SOMALIA: PUNTLAND PRESIDENT ON ELECTIONS, THE TFG,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003059 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/E, AND INR/AA LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2017 TAGS: PREL MOPS SO ET SUBJECT: SOMALIA: PUNTLAND PRESIDENT ON ELECTIONS, THE TFG, AND SOMALILAND Classified By: Political/Economic Chief Michael C. Gonzales for Reason 1.4 (b) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On October 4 Ambassador, PolCouns, and PolOff met with Puntland President Mohamed Muse Hersi Adde and Ministry of Fisheries, Ports, Transport and Marine Resources Said Mohamed Rage to discuss events in Somalia. Adde was accompanied by his son Mohamed and First Secretary Mahad Farah Gas. The President noted that his government had considerable work to do to prepare for Puntland's upcoming elections, but that the work would get done. Adde expressed his emphatic support for the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the process laid out by the Charter, but admitted that Prime Minister Ghedi should be replaced. He argued that the coming elections in Somaliland were exacerbating tensions between Somaliland and Puntland as both ruling and opposition parties were trying to gain support by showing a strong hand against Puntland. His own support for the TFG further contributes to these tensions. Adde expressed faith that the Ethiopians, particularly Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum, would take action to ensure the conflict between Puntland and Somaliland did not get out of control. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY CONTINUED. The President stressed that his government's support for the TFG was also making Puntland a target of Eritrean-supported extremists and he accused individuals within both Somaliland and Djibouti of helping the extremists move and operate. Adde encouraged Washington to support Puntland and Somaliland as a way to eventually bring stability to the south. The President affirmed he would continue to work with Washington and he hoped Washington would increase development aid to Puntland. At Post's request, Adde agreed to press the Ethiopian Government to re-open commercial trade routes between Puntland and Ethiopia's Somali region to provide much needed food and supplies to the Ogaden. END SUMMARY. -------------- WORK NEEDED TO PREPARE FOR ELECTIONS -------------- ¶3. (C) Adde opened the meeting by explaining that his government had much work to do to prepare for the upcoming elections. He noted his government needed to disarm violent elements, conduct a census, work on the multi-party system, hold a referendum on the constitution, and elect an electoral commission. When queried on the likelihood of his re-election, he responded that he did not know, but, "if I lose, I will retire to the countryside." -------------- WE SUPPORT THE TFG, BUT GHEDI SHOULD GO -------------- ¶4. (C) Adde said that Puntland supported the TFG, highlighting the fact that more than 300 delegates from Puntland attended the National Reconciliation Conference (NRC) in Mogadishu. The President underscored that Puntland was part of Somalia and one-day would be part of a federal Somali system of government. He added that the biggest problem between Puntland and the TFG was a dispute over the sharing of natural resources. He noted that the TFG wanted to divide Puntland's oil with 20 percent of revenues going to Puntland and 80 percent to the federal government, but asserted his government should receive the greater share. ¶5. (C) The President explained that he had attempted to heal the growing animosity between TFG President Yusuf and Prime Minister Ghedi during the NRC and that he would attempt to meet with both in the coming weeks. When asked for his opinion of the Prime Minister, Adde responded that Ghedi was disruptive to the success of the TFG and should be replaced. He stressed that the continued tensions between the PM and President was unsustainable and Ghedi must go. Adde suggested that Ghedi be offered the deputy prime ministership or another ministry. Alternatively, he opined that Ghedi could be offered the Presidency in a few years when the TFG was more stable. -------------- PROBLEMS WITH SOMALILAND PERSIST ADDIS ABAB 00003059 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶6. (C) Adde emphasized that his government's support for the TFG was exacerbating the problems between Puntland and Somaliland. He said the political atmosphere in Somaliland leading up to the Somaliland elections was further fueling the upsurge in tensions. The ruling and opposition parties in Somaliland were attempting to demonstrate their independence from the rest of Somalia and had been demonizing Adde and his parliament in order to gain support at home. The ruling party also wants to show it is capable of defending Somaliland. Adde expected that after the Somaliland elections the tensions and clashes between the two governments would relax. ¶7. (C) On the recent fighting between Puntland and Somaliland, Adde stressed he was in regular contact with Somaliland officials to keep the situation under control. He argued that members of the business community in Somaliland were allying themselves with outside extremists to destabilize the region. He stressed that the tensions would not grow out of control and underscored that Ethiopia "would do something" to resolve the crisis. The President revealed that Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum would travel to Somalia when he returned from New York. -------------- EXTREMISTS TARGETING PUNTLAND -------------- ¶8. (C) The President stressed his government's support for the TFG had made Puntland a target for Islamic extremists. According to Adde, these extremists with the backing of Eritrea were now threatening nine years of peace and stability in northeastern Somalia. He also emphasized that because many former Islamic Courts officials and affiliated extremists are from Somaliland and have ties to politically powerful Somalilanders, the Somaliland government was unwilling and unable to prevent disruptive elements from moving in and out of Somaliland territory. The President repeatedly accused Eritrea of supporting these extremists and he claimed to have a list of extremists operating in Northern Somalia that matched Ethiopia's list of Asmara-based extremists. Adde accused Djibouti President Guelleh of helping the extremists move through Somaliland and into Puntland, although Adde underscored that relations with Djibouti were "good." -------------- LOOK NORTH TO STABILIZE SOMALIA -------------- ¶9. (C) Adde observed that the international community had devoted significant resources to stabilize Mogadishu and the TFG, but that to date it had produced little progress. Adde asserted the international community should consider shifting its support from southern Somalia to the more stable Puntland and Somaliland. Bolstering these two democracies--in particular the security forces, efforts at multi-party democracy, and development--could spread stability to the south rather than hope that the TFG spreads security northward. He underscored the current situation was not working. -------------- COMMITTED TO WORK WITH WASHINGTON -------------- ¶10. (C) The President affirmed he would continue to work with Washington, but noted his support had caused him many problems and made enemies. Adde hoped for greater intelligence sharing, construction of training facilities, and a significant increase in development aid. He said without these tools, Puntland would be hard pressed to develop and help stabilize the rest of Somalia. He added Puntland was looking to develop the port of Bossaso and that Italian and Greek companies were assessing the port including the possibility of dredging the harbor. When the Ambassador asked what the Ethiopians were doing to help develop Puntland, Adde responded that the Ethiopians were struggling with how to deal with Puntland without offending the TFG. ADDIS ABAB 00003059 003 OF 003 -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Adde had just returned from a month in Germany where he received a kidney transplant (right side) and walked feebly with a cane obviously still recovering from the surgery. He was waiting in Addis Ababa to talk to Foreign Minister Seyoum before returning to Puntland. President Adde downplayed the severity of the crisis between Puntland and Somaliland and avoided discussing the specifics of the fighting, although he repeatedly commented that he needed to return to Puntland and deal with the problems. He made every attempt to stick to his message that Puntland deserves support from the United States and the international community because Puntland is an active partner helping to fight Islamic extremists in the region and could help stabilize Somalia. END COMMENT. MALAC