ETHIOPIA: OPPOSITION LEADERS EXPRESS FRUSTRATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001166 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND DRL LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PGOV PHUM KDEM ET SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: OPPOSITION LEADERS EXPRESS FRUSTRATION FOLLOWING PM'S PARLIAMENTARY ADDRESS REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 00978 ¶B. ADDIS ABABA 00494 ADDIS ABAB 00001166 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In a meeting with opposition parliamentary leaders, Ambassador explained planned USG Title 1 food assistance to help relieve economic strain on urban poor and solicited leaders' views on political openness outside Addis Ababa. Ambassador noted that the food would be used to complement recently announced GoE emergency action plans aimed at quelling rising inflation in food prices, though USG aid would not in itself affect market prices. Leaders had mixed reactions, though much of this is likely from being poorly informed on GoE decisions. In describing the political environment in their individual constituencies, they were typically downbeat, stating that the democratization process has stalled. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) On April 3, Ambassador and Poloff (notetaker) met with opposition parliamentary leaders: Lidetu Ayalew, United Ethiopian Democratic Party ) Medhin (UEDP-Medhin); Dr. Merera Gudina and Beyene Petros, United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF); Bulcha Dimeksa, Oromo Federal Democratic Movement; Temesgen Zewdie, Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP); and independent (and former President of Ethiopia) Negasso Gidada. -------------- -- PM OUTLINES PLAN FOR FOOD AID, OPPOSITION MIXED -------------- -- ¶3. (SBU) In his March 29, six-month report to Parliament (ref A),one of the key themes PM Meles addressed was emergency food aid aimed at quelling rising food prices in urban centers. He noted that rising food prices account for half of the country's 16.6 percent (last six months, annualized) inflation rate. As inflation is affecting urban dwellers more than the rural, primarily (subsistence) agricultural-based population, the PM said that the GoE's program of emergency food distribution would be focused on larger cities. He announced a plan to tap the country's wheat reserves for the infusion of emergency food, which would be distributed in 25 kilogram bags to the most needy, starting in Addis Ababa, followed by other cities. This would be done every 4 to 6 weeks, until prices stabilize and farmers cease hoarding their crops, which the PM asserts is a major cause of the inflation. ¶4. (SBU) The PM's plan was met with some skepticism. In a subsequent private meeting with leaders, Ambassador noted that the USG plans to supply Ethiopia with Title 1 food assistance (ref B),which would complement the PM's plan. (NOTE: USG emergency food assistance was not mentioned in the PM,s speech. END NOTE) The Ambassador stressed that USG assistance would not be in quantities large enough to alter market prices, but nonetheless, public perception of this help must be considered. ¶5. (SBU) Reaction by opposition leaders was mixed, with some supporting the plan of food distribution and USG assistance, but others strongly opposed. Bulcha stated that he and the OFDM have no opposition, but noted that, as a former economist, he feels that a price stabilization fund would be more effective in the long run. Beyene also voiced support, but expressed concern whether the food would ultimately be distributed equitably. He said that in his constituency, aid given under the Safety Net program largely is distributed to ruling party supporters first, with the remainder then going to opposition. Though food aid from the U.S. is generally welcome, Lidetu said, the GoE's plan is "the wrong strategy," and rising prices of inputs for farmers will squeeze them as grain prices decrease. Temesgen, much more fiery than usual, echoed this concern, saying, "The PM,s hoarding excuse is not true. We need to expose structural weaknesses in the market instead," he commented. Ex-President Negasso labeled the plan a "war against the farmers," also noting the rising price of farm inputs such as fertilizer. "U.S. subsidized farm goods would be directly harming Ethiopian farmers," he continued, saying that the program should be viewed as interference in the market. -------------- ADDIS ABAB 00001166 002.2 OF 002 LEADERS BEMOAN POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Questioned about the current state of political openness for opposition parties outside of Addis Ababa, most leaders were typically downbeat about the state of affairs for their party. Temesgen, in his heated tone of the day, said that "people are simply afraid" to talk about political matters and that his constituents are not happy. Furthermore, he noted the general disappointment with the trajectory of political space for opposition parties, saying that at this stage in Ethiopian democracy, opposition parties "have to be able to stand on their own feet," but instead are feeling ineffective and marginalized. Lidetu echoed Temesgen's frustration, saying that from his observation people are growing increasingly bitter about prospects of political reform. Unless the ruling EPRDF party makes significant efforts to allow the opposition to operate, "the process of democratization is in danger." Negasso, in an alarmist note, commented that the lack of general population's ability to speak out politically is creating an environment which would serve to foster religious extremism as a surrogate for political expression. Beyene, who is typically more tempered in his criticism, said that he was disappointed in the PM's address to Parliament in that it did not touch on the state of internal democratic issues, and felt that the PM was dismissive of the opposition's questions. "We have no interest in that place (Parliament), if our point of view is not taken seriously," Beyene said, a refrain he has made in recent months regarding perceived diminishing effectiveness for opposition in Parliament. -------------- - COMMENT: LACK OF INCLUSION LIKELY CAUSE OF IRE -------------- - ¶7. (SBU) In their meeting with the Ambassador, opposition party leaders expressed their increasing frustration stemming from their feelings of political marginalization. Though their specific concerns were generally varied and of differing degrees of dissatisfaction, they were unanimous in opinions that democratization is stalling, despite recent notable successes through the inter-party dialogue process. Opposition leaders often show greater discouragement in discussing GoE policies that they are ill-informed of, and decisions that have been made without opposition consultation. Their mixed reaction to Title 1 food assistance likely stems as much from lack of background knowledge as genuine disagreement. YAMAMOTO