FCT MINISTER'S UPDATE ON PDP ELECTION PREPARATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000077

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: FCT MINISTER'S UPDATE ON PDP ELECTION PREPARATION

REF: ABUJA 0061

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Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b & d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: FCT Minister el-Rufai called on Ambassador
January 11 to provide a political update. He stressed the
importance of the upcoming elections and said the PDP
remained popular, but needed to exhibit "greater humility" to
win voter support. He commented that PDP candidates Umaru
Yar'Adua and Goodluck Jonathan were "the only two governors
that could scale the EFCC hurdle" and that President Obasanjo
was now busy "selling his reforms and his candidates to the
PDP." Dismissing Vice President Atiku, he said that the
election was a two-party race between ANPP's Buhari and PDP's
Yar'Adua, but that the PDP's "funding mechanisms and
structures" would carry the day. Off to a slow start, he
assured the Ambassador that progress towards free and fair
elections was "on track." His comments, while sticking to
the PDP line in general, left an impression that he
personally was opening up the Buhari issue, perhaps in
consideration of his own future post-Obasanjo. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) Minister of the Federal Capital Territory Nasir
el-Rufai requested a meeting with the Ambassador to provide
an update on Nigeria's political scene. He stressed the
importance of the upcoming elections to Nigeria's development
and outlined the need for an end to rigging and coruption in
the process. He said the ruling People's Democratic Party
(PDP) remained popular, but needed to exhibit "greater
humility" to win voter support. According to Rufai,
Nigerians will support the PDP and Yar'Adua because President
Obasanjo's economic reforms are "popular" throughout the
country and Nigerians want them to continue. "They are just
somehow tired of the President," he said. He also posited
that the PDP needed to show "greater humility" to the public
to ensure that Nigerians believe that the elections are
credible.

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Yar'Adua and Goodluck
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3. (C) Rufai said that the PDP's candidates, Governors
Umaru Yar'Adua from Katsina and Goodluck Jonathan from
Bayelsa, were "thrown up by the party." He characterized
Yar'Adua as "clean" and someone who has managed his state
well. According to el-Rufai, Yar'Adua was reluctant, but
acquiesced at the request of the President. On his own
candidacy, el-Rufai said he had never wanted the Presidency,
but others had promoted him. "When President Obasanjo called
me in to ask about my intentions, I told him that I would do
it, but that I had not campaigned for the position," el-Rufai
explained. According to el-Rufai, the President agreed with
him and told him that there were "other bridges to cross"
before el-Rufai was ready. The Minister said that the
Presidency has been working with Yar'Adua "from the
beginning," but they had wanted to keep his candidacy a
secret so that others could not frustrate his prospects. He

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described Yar'Adua as an "odd fellow" - an introvert who
rarely traveled and said that Yar'Adua had kidney problems
"in the past." He claimed that the Governor had not visited
Lagos "for many years," and said that some think Yar'Adua's
last trip to Lagos was in 1991. Rufai said he had known
Yar'Adua for over 25 years and that Yar'Adua had shown
himself to be an independent thinker since his decision to
oppose politically both his father and his late brother,
Shehu Yar'Adua, in the 1979 elections.


4. (C) The Minister said the PDP leadership had pushed for
Rivers Governor Peter Odili as the Vice Presidential
candidate, but that Odili, along wtih Governors Makarfi
(Kaduna) and Mu'azu (Bauchi),face "integrity issues" at the
Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC),thus
eliminating them from contention. Yar'Adua and Jonathan
"were the only two governors that could have cleared the EFCC
hurdle," Rufai said. Further, he said that Gov. Goodluck
Jonathan of Bayelsa was the only candidate that met
Obasanjo's guidelines - honest and Ijaw.

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Party Politics
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5. (C) The Minister claimed that the PDP has a strong
candidate but that its "funding mechanisms and structures"
are the things that will ensure its win. Rufai pointed out
that the PDP is "not really a political party" but rather
like a franchise operation with 37 branches. He said that
the Governors control party structures in their respective
states and were virtually independent of the National
Headquarter's control. Rufai worried that PDP has internal
problems and its membership is currently in a bit of
disarray. As a result of the Party conventions, el-Rufai
said that 15 governors, 50 senators and 200 members of the
House of Representatives remain "disgruntled" for a variety
of reasons. "We do not know why sitting members of the
National Assembly failed to secure re-nomination and we (the
Presidency) do not know how that happened," he claimed. He
highlighted the fact that one of the most important issues
facing the PDP was "reconciliation" of the disparate groups
of PDP politicians. The Minister complained that "everyone
expects the PDP to rig" and the Government wanted to make
sure enough international monitors were in place to keep the
"opposition" from "setting us up as riggers."


6. (C) Rufai said the reconciliation was not only important
in order to win the elections, but also to ensure the passage
of "a lot of important legislation" coming in the next few
months. Further, he said, the President wanted to keep the
National Assembly from doing "something silly" like
impeaching the President. Rufai commented that the
impeachment process was already under way but dismissed the
likelihood that it could succeed.


7. (C) Another task facing the PDP, el-Rufai said, was to
"sell President Obasanjo's reforms" to the party membership.
Until now, he continued, Nigerians view the reforms as the
President's and not the party's. Rufai said that the PDP
"retreat" (reftel) was conceived to achieved this goal. He
said that the President wanted the PDP to be a political
party like one in the West. He said that either a U.K., a
U.S. or a Thai political consulting firm would be hired on a
"multi-million dollar" contract to make sure the PDP's
campaign was credible.

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Other Candidates
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8. (C) Rufai said that 2007 would produce "a first in
Nigeria's history" - both the opposition All Nigeria People's
Party (ANPP) and the PDP would have honest candidates on the
ballot. He characterized ANPP candidate Muhammadu Buhari as
"a strong candidate" and one that Nigerians view as both
credible and honest. Rufai claimed to be in "regular
contact" with Buhari and said that the race for the
Presidency was "between the ANPP and the PDP." He dismissed
the chances of Vice President Atiku Abubakar, his own former
mentor. The Minister commented that there had been
disagreement within the Presidency over declaring the Vice
President's seat vacant. "We wanted to wait for a court
decision," he said. Rufai claimed not to know what Atiku's
next step might be, but opined confidently that "INEC will
surely disqualify him."

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On Elections
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9. (C) The Minister acknowledged that there were problems
at first with the voters registration, but declared that
"everything is now on track." He dismissed the census as
"merely a distraction," saying that questions of
redistricting cannot be addressed in time for the elections.
He did register a complaint about the census, pointing the
the 1.4 million residents of the Abuja area as grossly low.
Rufai said that his own estimate of between 5 and 7 million
residents was arrived at through a comprehensive aerial
survey and the analysis of the pictures. Still, el-Rufai
went on, he was hesitant to complain loudly since "it is my
government that released the figures."


10. (C) COMMENT: The Minister exhibited his usual
self-confident demeanor and was never at a loss for words on
any subject. His assessment of the PDP's biggest challenges
was clear-eyed, identifying PDP arrogance and party cohesion
as two of the biggest problems. Aside from his propounding

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the PDP party line, though, was an undercurrent. His mention
of Odili, Makarfi and Mu'azu as having "integrity problems"
with the EFCC serves both the PDP interest in bolstering
Yar'Adua's viability as a candidate and, interestingly, his
own reported efforts to replace Yar'Adua in the event it
became necessary (although he did not say so.) His
platitudes for Buhari, though were equally interesting. It
may be that, seeing an end to his own career in politics, he
is seeking to soften his own landing in the event the PDP is
not successful in the upcoming elections.
CAMPBELL