NIGERIAN ELECTIONS: KADUNA NUMBERS GAME

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000731

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN ELECTIONS: KADUNA NUMBERS GAME


Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d).


1. (C) Poloff and GSO formed one of two teams observing the
April 14 Gubernatorial elections in Nigeria's Kaduna State.
Poloff's team visited over 30 polling stations: some were in
the cities of Kaduna and Zaria, a number along the road
between them, and others off a side road to the North and
West of Zaria. A second team started in Kaduna and made a
wide swing through the southern half of Kaduna state and
visited about 20 more polling places. Both teams visited
stations in the cities, as well as large and small towns. On
the whole, while we witnessed several outbreaks of
fisticuffs, as well as some blatant cases of intimidation and
ballot box stealing, as well as a generous dose of almost
comic chaos, we found the actual conduct of the election at
least not awful in most areas.


2. (C) Throughout the day, we attempted to keep an eye on one
statistic: how many people were actually able to vote. Our
observation was that, while we found no polls open at the
official opening time of 8:00AM, they were open in most
places by 10:00 or soon thereafter. All but one station
closed by 3:15PM. Because the voter's registers (which
averaged about 500 names) at the polling stations were not
arranged in either alphabetical or numerical order, the
presiding officer at each station had to go through the
register (usually around 27 pages) to find each voter. In
the early part of the day, this process took 5 to 7 minutes
per voter. While most presiding officers got better at this
over the course of the day, our sense is that it still took
some time, with an average of about two minutes per voter
being about right and consistent with our observation over
the course of the day. Polling stations we visited in the
early afternoon were still working on their first book of 100
ballots.


3. (C) Toward the end of, or just after, the polling period,
were able to visit about nine polling stations. All but one
had started with five books, or 500 blank ballots, and had
used about one and a half books by the end of the day. A few
used slightly less, a couple slightly more. This is
consistent with the rate of about two minutes per voter we
were seeing all day and with the polls being open for about
five hours. We therefore presume the turnout in Kaduna state
was in the ballpark of 30 percent. Our colleagues who went
south from Kaduna said the polls opened a bit earlier, more
like 9:30 than 10:00, but we still think the overall turnout
was somewhere in the mid-30s.

Comment: You Do the Math
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4. (C) The announced results for Kaduna state show that the
PDP candidate won with about 1.3 million votes, and that just
under 2 million were cast in the state, which has 3.3 million
registered voters. This indicates a turnout of about 60
percent. Neither of our observer teams saw a turnout at any
single polling station anywhere near this figure, nor, based
on the procedure being followed, do we see how this would
have been physically possible in the available time. Our
sense is that something like 750,000 to 800,000 "votes" were
added to the Kaduna state total, perhaps by direct ballot
stuffing, but more likely at one of the several collation
levels after the actual polling station. Our ability to call
the Kaduna event an "election" must be tempered by this
reality. End comment.
CAMPBELL