ETHIOPIAN FOREIGN MINISTER CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001147 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF AND AF/E LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS ET SO SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN FOREIGN MINISTER CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ON TFG AND STABILITY IN MOGADISHU REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 1130 ¶B. ADDIS 1097 ¶C. ADDIS ABABA 1079 Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin briefed Ambassador April 13 on his personal protest to European Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid Louis Michel on a report leaked in Nairobi of the Commission's intent to investigate war crimes against Ethiopia and Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Seyoum expressed deep frustration with the EU's consistent outspokenness against Ethiopia's war in Somalia. The truce is still holding in Mogadishu, and Seyoum was hopeful that the Hawiye clan elders could isolate the extremists and force the al-Shabaab elements out of Mogadishu. Seyoum reported that 16 of 18 districts in Mogadishu were cooperating with the Ethiopian military (ENDF) with tough talks in the Ayr-held areas. Seyoum concluded that they have pressed the TFG on working with the clans to stabilize Mogadishu, but eventually the ENDF and TFG will need to take action against the last remnants of the militants, hopefully with the backing of all clan elders. ¶2. (S/NF) Ambassador discussed briefly the Foreign Minister's upcoming April 23 meeting with the Secretary, Africa Command brief, detention of suspected American foreign fighter Amir Mohamed Meshal, counterfeit U.S. dollars from North Korea, and Eritrea's threat to regional stability. END SUMMARY. -------------- WAR CRIMES: WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE? -------------- ¶3. (S/NF) Foreign Minister Seyoum, accompanied by acting MFA Director General for Europe and America Almaz Amha and the chief of staff, briefed Ambassador, who was unaccompanied, on his deep concern over a press leak in Nairobi by the European Commission that the Commission would launch an investigation into war crimes allegedly committed by the ENDF and TFG in Somalia. Seyoum said he personally had his Ambassador in Brussels protest to EC Commissioner Louis Michel. The Commission did not appraise Ethiopia of its intended action and has provided no evidence or reason for such an investigation. Seyoum was bitter in describing the Commission's outspoken anti-Ethiopia position on the war in Somalia. -------------- TRUCE HOLDS, HAWIYE TALKS POSITIVE, STILL HOPE FOR TFG; ERITREA IS A THREAT -------------- ¶4. (S/NF) The meeting with Seyoum was interrupted several times with phone calls from Mogadishu. The Foreign Minister, the point person on talks with the Hawiye, said discussions were positive and that the truce between the ENDF and the Somali clans was holding. The Hawiye were making positive moves in isolating extremists. Seyoum noted that the tough talks are with Hawiye/Habr-Gedir/Ayr and Suleiman sub-clans. Seyoum was confident that the extremists will be isolated and that the al-Shabaab elements will be forced to leave Mogadishu. Talks with the clan elders and isolating the extremists were critical to peace in Mogadishu and assuring the smooth conduct of the national reconciliation conference. ¶5. (S/NF) The Foreign Minister noted that 16 of 18 districts in Mogadishu are carefully coordinating with the ENDF. The Ayr remain the outsiders, not clearly disassociating themselves from support for the militants. Ethiopia has been reaching out to the Ayr and he was cautiously hopeful that there will be progress. Seyoum stated that Ethiopia was pressing the TFG to reach out to the clans and negotiate their support in isolating extremist elements. ¶6. (S/NF) Seyoum noted that once the extremists have been isolated and removed, hopefully, from Mogadishu, the ENDF and TFG will need to confront militarily these extremist ADDIS ABAB 00001147 002 OF 002 elements. Seyoum concluded by noting that Asmara hosting Ayr clan members to undercut peace talks in Mogadishu was a threat to peace and stability in Somalia, and a threat to the national interests of the U.S. and Europe in the Horn region. Seyoum also noted that there were arms flows from or through Eritrea to Somalia. -------------- OTHER BILATERAL ISSUES -------------- ¶7. (S/NF) The Foreign Minister was pleased with his upcoming meeting with Secretary Rice in Washington on April 23, and looked forward to meting Assistant Secretary Frazer, as well. The Foreign Minister may also call on members of Congress to discuss political reform in Ethiopia. The Foreign Minister was looking forward to a briefing on the new Africa Command by a visiting interagency team on April 19. The Foreign Ministry was particularly interested in where the Command would be permanently placed. Ambassador informed the Foreign Minister that the USG continued to discuss the American foreign fighter, Amir Mohamed Meshal, and that once these deliberations concluded; we would inform the GOE how we would handle the Meshal case (see ref A for details). Finally, the Ambassador raised money laundering/ counterfeiting of U.S. dollars by North Korea, underscoring that this was a priority issue for the U.S. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (S/NF) The Prime Minister in an earlier meeting with the Ambassador (ref B),and TFG Ambassador Farah as well (ref C), confirm the Foreign Minister's view that eventually there will be another round of fighting to eliminate the hard-core extremist remnants. Seyoum advocates talks with the clans for as long as possible to have the clans themselves isolate and expel extremist elements making a final military showdown between the ENDF and TFG against the extremists a more "manageable" conflict. ¶9. (S/NF) Although the EC is a major donor of humanitarian assistance to the GOE as well as to the Addis Ababa-based African Union Commission, there have been significant tensions between EC Commissioner Michel and GOE principals. In October 2006, the GOE declared two EC diplomats persona non grata for attempting to smuggle an Ethiopian employee at the EC out of the country, and immediately expelled them, which coincided with a visit by Commissioner Michel. Michel subsequently refused to appear at a joint press conference with GOE principals intended to announce EC support for road construction in Ethiopia. ¶10. (S/NF) Ethiopia had been a focal point for counterfeiting by North Korea of 100 dollar super notes until recently. While not the major counterfeiting point in Africa, Ethiopia's backward financial institutions need modernization and capacity building. Ethiopia remains vulnerable to counterfeiting. The Embassy is working with Treasury to sign an anti-money laundering program with Ethiopia at the end of April, and the Secret Service will conduct a training program this June. Modernizing the banking sector is a high priority for the Mission in meeting core objectives in economic development. END COMMENT. YAMAMOTO