GHANA'S RULING NPP PREPARES FOR ELECTION 2008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ACCRA 001041

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2017
TAGS: GH PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: GHANA'S RULING NPP PREPARES FOR ELECTION 2008

REF: ACCRA 2270

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Classified By: PolChief Scott B. Ticknor for reasons 1.4 (d) and (e).


1. (C) Summary: In December, 2007, the ruling New
Patriotic Party (NPP) will hold its national convention to
select its candidate for the 2008 presidential election.
There are currently 19 NPP aspirants (although none of them
have formally registered with the party as a candidate),
including the Vice President and nine Cabinet ministers.
Others may come forward in the coming months but many are
likely to drop out in the run up to the convention. Factors
influencing the party's choice will be ethnic considerations,
party loyalty, personality, and money. At this point the
most viable candidates seem to be Vice President Mahama,
Foreign Minister Akufo-Addo, Trade Minister Kyerematen,
former Finance Minister Yaw Osafo Maafo, and Water Resources
and Housing Minister Owusu-Agyeman. End summary.

Ministerial Aspirants Will Resign
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2. (C) An NPP advisory committee has recommended December
15, 2007 as the date for the next party convention, but his
needs to be ratified in an expected party ledership meting
in June. According to NPP Nationl Organizer Lord Commey, if
the party conventionis in December, aspirants will need to
register as candidates between September and November.
According to the party's constitution, sitting ministers who
register as candidates must at that point resign from their
government positions to avoid possible conflicts of interest.
As a result, the GOG is expected to lose up to eight of its
most prominent ministers by the end of November, 2007,
including its Foreign, Defense and Trade Ministers (this rule
does not apply to the Vice President). The President has the
prerogative to replace these ministers. Commey told PolChief
that the President is likely to ask other ministers to cover
some of these portfolios temporarily, with the expectation
that he may give some of these ministers their jobs back if
they are not selected as the NPP's presidential candidate
(Commey also said the President may shuffle his Cabinet in
the next few months, which could impact some of the
presidential hopefuls.).

The Challenges
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3. (C) Despite President Kufuor's pleas that candidates not
campaign this far in advance, all the aspirants have been in
campaign mode for months. According to Lord Commey and NPP
General Secretary Nana Ohene Ntow, the large number of
aspirants and the early campaigning have generated an
unprecedented level of friction, which the party is having
difficulty managing.


4. (C) To win, the NPP will need to find support beyond its
traditional Ashanti ethnic base. It can count on core
support in the large Ashanti region and will seek to improve
on its poor 2004 results in Northern and Volta Regions.
However, Eastern, Central, Western and Greater Accra regions
had sizable numbers of floating voters in past elections and
will be the key battlegrounds in 2008. The 2,300 delegates
at the December 2007 convention (10 from each of Ghana's 230
parliamentary constituencies) will evaluate aspirants with
these ethnic and regional calculations in mind, in addition
to considering personal traits and party loyalties in
assessing who they think can beat the NDC presidential
candidate, former Vice President John Evans Atta Mills.

The Top of the Pack
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5. (C) The following information updates reftel assessment
of the most promising NPP aspirants:

Alan Kyerematen: Trade and Industry Minister Alan
Kyerematen, 51, is widely viewed by the pro-government media
as the 2008 NPP presidential front-runner. A former
Ambassador to the United States, and founding member and
Chairman of the Young Executive Forum (an NPP fund raising
group) he is moderate, amiable, media savvy, and apparently
well resourced. However, he is not widely known outside the
party. He is not a natural campaigner, especially when
compared to ther Cabinet colleagues. For some, he is
taintedby being too close to President Kufuor and his Chif
of Staff, Kwadwo Mpiani. Kyerematen is relatiely young and
therefore subjct to criticism that he lacks sufficient

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experience. Kyerematen is playing up his ethnic Fanti ties
(his father was Fanti) but he is perceived as more Ashanti
(his mother's side),which may also prove to be a liability.

Nana Akufo-Addo: Foreign Minister Nana Akufo-Addo, 63,
should be a strong contender for the presidential nomination.
He has impeccable credentials as a Founding Member of the
NPP, three-term Member of Parliament, Chairman of the
Party,s Legal committee, Ranking Member for Justice and
former Attorney General. He is smart, articulate, and a
skillful politician and was the second place finisher in the
last contested NPP primary. He is believed to have a
following that goes well beyond his traditional base in the
Eastern Region. His main liabilities are his Akyem royal
lineage (which may hurt him in the Ashanti-Akyem rivalry) and
his perceived arrogance.

Owusu-Agyeman: Hackman Owusu-Agyeman, 65, Water Resources,
Works and Housing Minister has solid credentials within the
ruling party and extensive government experience. He is a
tough, well-resourced player with a power base in the Eastern
Region. He operates cautiously and has so far kept himself
busy in seven regions (Eastern, Central, Ashanti, Western,
Greater Accra, Northern and Upper East) safely away from the
media glare, although that is getting difficult to maintain
now. He represents the conservative strand in the party and
is likely to earn the support of the old guard. Other
contenders increasingly treat him as a strong challenger.

Osafo-Maafo: Yaw Osafo-Maafo, 64, has long been a leading
member of President Kufuor,s government, first as Finance
Minister and later as Education and Sports Minister. Osafo
Maafo's wit, stature in the ruling party, grip on the economy
and knowledge about government economic policies make him a
formidable candidate. He is popular in parliament and his
campaign activists claim party supporters greeted him
ecstatically when he visited Ashanti, Northern, Western and
Central regions. However, President Kufuor dropped him in a
2006 Cabinet reshuffle and is reportedly openly campaigning
against him as a presidential candidate. He attacked Alan
Kyerematen early in the campaign, sowing bitterness in some
parts of the party. Allegations of corruption and abuse of
the procurement process cloud his prospects.

Aliu Mahama: At this point, Vice President Alhaji Aliu
Mahama appears the least likely of this top group to win the
nomination. He does not talk openly about his presidential
bid but has continued canvassing for votes among potential
party delegates. His strategy has been to support the
president's program and use every opportunity on official
tours to project himself. He may do well among Ashantis who
recognize the anti-Ashanti sentiment in the country but want
a non-Akyem candidate (his campaign coordinator in Ashanti
claims Aliu controls about 25% of delegates in the region).
While he has name recognition, Aliu is not widely viewed as
charismatic or politically savvy. Although he is the only
Northerner and Muslim in the race, he cannot shepherd the
northern/Muslim bloc vote to his advantage. Even in his own
constituency, the NPP is deeply divided. Aliu is unpopular
within a part of the Muslim community and his ability to
appeal to the 69% Christian population is questionable.

Two Wild Cards
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6. (C) Dan Botwe and Papa Owusu-Ankomah are unlikely to win
the ticket but are wild cards that bear watching. Botwe,
former General Secretary for two terms and until last year
Minister for Information, has spent months wooing party
youths and potential delegates in Eastern, Ashanti, Brong
Ahafo, Upper East and Upper West regions. He is an attractive
candidate with strong support within the party leadership but
his youth (49 years old) and lack of funds are serious
handicaps. Papa Owusu-Ankomah, former Majority Leader of
Parliament, Attorney General, and Minister of Interior, and
currently Minister of Education, Science and Sports,
reportedly enjoys excellent relations with the President. He
has roots in the Western, Eastern Region and Central Regions,
which should benefit him as a candidate. Nonetheless, his
late start and lack of charisma make him a dark horse.

The Second String
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7. (C) The remaining aspirants are unlikely to make much
impact. These include: Addo Kufuor (Minister of Defense and
the President's brother),Kofi Konadu Apraku (former Regional

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Integration Minister),Jake Obetsebi-Lamptey (Minister of
Tourism and Diasporan Relations),Kwabena Agyepong (former
Presidential Press Secretary),Professor Kwabena Frimpong
Boateng (a heart surgeon),Mike Oquaye (Communications
Minister and professor of political science),Felix Owusu
Adjapong (Minister of Parliamentary Affairs),and Arthur
Kennedy (a U.S. based doctor).

Comment
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8. (C) NPP sources expect no more than ten aspirants will
formally register, while many who are in the race for
publicity or to position themselves for future leadership
positions will drop out over the next few months. It is
still early in the game and many things could influence the
race. In the past few weeks, for example, Alan Kyerematen
has been battling allegations of impropriety and conflict of
interest in a loan he approved to a parastatal, which could
seriously hurt his presidential bid. We expect plenty of
horse-trading in the coming months as intra-party friction
intensifies.
BRIDGEWATER