive monetary support from the Ethiopian government, but they do meet with government officials who allow the opposition to operate politically and militarily within Ethiopia. He said the Sanaa Group--Ethiopia, Sudan, and Yemen--financially supported a radio station in Ethiopia that the EDA used to broadcast information into Eritrea. He also commented that the Ethiopian government favors the ethnically based parties in Bloc-2 because those parties' platforms more closely resembled Ethiopia's ethnic federalism. -------------- ELF-RC TO BECOME A NEW PARTY -------------- ¶8. (C) The ELF-RC, a splinter group from the original ELF, was planning to hold its own congress in 2008 to convert from a council to a new political party. Menghesteab said any Eritrean would be able to attend the congress and participate in the new party's formation. The name of the new party would be determined during the conference. -------------- ERITREAN OPPOSITION NOT READY TO RULE -------------- ¶9. (C) Menghesteab admitted that the Eritrean opposition was not yet capable of governing Eritrea in a post-Isaias environment. He said if Isaias were to be overthrown now, Eritrea would fall into chaos because the army would factionalize and different groups in the country would fight each other for power. For example, the Islamic groups would insist on shari'a while the Kunama and Afar groups would insist on political autonomy including the possibility of secession. He emphasized that no person in the current government would be able to maintain control and that foreign troops would be needed to restore order. -------------- ISAIAS WILL NOT START WAR WITH ETHIOPIA -------------- ¶10. (C) When queried whether Eritrea would start a war with Ethiopia, Menghesteab responded that Isaias knows he cannot defeat Ethiopia and would not initiate conflict. He further asserted that the rank and file of the Eritrean army would not fight to defend a government they did not support. He said most Eritrean soldiers are in uniform against their will and have been forced to serve for too long. Nevertheless, Menghesteab stressed that no Eritrean would ever submit to a lengthy Ethiopian occupation of Eritrea, Eritrean nationalism was too strong. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Post will continue to monitor the Eritrean opposition's progress towards reconciliation, however, it is clear that the EDA, long beset by internal divisions, is not close to being capable of fielding the type of opposition ADDIS ABAB 00003101 003 OF 003 that could remove Isaias or assume power in a post-Isaias power vacuum. Menghesteab may be downplaying the level of support his group receives from the Ethiopian government, but the group appears to have limited resources and his comments suggest their primary source of support is the Eritrean diaspora. Menghisteab was a member of the original ELF formed in the 1960s, but was forced to flee Ethiopia in 1981 when the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front and the Eritrean People's Liberation Front joined forces to expel the ELF. END COMMENT. YAMAMOTO