THE NPP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION AND ELECTION 2008

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002587 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GH SUBJECT: THE NPP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION AND ELECTION 2008 REF: ACCRA 2477 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: As the December 22 New Patriotic Party (NPP) Convention moves closer, the debate has intensified, and rank and file supporters appear more disillusioned by ostentatious campaigns and exorbitant spending. Some party officials fear the NPP is losing touch with its base and privately worry that the NDC, lead by two time Presidential candidate, John Atta Mills, is quietly drumming up support in NPP strongholds. No frontrunner has emerged yet, but some insiders and pundits believe Kufuor is intervening to support former Trade Minister Alan Kyerematen as the NPP nominee. In turn, these efforts appear to be heightening divisions within the NPP after eight years in power, and these divisions threaten to carry over to the general election campaign in 2008. END SUMMARY. Internal party Challenges, a Stormy Test for Democracy -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Eighteen individuals from varying backgrounds and ethnicities are seeking the NPP nomination to be the next President of Ghana. As the December 22 Convention approaches, internal battles within the NPP have increased and the party is struggling to stay unified as it focuses on selecting one candidate for President who all factions of the NPP can support. ¶3. (U) The 18 presidential aspirants were recently vetted by the party and the final, official list of candidates was released on November 30 (reftel). One candidate, former Deputy Interior Minister Nkrabeah Effah-Dartey, was disqualified due to a 1981 court martial. ¶4. (SBU) Following the vetting process, each of the 230 NPP constituencies (corresponding to parliamentary constituencies) in Ghana has named 10 delegates to vote at the Convention. This list was released to the candidates on December 8, giving them time to personally lobby those individuals. The regional breakdown of the delegates is as follows: Ashanti 17%, Brong Ahafo 10%, Central 8%, Eastern 12%, Greater Accra 12%, Northern 10%, Volta 10%, Western 11% Upper East 6% and Upper West 4%. Ethnicity promises to be an important part of the selection process. Accusations all Around -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Allegations of misconduct have been prominent during the NPP nomination process, and corruption allegations will likely continue to play a large part in the general election. For example, former Finance Minister Yaw Osafo Maafo said in October that Alan Kyerematen was involved in shady lending deals with government money while in office. Kyerematen responded that he suspects, but cannot prove, that Osafo Maafo benefited from under-the-table dealings with the Chinese in multi-million dollar construction projects. Osafo Maafo's supporters shot back and accused Kyerematen of diverting Presidential Special Initiatives (PSI) funds and mismanaging the project. Former FM Nana Akuffo Addo has also repeatedly attacked his long time rival Kyerematen. The media, for its part, continues to hype up the rivalries between different ethnic factions in the NPP. ¶6. (SBU) Questions have also been raised about the integrity of the NPP selection process, as both Vice President Aliu Mahama and Alan Kyerematen publicly protested the publication of personal details from their party files by a newspaper. They insisted that those details were submitted to the NPP's vetting committee only. In the ensuing outcry, the Party's national headquarters denied any wrongdoing, and declined to explain or investigate the matter. Rallying the Troops in a Shifting Political Landscape: -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) As aspirants continue to canvass for delegates' votes, rank and file party members seem to be growing disillusioned. Some have publicly criticized the government's policies. Unemployment, poverty, corruption, and the high cost of living, have led to this disillusionment, including in NPP strongholds. Candidates have also waged expensive campaigns, raising questions about the source of funds. Some frustration appears to stem from the perceived gap between the continued high levels of poverty among ordinary Ghanaians and the high expectations for material prosperity created by the NPP in 2000 and 2004. NPP Privately Worries about a Loss Next Year -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In recent weeks, some NPP activists have confided to us that the threat of losing the 2008 election is real. They believe that a malaise exists among party members, but do not seem to have a plan to repair the party's divisions. Meanwhile, John Atta Mills of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) seems to be gaining ground. Notably, he appears to have growing support in the ACCRA 00002587 002 OF 002 Central Region - historically a strong region for the NPP. In an internal NPP memo circulated last month, the party's regional executive warned NPP national headquarters of "the positive gains Mills' door-to-door campaign has made to the disadvantage of the NPP." The memo said some NPP supporters may not participate in the election and focus group discussions have revealed that many supporters feel "government is ignoring ordinary voters." Who Will Win? -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Because of the number of aspirants, including a handful of serious candidates, it is unclear who will win the NPP nomination on December 22. As this is the first democratic succession for an incumbent NPP, the struggle is replete with suspicion and intrigue. The mistrust among the aspirants and their supporters has increased, leading both pundits and party activists to question the party's cohesiveness. ¶10. (SBU) While the NDC is unified around a candidate and is quietly watching the NPP political infighting, it appears that the NPP is tearing itself apart. Many pundits claim that Kufuor is using his influence to push delegates to support his favored candidate, Alan Kyerematen. As this occurs, the nomination is becoming antagonistic and divisive. Kufuor's leadership style and policies have alienated important elements of the party, and some delegates may vote against Kyerematen to signal their displeasure at Kufuor's actions. ¶11. (SBU) To win the national election, the NPP must select a candidate capable of attracting nationwide support, counter its Ashanti/Akan tag, and persuade its disaffected supporters to vote. Retaining core support in Ashanti, Eastern, Central and Western regions and improving on 2004 electoral records in Greater Accra, Northern and Volta regions are essential to retaining power. Party officials understand this logic but it is still too early to tell who they will select to challenge NDC aspirant John Atta Mills to succeed Kufuor. BROWN