ETHIOPIA: FLOOD WARNING - PREPARING FOR THE WORSE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002265 SIPDIS AIDAC SIPDIS USAID/DCHA FOR M.HESS, G.GOTTLIEB DCHA/OFDA FOR K.LUU, A.FERRARA, A.CONVERY, K.CHANNELL DCHA/FFP FOR W.HAMMINK, J.DWORKEN AFR/AFR/EA FOR B.DUNFORD STATE FOR AF/E, AF/F AND PRM CJTF HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD USUN FOR T.MALY USEU BRUSSELS FOR P.LERNER USMISSION GENEVA FOR N.KYLOH USMISSION UN ROME FOR R.NEWBERG E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF MASS ET SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: FLOOD WARNING - PREPARING FOR THE WORSE ¶1. SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST for AF Bureau, USAID-OFDA, DCHA and DOD/OSD: Early warning for the Horn of Africa forecasts heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, great or greater than last year's, during the July-Sept "kiremt" season with serious floods likely, especially in major river basins (Omo, Shabelle, Tana, Gambella.) The omo is already experiencing flooding. The GOE is taking actions to clear and provide early-warning in flood plains and to manage reservoir levels; however, its response capabilities are limited. Last year, the GOE requested emergency assistance for flood relief, and we expect similar requests this year. The USG response last year--with tents, supplies and airlift--was highly effective and lauded in local media. While OFDA and CJTF-HOA are already initiating action, to avoid any delays in this year's response, Post formally requests the pre-positioning by USAID and DOD of emergency response equipment (like small boats and tents) and relief supplies (such as blankets and water). It also requests pre-approval by State and DOD of CJTF-HOA military airlift capability as available. END SUMMARY. ¶2. NOTE: The EmbQy is already working with CJTF-HOA to preposition tents, small boats, and water purification equipment in Addis Ababa to meet anticipated problems from flooding. Airlift pre-approval by Washington will enable Post to respond quickly once there is flooding. We wish to avoid the delays of last year. END NOTE. -------------- BACKGROUND -------------- ¶3. Major floods in 2006 in Ethiopia caused over 1,000 deaths, especially in the Dire Dawa area in the east, the Wabe Shebelle in Somali region near the Somalia border, and the south Omo area. Early warning data indicate that the flooding situation could be worse in 2007. Apart from forecasts of heavier rain in the highlands, which feeds the river systems, the level of water in the major dams on these rivers is higher than in 2006, and projected to go even higher. There has been one serious flood already, on July 9-10 on the Weito (or Wotio) River in south Omo, with 4,000 pastoralists marooned by the rising river on an island, who needed rescue by boats. The main flooding did not affect the south Omo area until mid-August in 2006, indicating that flooding may be earlier and more serious in 2007. ¶4. Other flood-prone areas are also being monitored, including: Gambella, the Lake Tana area, Humera in the northeast, and the Awash River in the east. ¶5. Preparedness has improved in Ethiopia in several ways, but still remains weak. The flood task force has been operating for the last year, and produced an alert on July 2nd based on the impact on flood-prone areas of rainfall predictions and levels of water in dams. Despite improved water flow management at dams, they could still be overwhelmed by heavy rains. ¶6. The 2006 floods demonstrated the lack of early warning and preparedness, leading to the loss of many lives. A flood early warning system has now been put in place in Dire Dawa (where more than 300 people died in the 2006 flood) run by local government and the military to warn city residents when the water is rising upriver. Similar systems are planned for other areas, but remoteness and dispersion of populations will make this difficult to implement. ¶7. The USG was praised for the flood response in 2006, albeit delayed, which included supplies and erection of a tent city in Dire Dawa through DOD/USAID collaboration, and an airlift of needed supplies to Gode forQe flood-affected in southern Somali Region. This was followed up with NGO partners involved in health, shelter, and food support for flood-affected, and the construction of new homes for many of the victims in Dire Dawa. ¶8. Needs for the 2006 flood response give a good idea of the preparedness needed. Large tents were much appreciated, and airlift ADDIS ABAB 00002265 002 OF 002 support essential. In south Omo, the urgent need was for boats--preferably, shallow draft large-capacity motorized rubber boats--to rescue people trapped on islands by rising flood waters and/or to deliver supplies. The USG was unable to respond to this last-minute request in 2006. In all areas, emergency shelter, medical care, and food were all needed for the displaced. Although the response on this was much better, early State-DOD agreements could have made the response much quicker and more effective. -------------- PREPAREDNESS TO DATE -------------- ¶9. The various agencies of the USG in Ethiopia are working on preparedness. Coordination has been occurring with the Ethiopian government and other donors through the flood task force. ¶10. USAID has begun to explore access to the needed supplies in a timely way: in particular, USAID/OFDA is purchasing motorized rubber boats. CJTF HOA is checking supplies available and preparing for a response. USAID/OFDA'S regional office has engaged quickly to determine the availability of needed supplies and has alerted its partners operational in high-risk zones to prepare for rapid response. ¶11. For south Omo, another complication is ongoing conflict between the ethnic groups in the area. Fear of conflict affected the ability of the Desenech people trapped on islands in 2006 to move to neighboring areas, and contributed to the loss of life. USAID partner PACT is working on conflict resolution with the Desenech and four other ethnic groups in the area, and has agreed to pass on the flood warning, as well as work with the affected groups, to prepare for movements of people without conflict. -------------- CONCLUSIONS -------------- ¶12. Preparation for likely floods in several parts of Ethiopia are only beginning, but indications are that flooding could be imminent and very serious. Coordination with the Government of Ethiopia and other donors has been initiated through the flood task force. ¶13. Full cooperation and support is needed for location and stockpiling of emergency goods as needed, especially tents and motorized rubber boats. Clearance of these materials to come into Ethiopia can be complicated, so these logistics need to be worked out as early as possible. ¶14. Existing stocks of food and non-food emergency goods in Ethiopia, supported by USAID through the GOE's Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Agency (DPPA),will need to be accessed on an emergency basis. There have been some logistical and/or bureaucratic problems with accessing the non-food supplies, which will need to contended with as much as possible in advance to prevent delays. ¶15. USAID NGO partners[0] operational in vulnerable zones need to be coordinated and activated to prepare for the response. This has been set in motion. ¶16. Most importantly, pre-aproval by State and DOD for airlift with CJTF-HOA assets, as available, would be most useful. YAMAMOTO