BUHARI'S CHALLENGE "IN THE INTEREST OF DEMOCRACY"

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: BUHARI'S CHALLENGE "IN THE INTEREST OF DEMOCRACY"

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Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu
Buhari discussed his view of Nigeria's future with the
Ambassador on April 27 just before leaving for Kaduna. END
SUMMARY.

ELECTIONS AND THE PDP
--------------


2. (C) Ambassador began the conversation by expressing
concern about the levels of violence throughout the elections
and asked about dialogue between the opposition parties, the
Obasanjo government and Gov. Yar'Adua to encourage
non-violent protest from turning violent. The Ambassador also
referred to the importance of using the election tribunal and
other judicial means to resolve electoral disputes. Buhari
responded emphatically that there is no dialogue and that the
ANPP could not "participate in anything the so-called
Yar'Adua government will do."


3. (C) Buhari opened by describeding the Council of State
meeting before the April 14 election, where Obasanjo briefed
the group on elections preparations. In the meeting,
Nigeria's National Security Adviser reported that Obasanjo
had given funding to the Army to ensure the security of both
persons and ballots on election day. He complained that he
had been misquoted in the press during a subsequent tour of
INEC facilities, where he was quoted as saying that "from
what I saw, INEC is ready." Buhari complained that his
follow-on comment that the "test is in the field" was ignored
in the media. As proof of the fraudulent nature of
elections, Buhari said, the presidential election results
were announced by INEC in Abuja when only 11 states and the
FCT had completed counting.


4. (C) Buhari blamed Obasanjo, personally, for the
electoral problems. He complained that Obasanjo had wasted
billions of Naira to "give cover to a fraud" and speculated
that Obasanjo's orders to the security services were to
"subvert the system" rather than protect its integrity.
Buhari continued that Nigeria "will not accept a Yar'Adua
government; it is not democratic." He said that Yar'Adua had
been dragged into the election by President Obasanjo. Buhari
said Yar'Adua could not be his own man, pointing to prss
reports that Obasanjo was naming members of Yar'Adua's
cabinet. "The master should not be in sight, even when
controlling his puppet," Buhari opined.

POLITICAL OPPOSITION AND NEXT STEPS
--------------


5. (C) Buhari said "I wish I knew where Nigeria is headed".
His economic adviser, Abba Kyari, said that there is a
"swell of discontent" throughout Nigeria and no one is going
to sit for this." Kyari claimed that not only is popular
anger great, but also that the elite is angered and
embarrassed. Buhari said that his earlier statement that he
will not appeal to the elections tribunals still stands, but
the ANPP party will go. "It is my party," Buhari stated, and
we are "helping the party collect data for the tribunal." In
any event, he said, two tracks of opposition will run in
parallel: both the courts and demonstrations.


6. (C) Buhari said the three main opposition parties (ANPP,
AC, and PPA),the Nigerian Labour Congress and other civil
society organizations (CSOs) are working to come up with a
sustainable program of public demonstrations to ensure a
democratic handover. He said the first step is to plan
rallies commemorating Labour Day on May 1. Buhari said the
parties and CSOs had set up a committee to coordinate efforts
and promised that the group would "continue even if Yar'Adua
is sworn in on May 29." He maintained that the group would
protest the imposition of the electoral results in a peaceful
way, and stressed that "we do not believe this election
should stand." Kyari added that what Nigeria needed at this
moment was a "controlled explosion."


7. (C) Buhari agreed that following the constitutional
process was important, but said elections should also be
conducted under constitutional guidelines. He said that

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Obasanjo is incapable of running elections, but that an
interim government could. He said the Chief Justice, as head
of an interim government, could arrange and run elections
within six months and that the Chief Justice "is not like
Obasanjo; he does not lie."


8. (C) Buhari said he is out of touch with the military and
its inner workings, but said he is "afraid of where they are
headed." For years, Buhari said, the military and other
security services were proud of their professionalism but
their compromising involvement with rigging the April 14 and
21 elections brings this into question. Buhari said he had
believed they would stay professional during the elections,
but instead, he claimed, "they were used by thugs." "Their
lack of professionalism is evident," he maintained.

ISSUES ACCORDING TO BUHARI
--------------


9. (C) Buhari stressed that "democracy itself is under
attack, and May 29 will not be the end" if this election
stands. Kyari corrected him, saying that democracy has
already been attacked and must be defended. Kyari went on to
say that the issue is not the ANPP or a Buhari candidacy, but
the very survival of democracy in Nigeria. He said that the
April elections challenge Nigerians' self-esteem and pride,
and Buhari questioned whether Nigeria was "on the road to
democracy or just degenerating into dictatorship."

10..(C) Stressing that these un-democratic elections were
not acceptable to the ANPP and Nigeria, Kyari noted that the
US-Nigeria relationship "is not one-way." "The US wants
Nigeria to be stable, but we need stability here more than
you," he said.


11. (C) Buhari commented that this is not how he had
envisioned his retirement, and said he did not need these
problems. Still, he said, "if this system is
institutionalized, Nigeria will continue to suffer." He said
that stepping back this time would signal failure to his
supporters. Buhari pointed to his "continued statements"
since his 2004 visit to the US that "the biggest investment
the international community could make in developing
countries is in free and fair elections." Political and
economic development under this dispensation is impossible,
he claimed, and promised that if Nigerians have a chance to
elect leaders they can trust, the stability of the country
will be ensured. "Compromising democracy is not in question.
The principle is the important issue" he concluded.


12. (C) COMMENT: Buhari was calm and focussed throughout
the conversation and repeatedly stressed his belief that any
demonstrations against the elections would be non-violent.
In his view, democracy is the issue, and compromise is not
possible with the beneficiaries of the "corrupt process."
CAMPBELL