BUHARI'S CHALLENGE "IN THE INTEREST OF DEMOCRACY"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000809 SIPDIS SIPDIS DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS SUBJECT: BUHARI'S CHALLENGE "IN THE INTEREST OF DEMOCRACY" ABUJA 00000809 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari discussed his view of Nigeria's future with the Ambassador on April 27 just before leaving for Kaduna. END SUMMARY. ELECTIONS AND THE PDP -------------- ¶2. (C) Ambassador began the conversation by expressing concern about the levels of violence throughout the elections and asked about dialogue between the opposition parties, the Obasanjo government and Gov. Yar'Adua to encourage non-violent protest from turning violent. The Ambassador also referred to the importance of using the election tribunal and other judicial means to resolve electoral disputes. Buhari responded emphatically that there is no dialogue and that the ANPP could not "participate in anything the so-called Yar'Adua government will do." ¶3. (C) Buhari opened by describeding the Council of State meeting before the April 14 election, where Obasanjo briefed the group on elections preparations. In the meeting, Nigeria's National Security Adviser reported that Obasanjo had given funding to the Army to ensure the security of both persons and ballots on election day. He complained that he had been misquoted in the press during a subsequent tour of INEC facilities, where he was quoted as saying that "from what I saw, INEC is ready." Buhari complained that his follow-on comment that the "test is in the field" was ignored in the media. As proof of the fraudulent nature of elections, Buhari said, the presidential election results were announced by INEC in Abuja when only 11 states and the FCT had completed counting. ¶4. (C) Buhari blamed Obasanjo, personally, for the electoral problems. He complained that Obasanjo had wasted billions of Naira to "give cover to a fraud" and speculated that Obasanjo's orders to the security services were to "subvert the system" rather than protect its integrity. Buhari continued that Nigeria "will not accept a Yar'Adua government; it is not democratic." He said that Yar'Adua had been dragged into the election by President Obasanjo. Buhari said Yar'Adua could not be his own man, pointing to prss reports that Obasanjo was naming members of Yar'Adua's cabinet. "The master should not be in sight, even when controlling his puppet," Buhari opined. POLITICAL OPPOSITION AND NEXT STEPS -------------- ¶5. (C) Buhari said "I wish I knew where Nigeria is headed". His economic adviser, Abba Kyari, said that there is a "swell of discontent" throughout Nigeria and no one is going to sit for this." Kyari claimed that not only is popular anger great, but also that the elite is angered and embarrassed. Buhari said that his earlier statement that he will not appeal to the elections tribunals still stands, but the ANPP party will go. "It is my party," Buhari stated, and we are "helping the party collect data for the tribunal." In any event, he said, two tracks of opposition will run in parallel: both the courts and demonstrations. ¶6. (C) Buhari said the three main opposition parties (ANPP, AC, and PPA),the Nigerian Labour Congress and other civil society organizations (CSOs) are working to come up with a sustainable program of public demonstrations to ensure a democratic handover. He said the first step is to plan rallies commemorating Labour Day on May 1. Buhari said the parties and CSOs had set up a committee to coordinate efforts and promised that the group would "continue even if Yar'Adua is sworn in on May 29." He maintained that the group would protest the imposition of the electoral results in a peaceful way, and stressed that "we do not believe this election should stand." Kyari added that what Nigeria needed at this moment was a "controlled explosion." ¶7. (C) Buhari agreed that following the constitutional process was important, but said elections should also be conducted under constitutional guidelines. He said that ABUJA 00000809 002.2 OF 002 Obasanjo is incapable of running elections, but that an interim government could. He said the Chief Justice, as head of an interim government, could arrange and run elections within six months and that the Chief Justice "is not like Obasanjo; he does not lie." ¶8. (C) Buhari said he is out of touch with the military and its inner workings, but said he is "afraid of where they are headed." For years, Buhari said, the military and other security services were proud of their professionalism but their compromising involvement with rigging the April 14 and 21 elections brings this into question. Buhari said he had believed they would stay professional during the elections, but instead, he claimed, "they were used by thugs." "Their lack of professionalism is evident," he maintained. ISSUES ACCORDING TO BUHARI -------------- ¶9. (C) Buhari stressed that "democracy itself is under attack, and May 29 will not be the end" if this election stands. Kyari corrected him, saying that democracy has already been attacked and must be defended. Kyari went on to say that the issue is not the ANPP or a Buhari candidacy, but the very survival of democracy in Nigeria. He said that the April elections challenge Nigerians' self-esteem and pride, and Buhari questioned whether Nigeria was "on the road to democracy or just degenerating into dictatorship." 10..(C) Stressing that these un-democratic elections were not acceptable to the ANPP and Nigeria, Kyari noted that the US-Nigeria relationship "is not one-way." "The US wants Nigeria to be stable, but we need stability here more than you," he said. ¶11. (C) Buhari commented that this is not how he had envisioned his retirement, and said he did not need these problems. Still, he said, "if this system is institutionalized, Nigeria will continue to suffer." He said that stepping back this time would signal failure to his supporters. Buhari pointed to his "continued statements" since his 2004 visit to the US that "the biggest investment the international community could make in developing countries is in free and fair elections." Political and economic development under this dispensation is impossible, he claimed, and promised that if Nigerians have a chance to elect leaders they can trust, the stability of the country will be ensured. "Compromising democracy is not in question. The principle is the important issue" he concluded. ¶12. (C) COMMENT: Buhari was calm and focussed throughout the conversation and repeatedly stressed his belief that any demonstrations against the elections would be non-violent. In his view, democracy is the issue, and compromise is not possible with the beneficiaries of the "corrupt process." CAMPBELL