REVIEW OF NEEDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF NEEDS-2

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000953 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PASS TO USTR FOR LAGAMA TREASURY FOR DAN PETERS USDOC FOR 3317/ITA/OA/KBURRESS USDOC FOR 3130/USFC/OIO/ANESA/DHARRIS DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD ENRG PINR NI SUBJECT: REVIEW OF NEEDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF NEEDS-2 REF: ABUJA 887 ABUJA 00000953 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. Summary. On May 3, 2007, the Government of Nigeria (GON) presented a review of its National Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) and the status of its successor, NEEDS-2. NEEDS exceeded it targets but development challenges remain. NEEDS-2 takes a medium- term outlook from 2008-2011 aimed at reducing poverty by 30%, generating an average annual GDP growth rate of 10%, and creating 10 million new jobs. Agriculture is the "engine" expected to drive the economy, eliminate food imports, and generate $3 billion in exports. Massive investments totaling $12.8 billion for infrastructure and tapping large gas reserves in the Niger Delta expected to generate $10 billion yearly are contingent on continued economic reforms and a favorable political environment. The final draft of NEEDS-2 is scheduled to be presented to the President by May 18, who will review it and hand it over to the new administration before May 29, 2007. Stay tuned. End Summary. ¶2. On May 3, 2007, Senator Abdulla Wali, Deputy Chairman of the National Planning Commission presented a review of its National Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) and the status of its successor, NEEDS-2. NEEDS covered 2003-2007. Its gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, non-oil sector growth, poverty incidence and inflation targets were exceeded in 2004-2006. Another key area, oil sector growth, was targeted at "zero" increases, but exceeded the targets for every year except 2006, when sabotage in the Niger Delta resulted in a 4.5% loss. Exchange rates have been stable and parallel and official rates converged with the introduction of the Wholesale Dutch Action. External reserves grew from $7.68 billion in 2004 to $42 billion at the end of 2006 (446% increase!) vs. the NEEDS target of 26% growth from 2004- ¶2007. From 2004-2006 agriculture was the largest contributor to GDP followed by petroleum, solid minerals, telecommunication, and manufacturing. Telecoms, manufacturing, solid minerals, agriculture and petroleum led the overall growth rate. Poverty Reduction and Wealth Creation -------------- ¶3. The 2006 Core Welfare Indicator Survey, a national survey that monitors poverty and living standards at the national, state and local levels, showed living standards had improved with increased access to drinking water (84%, NEEDS target was 70%) and electricity (54%). The NEEDS report claims progress in reducing poverty; in 1996 there was a poverty incidence level of 65.6% based on a population of 102.3 million and in 2004 the poverty incidence level dropped to 54.4% with a population increase of over 126 million. Adult Literacy rate is 64.2%, youth literacy rate 76.5%, with access to primary education at 74.6% and secondary education at 46.3%. The target for increasing the adult literacy rate from 57%- 65% was accomplished. (Comment: Much of the "poverty reduction" is achieved by redefining the poverty line down to about two-thirds of the previous level. On education, access is not the same as enrolled. The Education Ministry provided numbers estimating 50% of primary school-age children were attending school. End Comment) ¶4. There have been 110 privatization transactions and 21 port concessions completed between 1999-2006 with over $4 billion from sales between 2005 and 2006. Since pension reforms were introduced in 2004, funds have reached close to 1 billion naira. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and the Independent Corrupt Practice Commission have worked to curb corruption and graft. Public service reforms are being extended after an initial nine pilot government agencies reduced staff by 35% and eight thousand ghost workers were discovered and removed. NEEDS 2 -------------- ABUJA 00000953 002.2 OF 003 ¶5. NEED-2 hopes to reduce poverty in a growing population by dealing with massive unemployment, increase development in the Niger Delta, bridge human and physical infrastructure gaps, and link science, technology and research to real sector performance. As in the initial NEEDS, NEEDS-2 will have a four-year timeframe from 2008- 2011 to address employment generation, poverty reduction, and wealth creation. NEED-2 aims to reduce poverty by 30% by 2011, support an average 10% GDP growth rate, and generate 10 million new jobs in the informal and formal sectors. It assumes continued economic reforms, macroeconomic stability, improved infrastructure, favorable oil prices, single digit inflation and investment of 9%-10% annually. The major drivers will be the agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, communications and oil and gas sectors. All of this is also contingent on a favorable political environment. The final draft is scheduled to be presented to the President by May 18. President Obasanjo is expected to review and hand over the plan to the incoming administration prior to the May 29 handover. ¶6. Agriculture is expected to grow at an average of 11% annually, with a zero net food imports by 2011. This is in line with GON commitment to make agriculture the "engine" to drive rapid economic growth, poverty alleviation, non-oil exports and job creation. Proposed strategies to achieve this include progressive elimination of food imports, and fast tracking credit to the rural level. In manufacturing, NEEDS-2 hopes to increase growth rates above 10% annually, and capacity utilization from 55% to 80% by 2011. The strategies include targeted incentives to link production and research institutions, improved infrastructure and better access to credit for small and medium enterprises. (Comment: Food import bans have encouraged smuggling rather than increased food production, and specialized credit programs have a poor track record. End Comment.) ¶7. The NEED-2 offers very aggressive targets in infrastructure. Electrical generation is to grow to 17,000 megawatts (mw) by 2011, raising existing per capita consumption from 105 kilowatts per hour (kwh) to over 500kwh all requiring a minimum investment of $12.8 billion. It also calls for the development of alternative energy; public/private sector partnerships and a new pricing framework. In communications, the targets are to increase teledensity to half of the national population by providing up to 90 million fixed and cellular telephone lines and broad band service to 75% of residents in state capitals. (Note: The Nigerian Communications Satellite (NIGCOMSAT-1) was launched by China. This is the first time that a foreign power has purchased a Chinese satellite and its launching service. The satellite is expected to offer broadcasting, telecommunications and broadband internet services for Africa. End note) ¶8. In the oil and gas sector, crude oil reserves are expected to increase to 40 billion barrels and production capacity to 4.5 million barrels per day. Gas flaring is slated to end and Nigeria hopes to tap its large gas reserves to contribute $10 billion per year. The government is targeting 70% local content in this sector by 2011. The plan calls for competitive and transparent bidding and allocation of oil blocks, alternative funding schemes, a comprehensive oil and gas policy, long-term financing for local content and cost effective domestic pricing. ¶9. The education sector is supposed to increase basic educational enrollment by 6% annually and achieve a teacher/pupil ratio of 1:35 in primary school, and see all students move from primary to junior secondary school. Enrollment in "quality" tertiary education institutions is to rise from 1.3 million to 2.5 million students; girls' enrollment is to rise by 50% in six states. Other targets address science and technology, and ABUJA 00000953 003.2 OF 003 information technology education. ¶10. In the health sector NEED-2 seeks to reduce the current infant mortality rate of 113 per 1000 births, and the under five mortality rate of 201 per 100 births. Strategies are to strengthen public health centers and routine immunization; promote community partnerships for all health stakeholders and improve health research. Recent surveys show rates of HIV/AIDS, malaria and polio declining; however, there is some concern about the national immunization program that is being consolidated under the Ministry of Health, where it might get less attention. CAMPBELL