COUP RUMORS STOKED BY DISGRUNTLED MILITARY

S E C R E T ABUJA 000822

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: COUP RUMORS STOKED BY DISGRUNTLED MILITARY


Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d).


1. (S) Recent reporting in other agency channels coincides
with rumors heard by Poloffs about a disgruntled military
considering its future. There are several irritants that
feed this chatter. Just prior to the election season, the
Presidency promised pay raises for both police and military,
apparently in the hopes of buying the cooperation of the
security services during the elections. However, the promised
raises have not materialized. According to many contacts,
discontent about wages has created an environment in which
security officers complain that the pay raise was simply an
empty promise intended to stop security forces from
supporting the election process in an unbiased fashion.


2. (S) Another irritant for the military is the
announcement and implementation several months ago of a
subsidized loan program to help soldiers buy automobiles or
motorcycles. The program offers vehicles at a substantial
discount and requires the soldiers to pay the loan back
through a payroll deduction scheme. The problem is that the
only vehicles delivered thus far have gone to the more senior
military leaders and and there has been no word on when
others might benefit. However, deductions are being withheld
from the paychecks of most soldiers, whether or not they have
received a vehicle.


3. (S) The third factor breeding discontent is the conduct
of the elections themselves. Many in the military have taken
to heart the pronouncements of President Obasanjo and senior
military leadership during the past eight years about the
importance of supporting democracy and the constitution.
Contrary to this democratic ideal, soldiers and police more
recently heard exhortations that the military should back
President Obsanjo and support the PDP's efforts to control
the outcome of the elections, and they witnessed the level of
government interference in the election. The gap between
democratic rhetoric and actual conduct has caused many in the
military to take a more jaundiced view of pro-democracy
pronouncements.


4. (S) Senior leadership in the military have given mixed
signals in their discussions with USG representatives. Some
declare flatly that there is no coup planning underway, while
others admit that the irritants listed above have at least
created an environment that could allow military officers
upset about the failures of the democratic process to begin
planning something. The mere admission that coup planning is
a possibility is troubling, but not unexpected. The senior
leadership unanimously agrees that no one in their ranks is
contemplating an extraconstitutional action. However, as one
senior military officer points out, any coup planning by the
junior officer ranks would not necessarily come to the
attention of headquarters. Overall, the political and
security environments remain tense, but despite security
officials' disappointment over the election process, we have
no information to indicate any among them are planning to
overthrow the government at this time.
CAMPBELL