COUP RUMORS STOKED BY DISGRUNTLED MILITARY

S E C R E T ABUJA 000822 SIPDIS SIPDIS DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: COUP RUMORS STOKED BY DISGRUNTLED MILITARY Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (S) Recent reporting in other agency channels coincides with rumors heard by Poloffs about a disgruntled military considering its future. There are several irritants that feed this chatter. Just prior to the election season, the Presidency promised pay raises for both police and military, apparently in the hopes of buying the cooperation of the security services during the elections. However, the promised raises have not materialized. According to many contacts, discontent about wages has created an environment in which security officers complain that the pay raise was simply an empty promise intended to stop security forces from supporting the election process in an unbiased fashion. ¶2. (S) Another irritant for the military is the announcement and implementation several months ago of a subsidized loan program to help soldiers buy automobiles or motorcycles. The program offers vehicles at a substantial discount and requires the soldiers to pay the loan back through a payroll deduction scheme. The problem is that the only vehicles delivered thus far have gone to the more senior military leaders and and there has been no word on when others might benefit. However, deductions are being withheld from the paychecks of most soldiers, whether or not they have received a vehicle. ¶3. (S) The third factor breeding discontent is the conduct of the elections themselves. Many in the military have taken to heart the pronouncements of President Obasanjo and senior military leadership during the past eight years about the importance of supporting democracy and the constitution. Contrary to this democratic ideal, soldiers and police more recently heard exhortations that the military should back President Obsanjo and support the PDP's efforts to control the outcome of the elections, and they witnessed the level of government interference in the election. The gap between democratic rhetoric and actual conduct has caused many in the military to take a more jaundiced view of pro-democracy pronouncements. ¶4. (S) Senior leadership in the military have given mixed signals in their discussions with USG representatives. Some declare flatly that there is no coup planning underway, while others admit that the irritants listed above have at least created an environment that could allow military officers upset about the failures of the democratic process to begin planning something. The mere admission that coup planning is a possibility is troubling, but not unexpected. The senior leadership unanimously agrees that no one in their ranks is contemplating an extraconstitutional action. However, as one senior military officer points out, any coup planning by the junior officer ranks would not necessarily come to the attention of headquarters. Overall, the political and security environments remain tense, but despite security officials' disappointment over the election process, we have no information to indicate any among them are planning to overthrow the government at this time. CAMPBELL