NIGERIAN "ELECTION" A CHARADE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000766 SIPDIS SIPDIS DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIAN "ELECTION" A CHARADE REF: A. ABUJA 759 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. ABUJA 716 ¶C. ABUJA 746 Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b & d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Serious irregularities and blatant fraud were observed around the country during Nigeria's April 21 election. In many parts of Nigeria, especially in rural areas, no voting took place. Where voting did occur, it began several hours late, turnout was low, and the conduct of the polls was similar to or worse than during the April 14 gubernatorial polls. In addition to numerous technical problems, observers witnessed blatant acts of fraud, including ballot box stuffing, voter intimidation, and falsification of results sheets. The reaction to the election has so far been less violent than last week, though some disturbances have been reported. However, the level of violence could increase as election results are announced. Atiku and Buhari have pronounced the April 21 polls a sham, while domestic and international observer groups report that the election was below international standards and worse than previous Nigerian polls. End summary. Technical Problems Persist, Rigging Observed -------------- ¶2. (C) The U.S. Mission fielded 55 observers to five of Nigeria's six geopolitical zones: nine in North East; fourteen in North-West; fourteen in North Central; eight in South East; and ten in South West. We had no observers in the South South geopolitical zone or Kano state (North West zone) due to security concerns. Mission will report more details on voting in each geopolitical zone septel. ¶3. (C) According to our observers, press accounts, and information from contacts, no polling took place in large parts of Nigeria, outside of urban centers. Our observers did not find an open polling station in Anambra or Abia states, for example, and found open polling stations only in urban areas of Borno, Gombe, and Bauchi states. Where voting did occur, turnout was low. We estimate that in places where polling did take place perhaps 10% of eligible voters cast ballots in the South, with turnout around 20% in the North. Polling stations opened late around the country due to late distribution of election materials. (Note: Presidential ballots were reprinted to add Vice President Atiku after the Supreme Court ruled in his favor April 16. The ballots reportedly arrived in Nigeria April 20 and were distributed in most of the country April 21.) Where voting did take place, our observers found on average that polling stations opened around 1400 and closed before 1800. There were a number of states where some or all National Assembly races were postponed, allegedly due to printing mistakes on the ballots. Observers also noticed more normal activity (i.e. small shops and restaurants open, farmers working their fields, children playing football) than they had seen April ¶14. This normal activity seemed to indicate voter apathy. ¶4. (C) In some polling places, voting went relatively smoothly once ballots arrived. However, the systemic technical problems reported during the April 14 election (Ref B, C) were not addressed by INEC and continued, and in some cases worsened, April 21. These problems included insufficient voting materials, poorly trained and clearly partisan INEC staff, missing voter lists and tally sheets, ballot boxes that were not sealed, and lack of privacy for voters. U.S. Mission observers believe that these technical problems were the same or in some areas worse than during the April 14 election. In addition to technical irregularities, observers witnessed blatant acts of fraud, including ballot box stuffing, voter intimidation, (not too) competitive rigging, and falsification of results sheets. For example, British observers in Enugu saw "layered" ballot boxes, where by the color of the ballots one could clearly see all Presidential ballots on the bottom, then Senatorial, then House ballots. Such layering should not be possible as individual voters were supposed to receive all three ballots at once and place them in the box after voting. In Katsina, USG observers walked in on PDP and INEC officials stealing ABUJA 00000766 002 OF 002 genuine results sheets and filling out and submitting new ones with falsified results. In Benue, U.S. observers witnessed intimidation by PDP agents and stations with low turnout but full ballot boxes. Results -------------- ¶5. (U) As of noon local time April 23, results have only been released for a few states. The early returns show resounding victories for PDP in most states, though the AC reportedly retained its seats in Lagos and the ANPP is leading in Kano. In results announced so far, PDP swept all National Assembly seats in elections in Enugu, Edo, and Osun. PDP took the majority of seats in Nasarawa, Jigawa, Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi, and Oyo. Presidential results are expected later today, April 23. Reaction -------------- ¶6. (C) Thus far, the level of violence during and immediately after the April 21 election appears lower than the previous week. Serious reported incidents include the destruction of INEC offices in Daura (Katsina),Dutse (Jigawa) and Keffi (Nasarawa),the bombing of the Excel hotel in Warri (Delta),and reported shootings of several ANPP supporters in Zaria and Kano. We fear that there will be an increase in violence once additional election results are announced. ¶7. (U) Both General Buhari (ANPP) and Vice President Atiku (AC) have rejected the results of the April 21 polls. Atiku described the election as the "worst in Nigeria's history," claimed that 70% of the country had been disenfranchised, and urged cancellation of the results. Buhari similarly criticized the election and publicly called upon ANPP supporters to collect evidence of malpractices to prepare for lodging protests at the election tribunals. The Transition Monitoring Group (TMG),Nigeria's largest domestic observer umbrella organization, said on April 22 that the polls were so flawed they should be scrapped and run again. At a press conference on Sunday, the International Republican Institute said that Nigeria's April 14 and 21 polls "fall below the standard set by previous Nigerian elections and international standards." The National Democratic Institute, European Union Independent Observer Mission, and TMG will hold press conferences in Abuja April 23 and we will report their findings septel. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) We expect that a landslide victory for Governor Yar'Adua and the PDP will be announced later today. Given the absence of any polling in many areas, low turnout where voting did take place, technical flaws, and rigging at all levels of the process, it would be difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions about the will of the Nigerian people from the soon to be announced results. This will especially be the case, if as we expect, announced turnouts are far in excess of the turnout we actually witnessed. Mission therefore questions whether what we witnessed this weekend can indeed be called an election. CAMPBELL