NIGERIA: APRIL 28 MAKE-UP ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000847 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET POSTING. DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: APRIL 28 MAKE-UP ELECTIONS REF: ABUJA 807 ABUJA 00000847 001.2 OF 002 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) Summary: The ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) continued its near-sweep of state and national races after this weekend's rescheduled elections, which were held in select parts of 27 states. Previous state or national elections in these locations were either not held on the 14th or 21st or were annulled due to lack of materials and/or irregularities. Media reports indicate that the PDP was declared the winner of most races April 28. The ruling party consolidated its power base everywhere except in Imo and Lagos states, where they lost governorships and National Assembly seats to the Peoples' Progressive Alliance (PPA) and the Action Congress (AC) respectively. The conduct of the April 28 make-up polls showed little improvement on the elections of April 14 and 21. Ballot boxes and papers were stolen in some places, while polling stations never opened in others. Where voting did occur, the turnout was extremely low due to a combination of confusion and lack of information about the rescheduled elections and voter apathy based of experiences of the previous two weekends. The make-up elections were relatively free of violence as most people ignored the process and went about their normal business. End Summary. -------------- HIGHLIGHTS OF THE ELECTIONS -------------- ¶2. (U) The major headline from the rescheduled elections was the victory of the PPA, Governor Orji Kalu's party, in the Imo state governorship race. The PPA candidate, Chief Ikedi Ohakim, defeated the PDP candidate and incumbent senator Ifeanyi Araraume and APGA candidate Chief Agbaso. In Enugu State, the PDP's Sullivan Chime was declared the governor-elect after polling was re-run in only four local government areas (LGAs),despite widespread views that polling never happened in most of the state on April 14. All political parties except PDP and the Accord Party boycotted the April 28 Enugu gubernatorial polls after INEC proceeded with the four LGA only make-up election in defiance of an Enugu Federal High Court order. Kaduna's governor Ahmed Makarfi, wife of Niger state governor Hajia Zainab Kure, and President Obasanjo's daughter Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello won senatorial seats in their respective states. The wife of the PDP National Chairman, Mrs. Maryam Ali, whose candidacy had earlier created bad blood between the chairman and President Obasanjo, was not as lucky as she lost to incumbent Senator Patrick Osakwe. Controversial Senator Uche Chukwumerije, who decamped to the PPA from the PDP to escape sanctions for his role in the defeat of the third term project, was returned to the Senate on the platform of his new party. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶3. (U) The make-up elections were characterized by low turnout and general voter apathy throughout the country. Nigerians interviewed by journalists on the day of the elections expressed disgust at the conduct and outcome of the April 14 and 21 elections and wondered why anyone would waste his/her time to show up on. April 28. The conduct of the rescheduled elections was similar to the original polls, where malpractices and irregularities prevailed. ¶4. (SBU) As the May 29 handover date draws nearer, there are mixed reactions regarding the way forward. While some people have called for outright cancellation of the elections and the formation of an interim government to conduct fresh elections in about three months, others have urged aggrieved politicians to seek redress at the election tribunals. There are yet others who, despite acknowledging the elections were seriously flawed, have urged Nigerians to accept the outcome to ensure that President Obasanjo vacates office. Civil society and some opposition parties have vowed to resist the outcome of the elections and claim to be mobilizing the citizenry for mass action. However, neither civil society ABUJA 00000847 002.2 OF 002 nor the opposition parties are very organized or united. Some minor opposition parties have already pledged support for Yar'Adua, while bureaucrats are already jostling for positions in the Yar'Adua government. It would be difficult for Nigeria's impoverished citizenry to embark on any sustained mass action and most of the politicians calling for protests are viewed to have at one time or the other been products of previous flawed elections. There is, however, a consensus amongst most Nigerians that the 2007 elections may have been the worst ever in the history of the country. CAMPBELL